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000
FXUS64 KCRP 250924
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/NAM AND
GFS STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT/SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT THIS
SYSTEM WL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN
CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC THAT A
CORRESPONDING WEAK BOUNDARY WL MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE BNDRY OWING TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS (MOST RECENT PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/NAM PWAT VALUES.)

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ANTICIPATE ONLY SCEC
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
(NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC.) LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS OWING TO COOL SST VALUES (NASA SPORT SST
COMPOSITE) WHICH WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP.
UNDERCUT THE MEX HIGHS A DEG OR TWO BUT STILL EXPECT VERY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WITH LIMITED MSTR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS
VERY LOW.  AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN SO ONLY A MODEST COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED.  NEXT WEEKEND MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VARYING DEGREES OF MSTR OVERRUNNING OUR COOL
AIRMASS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  44  67  45  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  40  67  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  44  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             71  42  69  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  47  62  48  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           71  41  71  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        71  43  69  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  48  64  48  69  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM