Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161926
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
226 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Fair conditions are expected during this period.

Large scale surface high pressure, extending from western North
Texas, to the eastern Great Lakes, will move slowly eastward during
this period, as the upper flow across the U.S. loses amplitude. This
pattern will promote continued dry conditions.

Near normal afternoon temperatures are expected during this period,
with slightly below normal overnight low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
An upper level ridge will build across the southeastern US at the
beginning of the extended term, allowing temperatures to warm back
up to above climo, with low level moisture values increasing on
a southerly surface flow.

Models indicate a shoftwave moving into the area from the Plains in
the Friday night-Saturday time frame. The GFS is bringing the
shoftwave through a bit more quickly than the ECMWF and would favor
greater thunderstorm chances on Friday evening, with the ECMWF
favoring later development on Saturday. For the time being I have
placed some low POPs on Friday night, and have included greater
chances on Saturday.

A pronounced upper level trof will be moving into the area later on
Satuday into Sunday, along with a surface cold front. This should
bring a good chance of precip along and ahead of the front, along
with a cool-down back to climo normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     42  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         43  75  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       42  71  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    43  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  44  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     45  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      40  71  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  42  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        41  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     43  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   41  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         41  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      42  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53



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