Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 291751

1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface winds will be light through Thursday morning, gradually
veering from southeast to northwest. As a shortwave trough skims
southward over the region overnight into Thursday morning, the
low-level jet will increase over the TAF sites, resulting in the
potential for some LLWS concerns overnight as southwesterly winds at
around 1000ft may reach upwards of 35-40kts.




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