Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 282046
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
346 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...

A weak cold front currently moving into EWX`s CWA is progged to
stall across South TX tonight and Monday and interact with abundant
moisture to produce numerous shra/tsra`s. Confidence is high that it
will rain some where in the CWA later tonight and Mon, however there
remains uncertainty with where the heaviest rainfall will be
located. In addition, there is a slight risk of severe storms across
the western CWA. Am expecting convection to begin entering the NW
CWA sometime between 02Z-06Z with the possibility of severe storms.
Then as the convection heads S and SE, the system will become more
of a heavy rain event. The highest pops shift east late tonight into
early Mon morning with convection becoming more elevated behind the
front. The front is progged to stall across S TX through Mon, draped
approx from south of LRD to ALI to around or just S of VCT. With low
level moisture convergence across the area, continued mod CAPE
values, and abundant moisture, rain chances are expected through out
the day. However, if the convection tonight becomes more organized
with a better push southward and toward the coast, the airmass may
become more stabilized by Mon afternoon and dimish rain chances,
especially northern and western areas. As a compromise, changed the
weather grid from heavy rain to mod rain for Mon afternoon along
with lower QPF. There may be localized flooding, but given the high
FFG values, and uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall will
ultimately end up, (some mesoscale models show heaviest rainfall
moving into the gulf and others show the precip moving SW into
Mex and BRO`s CWA) am not expecting widespread flooding at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...

Main issue is how to handle the rain chances through the period, as
this is not an easy forecast concerning that. What makes it even
more challenging is that things have been dry over portions of our
area and do not want to excite people with high QPF values
especially with the uncertainty after Monday, but the models are
going rather wet. Climatology speaking, often when we have an MCS
come through in the morning (like the potential on Monday) it takes
time for the atmosphere to reload here, especially since it appears
that there will be some weak ridging on Tuesday. However, it is not
certain an MCS will move across and there could still be enough
moisture/boundaries around Monday evening (especially near the
coast) where convection can linger. Thus, for Monday night, will go
chance POPs all but NW (slight chance where the atmosphere should be
more stable) and proximate to ridge. For Tuesday, will maintain
chance POPs with the airmass still rather moist but caveat is that
the weak upper ridging could have rain more isolated in spots. Looks
like another reasonable shot of rain on Wednesday with the approach
of an upper low and moisture/PWATs above 1.5 inches. By late Friday
the best portion of the upper trough is more north or northeast, and
this should begin to limit the rain chances for the upcoming
weekend. Not that the forecast will not have rain in, but will low-
end POPs for the weekend (20-30 percent). In short, there is a lot
of uncertainty in this forecast package with respect to timing of
rain, but feel more confident with rain Wednesday through Thursday
night, then gradually diminishing chances after that. Plenty of time
to adjust this forecast.

Concerning temperatures, pretty much went with a blend of consensus
raw forecast for highs Tuesday. For lows Monday night and Tuesday
night, went with blend of MOS and raw blend (but a bit on the cooler
side). Wednesday through Sunday pretty much kept the Superblend due
to uncertainty in forecast and in keeping with ISC collaboration
techniques.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  83  72  85  74  /  60  80  40  40  20
Victoria          74  80  70  86  72  /  70  80  30  40  20
Laredo            74  84  71  87  72  /  80  80  20  40  20
Alice             75  84  69  87  72  /  70  80  30  40  20
Rockport          77  82  74  84  75  /  60  80  40  40  20
Cotulla           73  84  69  87  72  /  80  60  20  30  20
Kingsville        77  85  70  86  73  /  60  80  40  40  20
Navy Corpus       78  81  74  84  76  /  60  80  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM


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