Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 012001
SWODY1
SPC AC 011959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KS AND MO
TO EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN AL/GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST US...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI...POSSIBLY INTO NEIGHBORING EASTERN KANSAS...OFFERING
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL ALSO ARE HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS
MOVING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND ARIZONA.

...ERN KS/MO...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS REGION.

...TN TO NORTHERN GA...
GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN INTO
NORTHERN AL AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM
INTO NORTHERN GA...THE SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SEWD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHERN GA.  12Z
4 KM NAM AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA...WITH STORMS THEN WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
CURRENT RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG EXTENDED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO ERN MT THROUGH
WRN/SRN SD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM
CANADA ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL NY...
GIVEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL NY HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

..PETERS.. 07/01/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015/

...TN VALLEY INTO AL/GA...
A REMNANT MCS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KY/TN.  THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS
IS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS...POSING A THREAT OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS TN INTO PARTS OF AL/GA.

...MO/KS/AR...
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THIS AREA LAST
NIGHT...RAPID HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF MO INTO EASTERN KS.
 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER EASTERN NEB WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES LIKELY.
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CONSIDERABLE
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EFFECTS OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS.  STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS DURING THE
EVENING...TRACKING INTO AR.

...MT INTO NEB...
VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS AND
CLUSTERS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF AREAL COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED
TO SLGT RISK LATER TODAY.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY BENEATH A COOL UPPER TROUGH...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND BY EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL.

...AZ...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT HAVE TENDED TO STABILIZE THE
REGION SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY FORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ AND PROPAGATES WESTWARD.
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME RISK OF ROTATING
STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ...WHERE MARGINAL HAIL PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN ADDED.




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