Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 240442 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1042 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Little in the
way of cloud cover is expected.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 954 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

No changes needed to the forecast on this Thanksgiving evening.
Another chilly night is expected across South Texas with lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the
immediate coast. Hourly grids were updated though to account for
latest trends/obs.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 535 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Generally
light winds and little in the way of cloud cover is expected.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)...

High amplitude upper pattern, characterized by a ridge over the
WRN CONUS/trough over the ERN CONUS, is predicted to become
quasi-zonal as upper disturbances from the West Coast flatten the
foregoing ridge. This pattern will contribute to a deepening
surface low over the SRN Plains and onshore flow over the CWA/MSA,
yet PWAT values predicted to remain well below normal. Dry
atmospheric conditions will preclude precipitation during the
period. Cold again tonight. Based on recent surface dew points
over the CWA, and if one assumes a dry vertical column and light
wind overnight (NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values around 0.5
inch overnight and weak surface ridge axis over the ERN CWA),
radiational cooling would suggest freezing temperatures early
Friday morning. However, GOES-16 1.37 micron imagery depict
approach of high clouds from the NW. The GFS predicts these clouds
to approach the CWA by 12z Friday (GFS 330K relative humidity.)
Anticipate that increasing moisture in the vertical column will
preclude freezing overnight temps. (Nil SREF probabilities of
freezing surface temps overnight over the CWA adds credence to
above freezing forecast.) Will forecast a few degrees lower than
the SuperBlend, resulting in readings from the upper 30s to the
the lower 40s over the CWA. However, readings could drop further
if upstream moisture does not enter the CWA overnight. Warmer
Friday and Friday night.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

High pressure at the surface and aloft continues through the weekend
and into Monday before the ridge axis is finally forced east. GFS
then aggressively brings a cold front through the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning associated with an upper disturbance
lifting across the southern Plains. ECM and Canadian models do not
bring a front through the area, with understandably much different
sensible weather for the middle of next week. For now will retain
low chance pops and wait for the system to be sampled more
completely to finalize strength or timing.

We will see a warming trend through the weekend, then temperatures
after that will be dependent on the above mentioned divergent
solutions. Kept very close to model blend temperatures in the
meantime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    41  76  55  83  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          38  74  51  81  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            43  77  51  83  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             39  78  51  84  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          48  71  60  80  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           40  78  48  81  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        39  77  52  85  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       50  72  62  81  63  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION


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