Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281951
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS...DUE TO THE
NATURE AND DURATION OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED TERM WILL BEGIN WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM...AS SWLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 53
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  73  64  77 /  30  80  80  70
CAMDEN AR         64  76  68  79 /  50  80  80  70
HARRISON AR       54  71  61  76 /  30  70  70  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  74  67  78 /  50  80  80  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  75  67  79 /  30  80  80  70
MONTICELLO AR     65  79  69  80 /  40  70  70  70
MOUNT IDA AR      61  73  67  77 /  50  80  80  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  72  61  77 /  30  70  70  70
NEWPORT AR        59  75  65  77 /  20  80  80  70
PINE BLUFF AR     63  77  67  79 /  40  80  80  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  74  65  78 /  40  80  80  70
SEARCY AR         59  75  64  77 /  30  80  80  70
STUTTGART AR      62  76  67  78 /  30  80  80  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...53


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