Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 191714

1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Water vapor at 08z showing a well defined shortwave moving eastward
along the KS/OK border. Forcing in association with this wave will
remain south of the wave before it exits the area by late afternoon.
Although there may be some increase in mid and high clouds...will
maintain a dry forecast through the day. The mid and high clouds are
not expected to be thick enough to offset the increasing warm air will keep highs from the upper 60s far eastern cwa to
the lower 70s elsewhere. Another shortwave trough now moving across
the upper Midwest/Northern plains will sweep southeast across the
area tonight and push a weak front into the northwest sections of
the cwa. The continued warm air advection ahead of the advancing
trough will be better focused east and south of the cwa as the low
level flow veers with the passage of the trough. Once again the lack
of stronger forcing and drying mid levels warrants a continued dry
fcst with any showers that form expected to remain south  of the
cwa. Slightly cooler lows tonight will occur behind the boundary in
the north central with readings in the upper 40s. The milder lows in
the lower 50s will occur south and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Monday through Wednesday, an upper level ridge will move east across
the plains. An upper level trough across the western conus will
move towards the high plains by Wednesday Afternoon.

Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s. High
and mid level clouds will increase as the upper level trough moves
into the high plains late Wednesday afternoon. The leading edge of
showers and thunderstorms may move into north central KS late
Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday Night, the upper level trough over
the high plains will dig southeast across the central and southern
plains. A cold front will slowly push east across the CWA. Deeper
moisture will return ahead of the front and large scale ascent ahead
of the upper trough, combined with surface convergence ahead of
the cold front will provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday. There should be
enough instability and deeper moisture for isolated thunderstorms
through the period. These storms should remain well below severe
limits across the CWA. There may be some brief heavy rainfall
across the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Highs on
Thursday will be cooler due to the cloud cover with mid 60s
expected west of the front and upper 60s east of the surface

The showers and thunderstorms will diminish Thursday night into
early Friday morning as the upper level trough digs southeast into
northeast TX and the surface cold front pushes east of the CWA.

Friday through Saturday, the upper level trough across northeast TX will
evolve into a closed upper low and move southeast into the
northern Gulf of Mexico. A broad upper level ridge will build east
into the central and southern plains. Expect dry weather with
mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KMHK/KFOE as south winds between 10 and 14
kts may occasionally gust up to 20 kts in the afternoon. Winds
become light this evening as a weak front veers winds to the
northwest below 5 kts. Cannot rule out shallow haze or BR at KTOP
at 12Z but does appear patchy enough to not warrant adding a
prevailing group at this time.




LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.