Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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923
AXNT20 KNHC 130551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES TO 03N17W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N37W TO 03S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 15W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N89W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS TO FORT MYERS...FLORIDA. LIGHT WINDS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
SURROUND THE RIDGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. A COLD FRONT
IS NEARING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE S AND E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
17N79W TO NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE
FRONT...AND 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER W ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 70W OVER
THE WESTERN ATLC. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
MOVING SE...ARE APPROACHING 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS
ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N53W TO 25N61W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N32W
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 15N30W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 70W WILL
MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N67W TO S FL BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO



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