Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280513
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS S TX AND AM
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
LOWER VSBYS AT TIMES TO MVFR AS WELL...MAINLY ALI TO VCT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID TO LATE THU MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP THU EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME MINOR
EDITS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. SOME HI RES
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS
BORDER BY EARLY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. WILL RETAIN THE 20 POP FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE...A MILD EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SE WINDS ONGOING RIGHT NOW WILL
SUBSIDE BY 01Z/02Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT ALI/VCT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 14Z/15Z AS SE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST THIS LATE AFTERNOON...A QUIET
EVENING IS EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG CAP. MODELS FIRE UP ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ON THE MEXICAN SIDE BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVEL
AND CAPPING...STORMS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING EAST. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING THE WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD START OFF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS SUPPORTING FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MID MORNING. DID SPREAD
20 POPS INLAND FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND WEAKER CAP.
DESPITE THIS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. FOCUS TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH TEXAS DEVELOPING AN MCS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...BUT WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ZONE BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET...COOLING TEMPS AT H85 WEAKENING THE CAP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS AVAILABLE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY TROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND
FRIDAY AS THE TAIL END OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCH.  WILL CARRY 40 POPS NORTH
TAPERING TO 30 SOUTH.  WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS SAT INTO SUN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.  A STRONG STORM OR
TWO...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD AROUND...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN...KEPT TEMPS BELOW THE MEX NUMBERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THAT I HELD ONTO VERY
LOW MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
THE MEX TEMPERATURES - LEANING CLOSER TO THE HPC NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  77  87  73  /  20  40  20  30  30
VICTORIA          74  87  75  86  71  /  20  40  30  40  30
LAREDO            76  92  76  91  73  /  30  30  10  20  30
ALICE             75  91  75  90  72  /  20  40  20  30  30
ROCKPORT          78  88  79  85  75  /  20  30  20  40  30
COTULLA           74  89  74  90  71  /  30  30  20  30  30
KINGSVILLE        76  89  76  89  73  /  20  40  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  85  76  /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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