Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 072211
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
411 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Arctic cold front currently noted through the Texas panhandle and
just moving into North Texas. This front will surge through the
state tonight, and is expected to move through South Texas later
tonight. As high pressure builds in behind the front very strong
winds will develop with a tightening pressure gradient. Strongest
winds over South Texas will be right along the coast where wind
gusting to 40 mph will be possible. Stronger winds will occur in
marine areas...see Marine section below for details. Winds will
gradually subside late in the day on Thursday. Wind Advisory will
be in effect from 6AM through 6PM for coastal counties with breezy
conditions continuing overnight.

Overruning flow will also develop this evening and continue on
Thursday keeping a chance for light rain in the forecast. The best
lift for this will be in the coastal bend and coastal plains.
Temperatures tonight the easiest of the short term period with min
temps expected in mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. High
temperatures are difficult as warmest temperatures may occur at
midnight, depending on the timing of the front. Will expect a
nearly steady temperature for most of the area during the day on
Thursday with overruning flow and a thick cloud deck holding
strong. Min temps Thursday night become a challenge then as to how
cold they can get with the cloud cover expected to persist. Did
raise temps a degree or so as models continue to indicate clouds
holding longer, but still think most locations will drop into the
30s for the night. Expect cloud cover to preclude any wide spread
freezing conditions. A few cold prone areas may drop to around
freezing briefly.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...

Surface ridge axis over the region early Friday will move to the
east during the day. Weak isentropic lift in the 290-295K layer will
maintain cloud cover over the region on Friday. Temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 40s Friday with readings around 50 near
the coast. A coastal trough will approach the coast Saturday
morning. Weak convergence and increasing moisture will provide a
slight chance of precipitation Friday night into Saturday mainly
over the coastal plains. Isentropic lift will increase over the
coastal plains Saturday night into Sunday as south-southwest flow in
the 295-300K layer increases to 30 knots. Best chances for showers
will be over the Victoria Crossroads area. A short wave trough moves
across the southern plains Sunday with a weak cold front moving into
South Texas Monday morning. Rain chances will shift east into the
waters with drier air moving in from the west. ECMWF shows a strong
upper low digging southeast through central Canada Monday toward the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday. This pattern will be favorable for
another advance of arctic air through the plains Tuesday and reach
the area by Wednesday. Air mass should be more modified than the
cold front reaching the area tonight but went below Superblend
guidance for highs Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Arctic front will move through the area early Thursday morning
with northerly gales expected to develop in its wake. Expect winds
to begin increasing between 3 and 6 AM with gales developing by 6
AM. Seas increase quickly to very rough conditions in bays and
open waters. Gale force wind gusts in bays should subside by
Thursday evening when a small craft advisory will be necessary.
The gales will persist through midnight for open waters with rough
seas continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  54  39  50  45  /  40  30  20  10  20
Victoria          49  52  35  48  40  /  50  30  10  10  10
Laredo            50  51  37  47  40  /  10  40  10  10  10
Alice             52  52  37  49  41  /  20  30  10  10  20
Rockport          55  55  41  49  46  /  40  30  20  10  20
Cotulla           46  49  36  46  39  /  10  30  10  10  10
Kingsville        53  54  39  49  44  /  30  40  20  10  20
Navy Corpus       55  56  42  52  49  /  40  40  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces...Refugio...San
     Patricio.

GM...Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin
     Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM



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