Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010542
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1242 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI EXPECTED TO STAY TO
THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND UPDATED TO TAKE OUT OF FORECAST.
NONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH NOW OVER
KS...MO...IA WITH UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING IS
SPOTS. ALSO SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH SOUTH WIND
FLOW INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. SOME
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES APPROACH NORTHERN AR ON MONDAY AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE SOUTHEAST SITES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE
FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. DID INTRODUCE STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT KADF DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING AND TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH
TUESDAY AND MOVE FURTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL STALL IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...THEN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE CHANCES PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER
RIDGING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW
SHOWING THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENING OUT. WITH THIS BEING THE
CASE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  90  72  91 /  30  30  30  20
CAMDEN AR         72  92  73  93 /  10  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       69  87  71  90 /  30  40  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     72  92  73  93 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  88  71  90 /  30  40  30  20
NEWPORT AR        72  91  72  91 /  30  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  90  72  91 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         72  91  73  91 /  30  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      72  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56









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