Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 202024
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Currently, WV and Vis sat imagery shows a mid-latitude cyclone
moving into the Great Lakes region with associated cold front
trailing to the southwest through the Ozarks into OK and the
Southern Plains region.  Northwest to zonal flow resides over the
Central Plains with another Pacific trough over the Pac Northwest
into the Northern Rockies region.

Rest of today will remain dry and cooler with weak low level CAA
still working through the region.  Temps will top out in the upper
60s.  Lows tonight will cool into the mid 40s.

For Friday, much of the day period should remain dry with only very
small chances for precip into the late afternoon hours, but some
higher chances over very southern counties of the CWA. Highs should
remain on the cooler side with cloud cover overspreading the area in
advance of the previously mentioned North Pac trough diving south
into the Southern Rockies before deepening as it pulls back into the
southern Central Plains. Almost all short-term guidance, and even
longer term guidance, has come into better agreement with a more
southerly track to the developing system.  Focus for ascent is also
to the south of the forecast area. Therefore, have slightly delayed
and shifted higher precip chances to the south.  Expecting the most
likely areas for precip remain largely along and south of I-70 as
the late afternoon progresses. Most forecast soundings also suggest
the atmosphere over the forecast area may be slow to saturate, so
feel that much of Friday afternoon should be free of too many
concerns weather wise.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Friday night the surface low will be over southeast Oklahoma with an
inverted trough extending north into southeast Kansas. The 850 mb
fronbtal boundary sets up across southern Kansas with the highest
qpf expected near and south of east central Kansas. Models continue
to trend slightly south with the axis of higher qpf and
corresponding frontogenetic forecasting. Main forcing with the upper
trough shifts off to the east after 09Z Saturday with precipitation
chances gradually decreasing through the day on Saturday. Have
decided to hold off on a flood watch with higher rainfall amounts
anticipated further south of the cwa. High pressure builds into the
central Plains for Saturday night and Sunday. Will see temperatures
cool into the upper 30s Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will average
near normal in the upper 60s. For the rest of the week a nearly
zonal flow sets up with energy ejecting out across the Plains in the
Tuesday to early Wednesday may bring a chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Near the end of next week a deepening western U.S.
upper trough ejecting out into the western high plains late
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR conditions prevail for the 18Z forecast period. High and mid
clouds will build latter half of the period in advance of the next
system passing mainly south of the area. Any precip chances hold
until after the period though.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake



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