Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 310504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AVIATION... 31.06Z TAF FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A PROB30 GROUP AS SOME POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PROVIDE BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...AREA RADAR DETECTING THAT THE EARLIER SCATTERED
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. THE
RAIN-COOLED ENVIRONMENT WHERE A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
70S...WITH UPPER TO 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WHERE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. ADJUSTED POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
STARTING AT MIDNIGHT...AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO DUE TO THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE RAIN. CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY A RESULT OF HIGH LEVEL THUNDERSTORM
DEBRIS CLOUDS...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...

THE AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  IS
RIDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING
LATE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WANES.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE TOMORROW...SO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP
TOMORROW AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL VORT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST.

FARTHER INLAND...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING...AND SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LARGELY SUPPRESSED. FORTUNATELY...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 90S FORECAST...LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE DRY AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS REGION DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS.

LONG TERM...

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EASTWARD HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...THIS
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED
CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AS A RESULT...OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMALLY SEEN AT AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR THE SEABREEZE FRONT IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND COASTAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER FARTHER INLAND WHERE THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
CAPPING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

CONDITIONS LOOK TO CHANGE CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE SLIDES DOWN FROM
THE MIDWESTERN STATES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...IT WILL DEEPEN A TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL HEAT AND MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT AND REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL AS THE SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL ALONG THE
COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER DUE TO THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER RESULTING FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE SEABREEZE DOMINATING THE OVERALL WIND FIELD. AS A RESULT...AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS NEXT
WEEK. SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  93  75  93  76 /  20  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  77  91  77 /  20  20  30  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  87  80 /  20  30  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
WAYNESBORO  70  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      69  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   71  94  74  91  74 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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