Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 232320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...VFR conditions and light north winds prevail
through the period. /49


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Shortwave energy moves into
an upper trough over the eastern Conus, pushing surface high
pressure southeast across the Plains and Lower Mississippi River
Valley. This keeps the forecast area under cool northerly flow
through the first two periods of the forecast, and with that, temps
below seasonal. A light freeze is possible along and north of the
highway 84 corridor tonight, especially with winds settling.
Wednesday continues with temps a bit below seasonal. Areas along and
south of the coast will see an increase in mid/upper level clouds as
a bit of shortwave energy passes south of the coast. Am not
expecting this to affect the majority of the land portion of the
forecast area, though. /16

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Clear and dry
conditions expected through early Friday as high pressure builds
over the area. Moisture levels will increase along with increasing
clouds by Friday afternoon as high pressure moves east of the
area, allowing a return flow to develop. As moisture levels
increase and an upper trough approaches from the west, rain
chances will increase from the west Friday night. Temperatures
will be near seasonable levels. /13

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Rain becomes likely
Saturday into Saturday night as the upper trough moves east and
sends a cold front toward the area. The 23.12Z global models have
come into better agreement with the area of low pressure forecast
to develop across the northern Gulf on Saturday. They now agree on
tracking the low south of the area, however the ECMWF remains
north of the GFS and would create higher rain totals across the
Gulf coast. However, both solutions would keep thunderstorm
chances primarily over the marine area. Rain chances end from the
west Sunday afternoon as the front moves east of the area. A drier
and cooler airmass follows for the start of the new work week. /13

MARINE...Surface high pressure pushing towards the area will
bring continued offshore flow through Thursday. Mainly unprotected
waters will see a moderate/strong to light/moderate night/day
oscillation as isentropic downglide mixes stronger winds above the
surface down overnight. As the surface high passes north of the
area Thursday into Thursday night, winds will shift to easterly,
with a coastal- jet component combined with a shortwave moving
east over the northern Gulf keeping a moderate to strong easterly
flow Thursday night into Saturday. Strong offshore flow returns
Sunday as the Gulf shortwave moves east of the area and a strong
system pushes southeast across the central/Eastern Conus. /16


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CST Thursday for GMZ631-632-650-



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