Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 240354 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1054 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A longwave trough extending
from the Rockies to the east coast will continue to dig southward
over the region through Tuesday afternoon. A secondary cold front
approaching from the northwest will cross the Mississippi River
this evening, and accelerate toward the northern Gulf coast after
midnight. This front will then continue moving southeast across
the northern gulf through early Tuesday morning. This feature will
bring a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air to the forecast area
late tonight with northwest winds again gusting to near 20 mph on
Tuesday. Skies will be clear to mostly clear overnight. Sunny
skies on Tuesday will bring a modest recovery to our afternoon
high temperatures. No rain is forecast through the period.

Low temperatures tonight will be around 5 degrees below normal
ranging from 47 to 52 degrees inland areas, mid 50s along the
immediate coastal sections, and upper 50s at the beaches. High
temperatures Tuesday will be around 5 degrees below normal, ranging
from 70 to 75 degrees. /22

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...Rain remains
out of the short term period with temperatures below seasonal
normals. With the passage of a reinforcing frontal boundary deep
into the Gulf by Tuesday night, bringing lowering thicknesses and
cold air advection processes to the central Gulf coast, overnight
low temperatures sink to near 40 over the interior with mid 40s
possibly as far south to portions of the coast. Under sunny skies,
highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s, well below normal.
with low dewpoints in place, clear skies and light winds, a good
radiational cooling night favors overnight lows could dip into the
mid to upper 30s along and north of I-10. Mid to upper 40s along
the beaches. As surface high over the central Gulf coast Thursday
lifts northeast over the southeast US, a modification in daytime
highs into the lower half of the 70s is anticipated. From a
climatological standpoint, Thursday`s highs remain below normal
by around 3 degrees on average. /10

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The next upper level trough
and attendant cold front is expected to approach the Mississippi
Valley region Friday and advance east across our forecast area
sometime in the late Friday or Saturday time frame. Medium range
operational model guidance continues to show some differences on
timing and available moisture with this next feature, but will
continue to mention small chances of rain showers in the forecast
during the late Friday to late Saturday time frame due to
uncertainty. Will keep mention of thunder out at this time, as
very little instability looks to be in place.

A reinforcing surge of cooler and dry air is favored to arrive
behind the front late in the weekend with temperatures once again
trending lower. Highs potentially only reaching the lower to mid
60s by next Sunday. Also some potential for morning lows at least
in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland by next Saturday and Sunday
nights. /10

MARINE...A moderate northerly wind flow this evening will decrease
slightly ahead of a secondary cold front approaching from the
northwest. The northerly winds will increase and seas will rebuild
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a reinforcing surge of cooler air
moves south over the northern gulf in the wake of the front.
Offshore winds will finally decrease through mid week. A light east
to southeast wind flow will develop Thursday and Friday ahead of
another cold front approaching from the northwest late in the week.
The cold frontal passage is expected to occur Friday night. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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