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000
FXUS64 KCRP 071716
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1116 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AT ABOUT 01Z AT ALONG THE
COASTAL TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS RETURN AROUND 06/08Z WITH DECREASING
WINDS. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR KALI AND KCRP BY 10Z WHILE KLRD
AND KVCT REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNLIKE
THIS MORNING FOG WILL BE LIMITED TOMORROW AS 925MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20 KNOTS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AT KCRP
AND KALI WILL OCCUR ABOUT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
 BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ONCE FOG LIFT THIS MORNING (ABT 15Z)...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ENSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING. SE/SSE WINDS ALSO
INCREASE TOO...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. GUSTY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LOSE ITS GUSTS ABT 08/01Z. MVFR CIGS
RETURN AROUND 08/06Z (GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS)...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING MORE. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT
CHARTS...WILL EVEN FORECAST IFR CIGS BEFORE END OF TERMINAL
FORECAST AT KCRP AND KALI (HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE). FOG MORE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS 925MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE ABT 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS WHEN THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL
BE...HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE THERE IS IN HAVING RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND WILL GO WITH 40 POPS OVER
MOST NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE
SATURDAY...LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY COMES
BACK FROM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVE NORTHEAST. SOME MORNING FOG
(SHOULD MAINLY BE PATCHY) THIS MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING LESS TONIGHT
AS WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE ALONG WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR CONVECTION. WILL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN 40 AT THIS TIME AS THIS MATCHES SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND UNCERTAINTIES OF UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY (DUE TO LIMITED
SUNSHINE) STILL THERE. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL GO ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST 2 METER TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER
TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE/WIND INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES TRICKY ON SATURDAY...AND OVERALL WILL GO ABOUT THE SAME
OR WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND ABOUT THE SAME OR COOLER NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERALLY NO ISSUES WITH THE
MARINE FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SCEC (AND THUS SCA) FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ABOUT SCEC FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. SINCE BEST MOISTURE COMES BACK FROM ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE (AND DEW POINTS OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 40S)...WILL HOLD
OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SEA FOG IN THE FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE INITIALLY
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER NORTHERN MEX
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COASTLINE AROUND 06Z SUN. THEY ARE
ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA BUT DISAGREE
ON AMOUNTS OR JUST HOW SATURATED THE AIRMASS BECOMES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER AT ENDING PRECIP ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON KEEPING PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS
IN THE FCST. BASED ON THESE MODELS...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. THERE IS
MINIMAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL BEND. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TAIL
END OF RRQ OF JET...DIFFLUENCE...HIGH OMEGA...AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH APPROACHING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE. AM NOT EXPECTING
SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ELEVATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE HVY
RAINFALL AS WELL GIVEN PWATS OF UP TO 1.7 INCHES PER THE GFS FCST
SOUNDING AND A SLOW MOVG FRONT. KEPT THE 60 POPS ACROSS THE E FROM
00-06Z SUN THEN SPREAD THE 60 POPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06-12Z SUN.
BASED ON STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FCST TO BE ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL
BEND...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS EVEN HIGHER...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT MAY SPEED UP OR STALL ON DAY 3.
BROAD BRUSHED 50 POP FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT IS S OF THE AREA...BUT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DVLPS AHD OF THE 850MB FRONT LEADING TO SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF
TSRA AS WELL DUE TO UPPER JET REMAINING OVERHEAD. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT BUT OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES S TX. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY WILL
REMAIN VERY COOL WITH NOT MUCH WARMING DURING THE DAY WITH OVC
SKIES. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AHD OF THE NEXT
FRONT ON WED. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH
THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  61  75  49  54  /  10  10  40  60  50
VICTORIA          70  56  71  46  54  /  10  10  40  60  50
LAREDO            79  62  80  52  57  /  10  10  20  50  50
ALICE             77  58  78  49  54  /  10  10  40  60  50
ROCKPORT          71  61  72  50  55  /  10  10  40  60  50
COTULLA           77  59  72  47  57  /  10  10  40  50  50
KINGSVILLE        76  60  77  50  54  /  10  10  30  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       72  62  73  52  55  /  10  10  40  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM
XX/99...LONG TERM