182
FXUS61 KCLE 120528
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
128 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds northward across the region today
but moves quickly eastward tonight. Low pressure approaches the
region from the Southern Plains late Monday as a cold front
sags southward stalling over the southern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Right rear quadrant of a 850 MB and 700 MB are rotating around
the base of an upper level low that is moving slowly eastwards
cross western NY. This has been enough to generate a line of
heavier showers and isolated thunder that is moving southward
across the eastern half of northern OH. These showers should
slowly decrease in coverage over the next couple hours. In the
wake of this piece of energy it looks as if the lake will
contribute some additional moisture and low level lift with
steeper low level lapse rates. Water surface temperatures to 850
mb are running 10+ degrees so expect the lake enhanced showers
to persist into at least late morning across NE OH into NW PA.

Beyond the morning hours we should see high pressure ridge into
the area from the south with dry conditions expected everywhere
through midnight. After midnight a cold front will be sagging
toward the north shore of Lake Erie with increased chances of
showers along and ahead of it. Most of these showers initially
remain over the lake but will attempt to move onshore across
extreme NE OH into NW PA by sunrise Monday.

Lows through sunrise should only dip into the middle and upper
40`s, maybe slightly warmer near the lakeshore. Cloud cover will
be slow to erode across NE OH into NW PA today, which will
impact high temperatures. Expect to see a range of highs from
around 60 across NW PA to the mid 70`s across NW OH. A bit
warmer tonight with an increasing southerly wind and clouds
increasing over the lake into NW PA. Lows should range from the
mid 40`s to mid 50`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough extends from Canada into the northern Great
Lakes along with another upper-level trough lifting northeast
out of the central Great Plains. At the surface, a modest low
pressure system (~1004mb) will accompany the trough out of the
Great Plains with a separate cold front moving southeast across
the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will be isolated/scattered
Monday afternoon through the first half of the night before
becoming more likely during the day Tuesday as the low pressure
approaches from the west-southwest and cold front from the
northwest. Scattered rain showers are possible Tuesday night as
the low departs. Temperatures will be warm on Monday with highs
in the upper 70s before cooling down on Tuesday as that
aforementioned cold front moves through with highs down into the
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure builds in
Wednesday and Thursday, though there could be some lingering
isolated showers on Wednesday, mainly in the southern part of
the CWA but should be precipitation-free Wednesday night through
Friday morning. Upper-level trough and surface low move across
the region Friday evening through Saturday. There is a lot of
spread in model guidance still, so decided to hold with broad
chance PoPs during this period for now. Temperatures are
expected to rebound into the 70s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Isolated/scattered showers become more numerous across NE OH
into NW PA through sunrise. There could also be a couple
rumbles of thunder but these chances are decreasing. In any
event the showers and couple thunderstorms should be near and
east of a KLPR to KCAK line through sunrise. We then should see
some lake enhanced showers persist across extreme NE OH into NW
PA through the morning hours. Ceilings will lower across NE OH
into NW PA through mid morning then gradually decrease through
mid afternoon, lingering longest across inland NW PA.
Elsewhere, away from the showers, expect to see VFR conditions
continue.

We will need to monitor a cold front that sags southward to the
north shore of Lake Erie tonight. Showers and lower ceilings may
impact NW PA after 06Z MON.

West to northwest winds gradually decrease through the morning
with the highest speeds near the lakeshore. Speeds of 6-15 knots
are anticipated with gusts around 25 knots near the lake. WInds
shift to the south through the afternoon but should be under 6
knots. The southerly winds increase after 03Z MON with 6-12
knots expected.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds of 15 to 20 knots turn northwest this evening through
tonight, with winds gradually weakening through the morning
hours. Small craft advisory is out through this evening and
tonight. High pressure ridge moves east across the region on
Sunday, with winds becoming southwest Sunday night through
Monday night as low pressure approaches from the southwest and a
separate cold front approaches from the northwest. Weak
northeast winds develop behind the cold front Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Saunders