Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS ON THROUGH...TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER 00Z
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN SOUTHERN TERMINALS A FEW HOURS LATER.
BESIDES SOME PATCHY BR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY ON THURSDAY...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





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