Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181732 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Afternoon CU around 3500ft developing across much of the state
with some high clouds drifting over the area as well. Some RA/TSRA
may make its way into northern terminals during the early morning
hours Saturday, with little precip expected elsewhere. Winds will
be light and mainly out of the southeast, between 4-7kts then nearly
calm overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 640 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Some patchy fog and some MVFR CIGs were being observed at some
sites this morning...but these conditions should improve later
this morning. Expect VFR conditions for most if not all sites by
this afternoon. Rain chances will be limited...with only some
isolated activity expected through this evening. Better chances
will come after midnight for NRN sections of the state.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 313 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

All quiet this morning across the CWA as more stable and slightly
cooler air has moved into the state. Light winds have allowed some
patchy fog to develop for some locations...especially those that saw
the rainfall on Thu. This trend should continue for most areas this
Fri...but will see SRLY SFC flow intensify a bit by this afternoon.
This will be ahead of an approaching weak upper shortwave in NW flow
aloft. As a result...have POPs mentioned for the WRN counties this
Fri afternoon...then increasing and spreading further East/SE
tonight. However...have lowered POPs slightly as confidence has
decreased some regarding a potential TSRA complex moving SE into the
state. Looks like some activity will be seen for portions of the
state...but focused further north that yesterday`s thinking. Even
so...will only mention some slight chance to low end chance POPs at
this time for some isolated to scattered convection Fri night
through Sat morning.

By the Sat daytime hrs...have POPs decreasing slightly as the upper
wave moves east of the state. Could still see some isolated to
widely scattered convection with fairly hot and humid conditions
remaining in place...and with NW flow aloft continuing. This trend
should continue into Sat night...though less coverage expected at
this time given the loss of daytime heating.

Temps will remain near normal through the period...with mid 80s to
mid 90s expected. Heat index values will range from the 90s to just
over 100...with the highest values across SRN sections of the
state.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Ridging aloft will be centered south of the region at the beginning
of the period. At the surface, a decaying front will be located over
the region. Remnants of the frontal boundary will aid in the
development of scattered diurnal convection Sunday and Monday. By
Tuesday, though, the ridge will attempt to expand into the region,
which will push what`s left of the front out of the region.

However, this expansion will be short-lived, as the ridge begins to
break down late in the week. This will allow a cold front into the
region, with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing into
Thursday.

Biggest issue in the long term periods will be afternoon heat index
values Sunday through Wednesday. Values will range from around 100
to near 105 in the central and south. However, at this time, I`m not
expecting things to get much above that, and by Thursday, it
shouldn`t be as big of a concern as the cold front pushes in.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...226



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