Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 230426
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Look for a quiet next 24 hours as ridging aloft continues to
dominate the weather across eastern KS. Warm and humid conditions
will remain in place since the surface front will remain nearly
stationary across NE and CO as the deep upper trough continues to
dig across the West. Only minor change in weather appears to be weak
CAA as the low level thermal ridge and upper level ridge shifts
northeast on Saturday. This should keep highs a degree or two cooler
than today. Even so look for much above avg temps in the upper 80s
to lower 90s on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Main focus for the forecast remains the high amplitude trough that
is out west moving closer to the area with a frontal boundary.
Models seem to be converging on a common timing for through front
entering the area Monday morning, but slowly progressing through
the area and eventually exiting east central KS Tuesday morning.
There seems to be decent forcing for precip within the
southwesterly flow aloft for likely POPs Monday across north
central KS spreading east through the afternoon and evening. Main
concern with the storms is likely to be locally heavy rainfall as
deep layer flow should generally be parallel to the frontal
boundary. Shear and CAPE parameters appear to be pretty marginal
for severe storms at this time. So widespread severe storms does
not look very probable at this time. Precip is expected to come to
an end from north to south during the day Tuesday as surface
ridging and dry air move south, and have removed POPs from the
forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mild temps with highs in the
mid and upper 80s and lows in the 60s should prevail ahead of the
front.

The forecast for mid and late week is a little more uncertain as
the synoptic pattern appears to be changing from the ridge over
the eastern U.S. to more of a ridge over the west and troughing
over the east. For instance the GFS shows some energy moving
through the central plains late Thursday and Friday morning while
the Canadian and ECMWF develop shortwave ridging aloft with
surface ridging over the central plains. In general think dry
weather will persist through the end of the forecast period with
cooler temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Expect VFR conditons at the terminals through the next 24 hours.
The 30-35 KT low-level jet at around 1500 feet will continue
through the early morning hours of Saturday. Therefore, expect
moderate low level wind shear to continue through 13Z at the
terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan



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