Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N19W 15N21W 9N22W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO
THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N24W 9N39W AND 9N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N49W TO 12N58W AND 11N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
86W AND 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N75W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N90W IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXIH...KGHB...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN
WESLACO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED
IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT..THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
88W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 18N82W...AND
13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W...
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W...
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF 32N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 32N66W BEYOND 33N56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N16W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 29N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...TO 27N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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