Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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418
ACUS01 KWNS 140524
SWODY1
SPC AC 140523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT...IN A CORRIDOR
FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD REGION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SCNTRL
U.S. DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF AROUND
95LON BY 15/12Z.  LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX INTO WRN TN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SWLY
LLJ ORIENTS ALONG SEWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.

LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHERE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 1KM
AGL SHOULD YIELD A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
CLOUD TOPS PENETRATING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 02/14/2016

$$



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