Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241143 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMOVED PATCHY FOG AS
DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW...AND CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
E-NE WIND TODAY WILL BRIEFLY VEER OUT OF THE E-SE THIS AFTN
5-10KTS FOR CRP- ALI- VCT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR LRD...A GENERAL E-SE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DIP ONCE MORE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT. GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF PROG A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH INITIALLY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS/TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. THE WRN TROUGH IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACRS THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH POSITIONS THE FRONT ACRS CNRL/NRN TX WEDNESDAY THEN ACRS
SRN/CNTRL TX THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS/ECMWF ONSHORE FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR INCREASE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR/PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA/MSA. AFTERWARD...
CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC WHICH DEPICT
RIDGING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA/MSA...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING...BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  87  61  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  58  88  58  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            89  66  91  63  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             88  61  90  60  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  64  84  67  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           89  62  90  59  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        87  60  89  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  85  68  80  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





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