Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291126
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Prolonged rain event now underway across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa this morning.

Strong northward moisture transport was in place across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri at 07z with models maintaining this
trend through the day as moisture area broadens and axis shifts
eastward into Missouri. Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
still appear to have best chance to receive the most significant
rainfall today as the main weather system over the southern
Rockies tracks into south central Kansas by late afternoon.

Although rain will gradually diminish tonight into Thursday as
the main moisture axis shifts east ahead of the slow moving system,
light to moderate rain is expected to continue as isentropic lift
remains over much of the forecast area through tonight. System
continues its slow track east on Thursday reaching central
Missouri by late Thursday afternoon. Lingering showers are likely
for much of the day Thursday especially in the east before ending
Thursday evening as the system moves further off to the east.
Clouds may decrease enough on Friday for at least a peek of
sunshine but the next system will be moving into the southern
Rockies Friday afternoon poised to bring another round of rain to
the area for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

As mentioned above, another strong upper trough will move into
the southern Rockies and then the southern plains Friday night
into Sunday bringing another chance of rain to the area for the
weekend. Main difference this time is that models are similar in
taking this system further south with the more persistent rainfall
also dropping south so some chance of sun by late Sunday afternoon.
Dry conditions then for Monday but some chance of rain again by
Tuesday as next trough moves into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Widespread rains will continue across eastern Nebraska through the
TAF period, resulting in IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys for much of the
period. Periods of moderate rainfall could drop vsbys to IFR at
times as well. KOFK will be on the northwest edge of the more
persistent rainfall, so variable cigs/vsbys are more likely there.
But all in all, expect conditions to be near or in the IFR flight
category through 12Z Thursday. Northeast winds are expected to
increase into the 15 to 25kt range after 18Z, then turn more
northerly by 06Z at all sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan


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