Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN.

...EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND UPPER MI...
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DECAYED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MN/NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND NORTHEAST/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST/CENTRAL MN
INTO EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD BY EARLY EVENING. 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 2000-3500 J/KG.

WITH AID OF WEAK LATE-DAY HEIGHT FALLS VIA A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WEAK LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD BE A
CONSIDERABLE LIMITING FACTOR WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE
20-25 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH/ANVIL-LEVEL
WESTERLIES MAY BE A FAVORABLE FACTOR. IN ALL...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...PRESUMING SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL HEATING
AND RELATED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A
LANDSPOUT-RELATED BRIEF TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SLOWER-MOVING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...LA/FAR EAST TX...
MORNING OBSERVED UPPER-AIR DATA REFLECTS MODESTLY ENHANCED EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS LA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW
THAT IS LOCATED OFF OF THE TX COAST. NORTH OF THE ONGOING
NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT ENOUGH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SOME WESTWARD-PROPAGATING STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/PICCA.. 08/29/2016

$$



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