Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 041611 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF DENSE
ADVECTION FOG PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
NOON. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THROUGH THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG...TO AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG
VERSUS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MARINE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS INLAND APPROACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH PRONOUNCED
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AROUND 700 MB. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$


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