Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES AND MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  A
LESS CERTAIN AND/OR MORE MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK COVERS A BROAD
AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

...CENTRAL KS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WITH THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OK/TX.  LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING IN
THIS AREA...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION.  BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG.  A DRYLINE
BULGE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...HELPING TO
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES IN THE
REGION...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO.

...WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
A GENERALLY UNCAPPED DRYLINE IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.  VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE MAINTAINED VERY LONG AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON INITIATION LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO.  THOSE STORMS THAT FORM AND AFFECT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL
POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  PERSISTENT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ARE LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
ORGANIZED RISK.

..HART/KERR.. 05/25/2016

$$



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