864
FXUS64 KAMA 011735
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For this morning, have maintained low pops across much of the
forecast area based on latest radar imagery. Expect this
precipitation to either dissipate or move out of the region by
late morning.

For later this afternoon and tonight, another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is
expected to move across the OK and TX Panhandles. With plenty of
moisture remaining along with sufficient daytime heating and
corresponding atmospheric instability and reasonable shear values,
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop
later this afternoon along and east of the leeside surface trof
axis over the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area.
These storms should then move eastward and east southeastward
across the area late this afternoon and tonight. A few storms may
become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall
from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash flooding.

The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values
and areal coverage for Sunday and Sunday evening as heights and
mid level temperatures begin to rise across the southern high
plains. That said, expect any showers and thunderstorms that
manage to form along a developing surface dryline feature to be
more isolated in nature compared to recent days as large scale
lift will be much weaker and mid level temperatures will be
increasing, suggesting a capping inversion may play a role in
limiting storm coverage. A few storms that do develop will have
the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards. Precipitation chances end areawide late
Sunday night.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For Monday through Thursday, generally dry weather is anticipated
as heights and low level thickness values rise further. It appears
the warmest day of the extended forecast periods will likely be
on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region, including Palo
Duro Canyon State Park where highs may approach Heat Advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms
may return to the region Thursday night and Friday as some semblance
of northwest flow aloft may develop. Medium range models are in
basic agreement and were accepted.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Active weather is expected in the panhandles late in the afternoon
and in the evening as a band of rain showers and thunderstorms
forms. This band will travel W to E or NW to SE across the
panhandles during this time. All terminals have a chance to be
impacted by the rain showers and thunderstorms with better odds in
the for KGUY and lesser odds for KAMA and KDHT. A few of the
thunderstorms can become severe with damaging winds and large hail
being the main threat. Conditions are expected to remain mainly
VFR with dips into MVFR or IFR only under the thunderstorms. Once
the thunderstorms pass to the east the overnight hours should see
fair weather conditions. Further rain showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the panhandles for Sunday mainly in the
eastern half.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  92  63  97 /  30  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  62  93  64  93 /  60  20  20  10
Boise City OK              59  93  57  92 /  40  20  10  10
Borger TX                  64  97  65 100 /  40  20  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  98  60  98 /  30  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  61  93  61  97 /  30  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               62  89  65  96 /  30  40  20   0
Dalhart TX                 59  95  55  94 /  30  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  60  94  59  93 /  60  20  10   0
Hereford TX                61  95  59  98 /  30  20  10   0
Lipscomb TX                64  90  66  95 /  60  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   63  91  65  96 /  50  20  20   0
Shamrock TX                64  89  66  97 /  40  30  30  10
Wellington TX              65  89  67  98 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...98