Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 161705
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Overnight thunderstorms were exiting our southeast counties at
around 245 am this morning with isolated storms elsewhere across
the area. The convection was south of the cold front which was
slowly sinking southeast across eastern Kansas. The front is
forecast to stall this morning across southeast Kansas as a weak
surface high moves east across Nebraska and Iowa.

The airmass near the boundary will be unstable with plenty of
surface based CAPE today. Strong to severe storms are forecast to
develop just to the south of our southeast counties this afternoon
and the new 06z SPC slight risk actually includes two of TOP`s
counties in the southeast. Had to increase POPs across the whole
forecast area today and especially south. Most synoptic and
convective allowing high-res models generate precipitation across
the area today into tonight. With the surface front close to our
southeast, I increased high temperatures there.

Expect the the precipitation to end tonight and we will probably
get a day of dry weather on Monday with weak surface high pressure
in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

In the long-term, the weather pattern remains active with several
chances of showers and thunderstorms. By late Tuesday, the upper
flow increases from the west southwest across the western CONUS as
shortwave energy emerges into the central plains by Wednesday
morning. The surface front just to our south is forecast to lift
north as a warm front on Tuesday and Tuesday night reaching
southern Nebraska by 12z Wednesday per the 00Z NAM/GFS. Warmer
temps and humidity and thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

A surface wave develops along the boundary Wednesday which results
in a relatively strong cold front to move through Wednesday night.
Another round of showers and storms is expected with at least
some severe potential given the strength of the upper wave and the
amount of available CAPE.

Cooler weather late this week. Another storm moves through the
central and southern plains with northeast Kansas on the cool side
of the system with rain and cool temperatures.

The prolonged period of wet weather may result in flooding issues
as the week progresses depending on the details. HPC seven day QPF
issued Saturday afternoon had 2-4 inches of rain this week over
northeast Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to move across the area
this afternoon and evening.  Have included VCTS at all sites between
21-23Z ending late tonight near 07-08Z.  Winds stay out of the
northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller



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