Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 290455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILING IMPROVES TO MVFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FOG DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS NEAR MIDDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY MIDDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR CEILING AND FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN IMPROVE TO A MVFR CEILING BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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