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000
AXNT20 KNHC 240547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
ALONG 5N53W TO 1N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 8N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 6N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N27W TO 5N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N34W 6N40W TO 10N48W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 29W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S FROM GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
E GULF E 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E
OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A
1018 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE GULF FRI AND MOVE E OF THE
BASIN SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD SAT THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W
TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI
HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE S HAITIAN PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 70W. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS
MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE S
PENINSULA OF HAITI MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING
LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA OVER THE N BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N77W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 72W-76W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
24/0300 UTC WAS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 79W-80W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N56W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W ALONG 27N38W TO 24N43W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N42W
27N48W TO 30N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NW WATERS FRI AND MOVE E THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN INTO
OPEN TROUGH NEAR 65W ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW