Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 300842
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
342 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WESTWARD DRG THE
PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA/MSA
FRIDAY THUS NOT AS HOT FRIDAY AFTN OVER THE CWA. GOES SOUNDER DPI
TPW DEPICT A REGION OF GREATER MSTR APPROACHING THE NERN CWA/NRN
MSA FROM THE EAST. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICT 2 INCH PWAT
VALUES TO ENTER THE NERN CWA THIS AFTN...AND OVER THE ERN CWA
FRIDAY AFTN. OWING TO THIS MSTR INCREASE...ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA/MSA TODAY AND ISOLD/SCT
ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA FRIDAY. DECIDED TO RESTRICT THUNDER TO
THE AFTN HOURS BASED ON ANTICIPATION OF TREND IN CIN VALUES.
ANTICIPATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105F TODAY/FRIDAY OWING IN PART
TO EXPECTATION OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE RAIN POTENTIAL
CONTS FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE SE
BASE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGD TO BE CTRD ACROSS SRN
NEW MEX. THE MODELS ALSO PROG PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS. MODELS
ALSO FCST WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OR
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE WARM/CAPPING TEMPS AT 850-700MB
AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW STILL EXERTING ITS EFFECTS.
MODELS PROG A LACK OF CAPE OVER THE LAND AREAS AND KEEP THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF. DUE TO THE FCSTD
PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORN...AM EXPECTING TO SEE AT
LEAST SOME PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FRI NIGHT/SAT. AM
EXPECTING QPF VALUES TO REMAIN LOW. AM EXPECTING -TSRA`S DUE TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING ABV THE CAP...PER FCST SOUNDINGS. DRIER LOW
LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...BUT THE
LACK OF OVERALL INSTABILITY/UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS
THAT DO DVLP WELL BELOW SVR LIMITS. THE RAIN CHCS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ACROSS S TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED LOOKS HOT AND DRY. FCSTD AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE PROGD TO
BE IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY 105 OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  77  93  77  96  /  10  10  20  20  30
VICTORIA          96  76  97  75  98  /  20  20  30  20  30
LAREDO           102  78 102  77 103  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             97  75  97  75  99  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          90  79  90  80  92  /  10  20  20  20  30
COTULLA          101  77 100  76 101  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        95  75  95  75  97  /  10  10  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       88  79  88  80  91  /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



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