Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 292102
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR TRENDS
AND GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN TX.
CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH N-S AXIS OVER ERN/SRN TX SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING UPPER FORCING AND DECREASING
CIN/SIGNIFICANT CAPE SUNDAY...EXPECT MSTR LIMITATIONS TO PRECLUDE
CONVECTION. YET...ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER PWAT VALUES/LOW
CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND UPPER FORCING WL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGD TO BE DRAPED ACROSS E AND S TX MONDAY THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CWA AND MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED. FELT THAT THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
WAS TOO HIGH ON POPS MON-WED TIMEFRAME BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO BY WED...THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS E PLACING
MORE OF THE CWA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.
THEREFORE...WENT LOWER ON POPS THAN THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BUT KEPT
20-40 PERCENT WITH THE 40 OVER THE WATERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  91  75  94  75  /   0  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          70  91  73  93  73  /   0  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  98  76 100  77  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             69  95  72  97  73  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          76  88  78  89  78  /   0  10  20  20  30
COTULLA           70  96  72  98  73  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        71  94  74  95  74  /   0  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       77  87  78  90  79  /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.