Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 020449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

Upper shortwave trough axis over southern Nebraska and far northern
Kansas. Leading edge of the sfc front has generated scattered areas
of light showers and drizzle. These showers will gradually diminish
as the main area of lift shifts eastward while winds pickup behind
the boundary between 10 and 15 mph sustained from the north through
early evening. Cloud cover increases around the backside of the sfc
low this evening, insulating low temps to the lower 40s.

Early Tuesday morning, remnants of a weakening shortwave trough
lifts northeast over Kansas eventually phasing with the previous
wave in the afternoon. There is just enough lift and mid level
moisture across eastern Kansas to mention slight to low end chance
for scattered showers through the day. Mixing increases to 800 mb as
cloud cover dissipates out west by the afternoon. Highs were bumped
up a few degrees for north central Kansas into the middle 60s with
lower 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

Another lobe of energy rotates around the back side of the upper
low into the area on Tuesday, with another shot coming south
around the Canadian low into the Plains on Wednesday. With
moisture lacking and better energy out west initially, then to
our east on Wednesday, end result will be to keep highs down in
the 60s to near 70 on Tuesday and overnight lows in the 40s.
Western counties may reach toward middle 70s on Wednesday as warm
air advection aloft starts to return late in the day.

Thursday into Saturday brings the upper ridge overhead, followed
by southwesterly flow by late day on Saturday. Sensible weather
result is a warmup from middle 70s toward 80s by the weekend.
Moisture return out of the south may finally make some northern
progress into our western areas by late day Saturday, although
chances for rain will depend on how far eastward the low out over
the Great Basin can progress, as it has the large scale eastern
trof and another Hudson low to contend with. Will keep a slight
chance to chance for thunderstorms on Sunday, with details of the
pattern still evolving.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

For the 06z TAFs, expect MVFR cigs to prevail through much of the overnight
hours for KTOP/KFOE. However, some periods of low-end VFR cigs
will be possible into Monday morning before fully improving to
VFR cigs for the remainder of the TAF period. There still is some
model uncertainty with when exactly these ceilings will improve
from MVFR to VFR conditions. Some isolated to scattered showers
will be possible late morning through early afternoon near
KTOP/KFOE as a weak wave passes over the region, so have the
mention of VCSH. Otherwise, winds will remain out of the north and
northwest through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke



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