Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 232347 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Vfr conditions are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds will
lay down at ALI/VCT/CRP within an hour or two but will remain a
little gusty at times at LRD through the evening. Confidence is
too low to mention any mvfr cigs/vsbys at ALI/VCT and will omit
from the forecast. Southeast winds will increase on Sunday
afternoon with a few gusts around 20 knots at times.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Deterministic NWP models continue to predict a gradual weakness
in the upper heights over the CWA/MSA during the period. NAM
deterministic maintains PWAT values greater than normal. Will
retain the same forecast of diurnal/noctural isolated convection
during the period (diurnal activity along the afternoon sea breeze
and noctural activity over the MSA owing in part to nil CIN
values.) Predominate maximum heat index values 105-109F over the
CWA during the afternoon Sunday (with 110F values possible again
near the coast during the brief window of time immediately after
the sea breeze moves onshore.)

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

An easterly wave will move across the Northern Gulf of Mexico early
next week, with the trough axis setting up across the western Gulf
coast during the early/mid week.  Deeper moisture will increase
across the eastern zones and coastal waters with PWAT values rising
above 2 inches (greater than the 75th percentile) Monday night
through Wednesday.  This will allow for at least a scattering of
showers and storms, with the best coverage on Tuesday.  Wave moves
west of the region after Wednesday. Moisture decreases across the
region late in the week as well. Kept only lower chance PoPs for the
end of the week, mainly with sea-breeze circulation.  Normal summer-
time temperatures will be prevalent through the coming week , though
with higher cloud cover/moisture and possible rain during the
early/mid week highs will be a couple degrees cooler on those days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  94  78  96  78  /  10  20  10  20  20
Victoria          77  97  76  95  77  /  10  20  10  30  20
Laredo            78 104  78 102  79  /   0  10  10  10  10
Alice             76  99  76  99  78  /  10  20  10  20  20
Rockport          81  91  80  92  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           77 104  77 102  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        77  97  77  98  78  /  10  20  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       80  89  80  92  81  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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