000
ACUS01 KWNS 251620
SWODY1
SPC AC 251619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  OTHER ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.
WHILE NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE
WEATHER.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
IL/MO.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER A GREAT DEAL OF IL/WI TODAY.
HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DECAYING MCS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IA.  PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS RISK WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED.

OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF MN AND
NORTHERN WI AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN...THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY.  THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO/WY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN KS THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER CO/KS.  BUT THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT
CAPE AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /INVERTED-V PROFILES/ WILL
RESULT IN SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS AGAIN
TODAY.  AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WY/FAR
NORTHERN CO WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER.

...AZ...
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MODERATELY HIGH TODAY WITH THE 12Z
TUS RAOB SHOWING NEARLY 1.50 INCHES OF PWAT AND CURRENT YUM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER 70F.  FULL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WELL OVER 100F IN MOST AREAS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
SLOW-MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..HART/ROGERS.. 07/25/2014