Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 272246 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...Radar shows mainly isolated showers moving east
northeast across the central Gulf coast this evening. Considering
coverage, will call for the potential of a few shra passing by in
the vcty thru 28.02Z. A general light southwest flow is forecast.
Cig bases and vsby at vfr categories. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Deep layer ridge of high
pressure extends from off the southeast US coast, westward to the far
eastern portions of the state of MS through tonight. A weakness in
the ridge axis is situated from the Mid-South, southward to LA and
down to across the TX coast. Deepest layer moisture rotates anti-
cyclonically around the western periphery of the upper level ridge,
pooling over the Mid-South tonight. There are indications that pwat
values will lower over the central Gulf coast from near 2 inches this
evening to ~ 1.6 inches by daybreak Thu. Considering this and modest
layer forcing within the weakness/trof axis over the Mid-South,
lingering evening showers and storms are expected to dissipate with
pops trending off to 10% or less after midnight. Although, the upper
air pattern changes little into the day Thu, chances of showers and
storms are somewhat reduced. With better ridging aloft nosing in over
the eastern zones, larger scale subsidence favors keeping pops at
~10%. with the northwest zones continuing to be under the weaker
portion of the ridge, daytime heating and instability results in
slight chance of storms mainly along and west of I-65.

Southwest Atlantic surface high holds and extends westward to the
central Gulf coast tonight and Thu, maintaining a light southwest
flow pattern. This results in very little change in temperatures. Lower
to mid 70s interior, to closer to 80 beaches for lows. Daytime highs
on Thu mostly in the lower to mid 90s. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...An upper trof
extending from just west of the lower Mississippi river valley to the
Great Lakes region weakens somewhat through the period while
remaining nearly in the same position. This maintains a deep layer
south to southwest flow over the forecast area which weakens through
the period, but maintains abundant deep layer moisture over the area
with precipitable water values remaining near 2.0 inches. A surface
ridge remains over the northern Gulf through the period while a weak
and diffuse surface trof lingers over the Gulf coast states,
occasionally dissipating.  Expect a combination of sea breeze
initiated convection each day along with convection initiated by a
series of shortwaves moving through the upper trof pattern and
interacting with the weak, diffuse surface trof. Highs will be mostly
in the lower 90s with heat indices of 100-104. Lows will range from
the lower/mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The upper trof moves off into
the western Atlantic through the period while upper ridging builds
into the region. A surface ridge is expected to remain near the
northern Gulf while a weak and diffuse surface trof lingers over the
Gulf coast states for much of the period. Deep layer moisture remains
high with precipitable waters near 2.0 inches, possibly 2.0-2.25
inches, and expect scattered convection to develop each day. Highs
will be mostly in the lower 90s with some mid 90s, and heat indices
will range from 100-106. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to
the upper 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...A light south to southwest flow looks to persist over the
next several days with surface high pressure extending from the
southwest Atlantic, westward into the central Gulf. Seas around 2
feet to end the week...settle to near a foot going into the weekend.
Winds, waves and seas will be locally higher with the passage of any
isolated to scattered marine storms. /10


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-



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