Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 262316 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
516 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS FRI
EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON SAT. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AND LIFR
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING UNDER THIS PRECIP. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SAT...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL ALSO
DECREASE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LOW CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS ACRS THE FA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
PERSISTENT S/SELY WIND FLOW. SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN WAS NOTED ACRS
PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR DURG THE AFTN HRS. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

A CDFNT WAS LOCATED OVR THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTN. THE BNDRY WL
CONT TO WORK SLOLY EWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THRU AR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF THE BNDRY ACRS THE STATE
STILL RMNS PROBLEMATIC AS IT WL ENCOUNTER SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE END RESULT WL BE THAT RAIN CHCS WL BCM MORE LIKELY TNGT AND SAT
AS THE FNT MOVES CLOSER AND A SERIES OF UPR IMPULSES MOVE ACRS THE
MID SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS...QPF AMTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT. STILL LOOKING AT A
GENERAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.

RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FM THE W LATER SAT NGT AND SUN AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY SHIFTS E OF AR AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL BRING DRIER AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE FA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SEND
MOISTURE NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES CLIMB WITH THE SOUTH WINDS
MOVING INTO THE STATE...THERE COULD BE SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MANY DETAILS STILL TO BE WORKED OUT...HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  56  36  44 /  70  80  60  10
CAMDEN AR         55  62  42  48 /  70  90  80  30
HARRISON AR       47  48  29  43 /  70  60  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  58  38  47 /  70  70  40  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  59  39  46 /  70  80  70  20
MONTICELLO AR     53  63  43  47 /  70 100 100  50
MOUNT IDA AR      51  55  35  47 /  70  70  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  51  31  44 /  70  70  30  10
NEWPORT AR        50  56  37  44 /  70  90  80  20
PINE BLUFF AR     53  61  41  46 /  70 100 100  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  55  35  47 /  70  70  30  10
SEARCY AR         50  57  38  45 /  70  90  70  20
STUTTGART AR      51  58  40  45 /  70 100 100  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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