Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271143
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
643 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Water vapor imagery showing upper low over south central Kansas
making slow progress east-northeast. East to northeast surface winds
continue with surface low over northeast Oklahoma. Bands of light
precipitation persist in areas of mid level frontogenesis and
deformation. Models are very similar mid/upper level low exiting far
eastern Kansas early this morning with quick drying following. Have
kept precip chances fairly close to previous forecast with chances
ending by late morning from west to east. Low cloud looks to be
slower to exit but some sunshine anticipated for all areas by late
afternoon. This should allow for highs to reach the mid 50s to
around 60. Nighttime period remains dry with high cloud increasing
late in the night. Models do attempt to keep some lower cloud
possibilities, but light winds and damp ground still give some
concern for fog development. Confidence in visibilities dropping to
this level is too low for any mention yet.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Much of Tuesday will be dry across the CWA with a dry easterly flow
through the day. Later on Tuesday the upper low meandering eastward
over the Rockies will begin to advect moisture northward into
central and western Kansas with energy ejecting northward into the
Central Plains. The upper low is forecast to move eastward across
Oklahoma and southern Kansas through Thursday with energy ejecting
northward through the period. Upper level diffluent flow along with
a southerly low level jet and convergence in the 850 mb level will
lead to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms from
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers will come to an end Thursday
night as the deformation zone associated with the upper low moves
off to the east Thursday evening. Precipitation amounts from Tuesday
night through Thursday could average between 1.5 and 2 inches of
rainfall with a few locations locally higher. Will need to watch
areas south of I-70 for possible elevated streamflow due to the
potential for training of storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Temperatures look to mainly be in the 50s for much of the period
with lows mainly in the 40s.

Thursday night through Friday looking dry until the approach of the
next upper trough for the Weekend which will bring on and off
chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Radar trends showing area of precipitation dissipating steadily,
with HRRR in agreement. Will maintain another hour of moderate
rain at TOP and FOE, but the main challenge will be ceiling trends
over the next several hours. Have some concern IFR levels will
last into the midday. Will add MVFR BR late in the forecast with
light winds and some clearing expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65


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