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000
FXUS64 KCRP 162010
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MODERATE RETURN
FLOW PATTERN WL AID IN A SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH BY TMW MORNING WL BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
WATERS AND COASTAL BEND. ISOLATED LIGHT PCPN WL REMAIN IN THE FCST
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
UNSTABLE LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME. WHILE
MOST OF THE FORCING WL BE IN THE LOW LVLS...THERE WL BE FORCING
FROM A STRENGTHENING SRN STREAM S/WV ON THURSDAY. THE BEST FORCING
FROM THIS S/WV WL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWA. THE FORCING BOTH
ALOFT AND IN THE LOW LVLS REALLY DIMINISHES BY THU NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE DEPTH ALONG WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LVL WIND COMPONENT
WL REMAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SO WL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS
AND WL EVEN PLACE THEM FURTHER WEST AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY. FOLLOWED BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS IN A
TEMPORARY LULL AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT MOVES AWAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS. TEMPORARY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES WEAK AND MUDDLED. MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD REACH THE RIO GRANDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AS OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

REST OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS BROAD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ACTS ON PRIMARILY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHUT OFF
ENTIRELY MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND OVER THE WEEKEND OUT WEST UNTIL UPPER RIDGING THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK PUSHES TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...THE OVERALL GRADIENT WL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST AREAS WL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. DECIDED
TO ADD A MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE FORCING
FROM THE ABOVE-MENTIONED S/WV ALONG WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
(AND WEAK TO NO CAP) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING WITHIN THIS RGN ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION WL
WANE BY THU NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/WV SPREADS
ACROSS THE RGN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  78  65  78  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          58  76  60  78  62  /  10  20  20  10  10
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  69  /  10  10  20  10  20
ALICE             59  80  64  80  66  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  75  66  76  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  80  63  83  64  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  79  66  79  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  76  67  76  69  /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88 & MB/80...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM