Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 010950
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO UPPER TROF OF LOW PRES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND MS RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY STATIONARY AND MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST
EASING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE TX/LA
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE LA/TX COAST. THIS SFC WAVE IS MOSTLY
A REFLECTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF MAIN
UPPER TROF LEADING TO THE BETTER LIFT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MID
RIVER AND POINTS WEST THIS MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE AND INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AFFECTING MAINLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASED IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTRODUCE
BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIP MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS A
RESULT BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS MAINLY BELOW 40 MPH COMBINED WITH
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE TWEAKING THESE
VALUES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROF.  A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.  WILL HAVE GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TRENDING HIGHER TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LEAD TO IMPROVING
DEEP LAYER LIFT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 02.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE MOSTLY TO WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS GENERATED FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  70  91  72  90 /  30  20  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   89  73  91  74  90 /  20  10  50  30  50
DESTIN      88  78  89  76  88 /  10  10  50  30  40
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  90 /  30  20  50  30  60
WAYNESBORO  87  67  90  69  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CAMDEN      91  68  90  70  89 /  30  30  50  40  60
CRESTVIEW   93  69  92  70  91 /  20  10  50  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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