Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230549
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE E
TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CDFNT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA ON MON AND MON NGT...
WAS SITUATED TO THE SE OF AR THIS AFTN. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT
CONTD TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO AR TODAY...ESP ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PARTS OF THE STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS RMN CONSISTENT TODAY REGARDING THE FCST IN THE
COMING DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH
OF WED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.

A NEW STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED NGT AND ON
THU. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL ALLOW
FOR DECENT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FA MAINLY THU AND EARLY THU
NGT. THE BEST RAIN CHCS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN AR DURG THIS
TIME PD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPR SUPPORT/LIFT.

BENIGN CONDS WL RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE FOR FRI AND FRI NGT AS
HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...BLD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WL START TO SEE SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS FM THE W FRI NGT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYS THAT WL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO MON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START OF LOW WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO A CLOSE LOW...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS NEAR THE
STATE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YR...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BEING 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL GROW AS INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES...AND HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL
GET...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN TO
END APR. WHILE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE COLD SNAP SEEN IN LATE APR/EARLY MAY OF
2013. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING TEMPS THAT COLD MAY BE LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SEE AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO END THIS FORECAST BY NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     51  77  50  80 /  10  60  20  10
CAMDEN AR         57  81  57  84 /  10  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       54  73  48  79 /  10  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  78  55  81 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  79  55  82 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  81  60  83 /  10  30  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      56  76  52  81 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  73  48  79 /  10  60  20  10
NEWPORT AR        52  77  51  80 /  10  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  81  57  82 /  10  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  76  51  81 /  10  50  10  10
SEARCY AR         50  79  53  81 /  10  50  20  10
STUTTGART AR      54  80  56  81 /  10  40  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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