Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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039
FXUS63 KTOP 252336
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING REVEALS TEMPERATURES
NEAR H850 AROUND 17C, RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS. FOR THIS REASON EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS REVEAL ML-CIN
APPROACHING 0 J/KG BY 00Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LINEAR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
WITH ML CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 35
KNOTS, EXPECT Organized CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
EXPECTED IS A CLUSTER OF MULTICELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH
A BOWING SEGMENT CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
DURING THE PERIOD IS THE PROGRESSION OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
SHORT-TERM CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FASTER PROGRESSION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE THE 12Z NAM LINGERS SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A PRESSURE GRADIENT ~6 MB ACROSS
THE CWA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25+ MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Frost still remains possible Thursday morning, especially over north
central Kansas where forecast lows are in the lower 30s. Upper 30s
appear more likely over far east central areas.

Broad northwest flow will continue to usher in several systems
across the region. Overall trends have not changed too much from
previous forecast. Frontal boundary lifts northward into the area
Thursday evening with an incoming, embedded wave overnight. Both the
GFS and ECMWF along with ensemble guidance is still pretty similar
in the main upper low dipping into NM before lifting northeast
through Kansas for this weekend. Orientation and track of these
systems places the CWA in the northeast, cooler periphery of the
low. This translates to mostly rain showers, moderate at times with
cooler temps with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Locally
heavy rain may occur, dependent on precedent precipitation.
Current storm total rainfall through the weekend ranges between 1
and 2 and a half inches. Westerly sfc low turns southerly towards
the beginning of next week, allowing temps to recover back into
the 60s and low 70s Monday and Tuesday. The next upper trough
moves through in the Tuesday time frame, although models are
varied on the availability of moisture and qpf amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Have backed off of precip mention given recent observations and model
trends. Still have light precip chances for much of the next
several hours but convective concerns are lower. MVFR to near IFR
ceilings will build in behind the front, with enough indications
of improvement for a return to VFR late in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...65



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