Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A closed upper low was located across central MN with one upper
trough axis extending south-southwest across eastern NE and across
west central KS early this morning. The ascent ahead of the upper
trough axis was causing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
to develop along and northwest of a surface cold front moving
southeast across north central KS. Ahead of the front dense patchy
ground fog has developed across east central KS. As the front
shifts southeast across east central Kansas through the early
morning hours, northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 MPH and
disperse the patchy dense fog after 4 AM.

Once the first trough axis shifts southeast of the CWA we should see
a break in the showers. The upper low across central MN will dig
southward into MO late tonight. Another upper trough axis will pivot
southeast around the upper low across eastern KS this afternoon. If
we see some insolation develop in the early afternoon hours, the
atmosphere may destabilize enough for weak thunderstorm to develop
along with showers. Most models only show between 50-100 J/KG MUCAPE
developing between 18Z-00Z. The showers and any isolated
thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.

Low-level CAA will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s. If we keep
cloud cover the entire day, then highs may be a few degrees cooler.

Tonight skies will gradually clear from west to east across the CWA.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Exit of upper system leaves a very small window for what would most
likely be sprinkles in far eastern locations early Wednesday as
upper low exits, but downglide and drying column should bring mostly
sunny skies area-wide by late afternoon. If cloud can hold on
longer, will need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night with
surface/upper ridging building in. Upper low in Bering Sea this
morning comes southeast into the Northern Plains Thursday night with
a weak surface cyclone developing over the Southern Plains and a
weak mid/upper wave passing through. Decent isentropic/q-g forcing
leads to a decent chance for elevated thunderstorms Thursday night
into early Friday. The next stronger shortwave rotates around the
low Friday night into Saturday for another round of elevated
thunderstorm potential. Limiting kinematic forcing and lack of deep
moisture keep severe weather concerns rather low for both of these
periods. Models are in fairly good agreement with the associated
modified cold front passing through by midday, keeping the warm
sector to the southeast. Models differences increase into early
next week, but do coincide with northwest flow in place and next
potential shortwave around Monday. Temperatures should moderate
somewhat into the end of the week, with some cooling north behind
Saturday`s front, then in the 70s for Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

For the 18z TAFs, scattered showers over southern NE early this
afternoon will shift southeastward over the TAF sites mid
afternoon into early this evening. Cannot rule out the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm amongst this widely scattered
precipitation, however confidence is too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time. By Wednesday morning, a brief period of borderline
VFR/MVFR cigs will be possible at KTOP/KFOE.




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