Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 281101
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





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