Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 202335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to 22N60W
to 21N70W moving E. Gale force winds are N of 27.5N within 150
nm SE of front with SW winds 25-35 KT. SEAS are 11-15 ft. This
gale ends shortly on 21/0000 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N14W
to 02N20W to 01N33W the coast of South America near 00N48W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-06N between 15W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection inland over
Texas near Houston. The NW Gulf has broken to overcast low
clouds with reduced visibilities. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle. The
remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The Gulf of Mexico has
10-15 kt S surface flow with strongest winds over the SW Gulf.
In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over N Mexico with
axis along 102W producing upper level diffluence is E of the
trough axis over SE Texas and the NW Gulf. An upper level ridge
is over the Gulf with axis along 83W. Strong subsidence is S of
25N. Expect by Sat night for a weak front to be over the NW
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are
inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Scattered showers are
elsewhere over the Windward Islands and N Venezuela from 09N-15N
between 60W-70W. A prefrontal surface trough is N of the Virgin
Islands from 21N60W to 19N65W with showers within 30 nm of
trough. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the W
Caribbean W of 75W. An upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.
Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect
over the Leeward Islands while the prefrontal surface trough
moves ESE.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather is over the island with 10-15 NE winds.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the S Bahamas near 23N73W. A
cold front is presently over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to
22N60W to 21N70W moving E. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm E of front N of 25N. Gale force winds are also SE
of front for a few more hours. See above. A 1025 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 33N27W producing fair weather.
Expect over the next 24 hours for central Atlantic front to move
slowly E with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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