Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 272114
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and hot weather is expected Thursday and Friday. A cold front
arrives this weekend, bringing breezy conditions and cooler
weather for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This evening and tonight:  T-storm activity has been very isolated
so far this afternoon with a bulk of the activity focusing over
the Central Idaho Panhandle south of I-90. With temperatures
climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s and dewpoints still in the
50s, evening convection is far from over and we will be monitoring
radar closely the next few hours. The main threats with any storms
will be heavy rainfall but a few stronger cells may strengthen
enough for small hail and gusty winds near 35 mph. We have been
monitoring a shortwave tracking across the WA/OR border this
afternoon and it now looks as if there is another midlevel
circulation spinning up over North-Central WA which may enhance
convection the next few hours across NE WA and N ID. Most activity
will wane near sunset with mostly clear skies, light winds, and
mild temperatures overnight. /sb

Thursday thorugh Saturday Night...Weak and rather flat dirty
ridging shows some amplification to allow for a continued general
warming and drying trend that peaks on Friday and has a tendency
to keep the storm track pushed up north to within close proximity
of the Southern British Columbia. This changes as a cold front
passes through late Friday night into Saturday allowing for Breezy
conditions and cooling apparent in the cooler daytime highs
forecast for Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday: The upper level low and associated cold
front will continue on the southeastward track out of BC on
Sunday. Models are in good agreement on the timing, but the ECMWF
amplifies the trough a bit more giving better precip chances for
the north. The main story with this low`s passage will be the
winds, though, as moisture will be lacking by the weekend. PWATs
drop by nearly half from a few days prior under increasingly dry
westerly mid level flow, leaving very little from which we will
see any precip. One region which could see some convection will be
along the mountains of our northern border, where enough moisture
and instability will exist to see some scattered showers and even
a thunderstorm during the day Sunday. Potential for elevated fire
conditions exists Sunday as winds will be breezy following the
cold frontal passage, combined with borderline RH levels, it will
be something to watch in the coming days.

Monday brings a brief respite as a weak ridge builds in,
sandwiched between two quick moving troughs, but doesn`t stick
around long before a second upper low swings through sometime late
Monday into Tuesday. Models aren`t in good agreement on the timing
yet but the late Monday into early Tuesday time frame looks most
likely. The 500mb cold pool moves over and destabilizes the
northern part of the region and by the afternoon, returning the
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the northern mountains.
Winds will be gusty on Tuesday as well with the frontal passage,
meaning enhanced fire conditions will be possible. Temperatures
Sunday through the early week will be significantly cooler than
the 90s of this week, only reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s.
/bwilliams

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Another weak shortwave moves into the region today.
Idaho and NE WA will carry the highest risk for isold -tsra but a
few cells will be possible in the Cascades and northern Columbia
Basin. Confidence is lower today given subsidence on the backside
of the shortwave. May be able to remove vcsh from KGEG-KSFF before
00z issuance. Convection wanes earlier this evening...after
00Z. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions. /sb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  93  68  94  64  89 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  63  92  63  93  61  88 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        56  92  57  93  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       72  99  69 100  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       58  95  60  95  55  91 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  88  57  89  55  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        58  89  57  90  57  85 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     65  98  66  99  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  98  70  98  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           65  97  68  98  64  92 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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