Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
809 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017


Scattered convection wl cont to affect the FA tngt, with overall
coverage diminishing fm the W late tngt into Thu morning. VFR
conds wl prevail overall, with lower conds (MVFR/IFR) where
stronger storms affect a given fcst site. /44/

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Main forecast concern are conditions during the first 12 hours of
the period.

Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure centered to the
east of Wichita. A dryline extends southward to near Durant
Oklahoma. A warm front extends from the low center, southeast to
just north of Batesville.

Expected western portions of the warm front
to be first to focus convective development, with development
along the dry line nextas it accerlerates eastward. 19z KLZK
sounding reveals moderate instabilty: MUCAPE ~1600 j/kg, as well
as deep layer shear suffiecient for organized convective cells.

The overall severe thunderstorm threat will move from west to
east...between 23 and 09z.

Some precipitation will affect mainly northern areas during the
day on Thursday, in association with the slow moving upper low now
over Kansas.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The long term period will begin with upper low pressure systems in
the northeast and over the Rocky Mountains...with an upper ridge
over the central and southern Plains. The upper ridge moves east to
the eastern third of the country on Saturday...while the western low
does not move much. However, by Sunday the upper low deepens and
moves into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas...then passes through
Arkansas Monday. The low moves into the Great Lakes Tuesday and
southwest flow returns to Arkansas. Another upper low in the Rockies
Tuesday will move through the Plains Wednesday.

Friday night and Saturday will be dry across Arkansas but more rain
chances return Saturday night through Monday night. Several short
waves will move across the state ahead of the approaching upper low
and bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Good rain
chances are expected Monday as a pair of low pressure systems phase
together over Arkansas. Will have to keep an eye on the system
Monday, for as it looks now, if severe thunderstorms develop, they
would be in south Arkansas.  Will continue a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night and Wednesday in the
north as a weak short wave moves toward the area. Rain chances
increase for Wednesday night near a cold front. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the period.



.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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