Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 272253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
553 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

This afternoon through tomorrow, the upper low currently located
over the Great Lakes region will drift south bringing a backdoor
front through northeast Kansas overnight.  No precipitation is
expected, although this will bring in another shot of cooler air
into the area Wednesday.  Temperatures at 925mb will be roughly 10
degrees cooler tomorrow than today, where highs have reached near 80
degrees in some areas.  Tomorrow, winds shift from the north
northeast aiding in the cooler conditions and highs in the low 70s.
With the front moving through overnight, winds stay up just above
the surface which may mix down helping to keep temperatures warmer
than previous evenings.  Lows range from the lower 50s north to mid
50s in central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The remainder of the week into the weekend will be marked by dry and
cooler than normal conditions.  With a strong closed-low expected to
remain fairly stationary, spinning over the Ohio River Valley, a mid-
level ridge will be in place across the central U.S. through
Saturday.  With surface high pressure anchored across the central
U.S., have a dry forecast in place through Sunday with temperatures
remaining fairly consistent.  As a result, expect highs to remain
steady in the low/mid 70s with overnight low temperatures staying in
the mid/upper 70s.  Models show a mid-level trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest over the weekend and shifting across the Rockies
and into the Northern Plains early next week.  This advancing trough
will help to break down the stationary pattern, with surface high
pressure shifting east of the area and the mid-level ridge weakening
as it slides over the CWA.  With winds shifting to the southeast,
expect a moderating trend with temperatures late weekend into early
next week with highs reaching into the upper 70s/near 80 degrees
with overnight low temperatures warming into the 50s. Models show
the potential for a weak embedded wave to develop within this
weakening ridge, which may produce some isolated precipitation
Sunday night. Otherwise, there will be a slight chance for scattered
showers and storms Monday into Tuesday as the advancing trough helps
to push a cold front through the area. However, model soundings show
a limited amount of available moisture, so confidence remains low on
the coverage of any precipitation that will develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Dry air and no significant forcing should allow VFR conditions to
prevail. There remains a small probability for some ground fog
around sunrise, but models show some mixing as the boundary moves
through so chances appear to small to mention in the forecast.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters



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