Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260600
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN WL CONT TO SLOLY TAPER OFF THRU THE
EARLY MRNG HRS. VFR CONDS CURRENTLY NOTED OVR THE FA...BUT DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY BR TO DVLP RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS AS SFC WINDS TURN
MORE W/SWLY. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$





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