Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Thunderstorms developed ahead of windshift/cold front moving
through our eastern counties. A shortwave has enhanced winds aloft
with 30-35kt 0-6km bulk shear over the northern cwfa/central MO
down to 20 kts or so along the MO/AR border. Better instability
resides along the MO/AR border versus points north in central MO.
All-in-all there will be severe mixed mode storm risk over the
next 2-3 hours in our eastern counties with a wind/hail risk.

The effective front will drop to near the MO/AR line tonight.
Another upstream shortwave will move southeast into eastern OK/KS
late tonight and early Saturday morning with increasing chances
for some storms over the southwestern portion of the forecast
area. Overall severe storm chances will be low with this next
round of storms.

Daytime highs should actually remain below normal for this time of
year on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Could see a repeat round of convection Saturday night into Sunday
with yet another shortwave moving through the area as the the sfc
front begins to lift back to the north.

Medium range guidance is still consistent in gradually building
upper level heights/ridging back into the central CONUS next week.
We will see a return to hotter temperatures with the possibility
of heat advisories/headlines with heat indices progged to reach
over 100-105 deg F again for a few days. Rain chances, while not
zero, will be greatly reduced by this time with high
pressure/warmer air aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout this afternoon, with tempo groups for KSGF and KBBG.
Localized MVFR conditions will occur in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Confidence is not high for tomorrow morning so a
prob30 group has been added to all TAF sites. Outside of
thunderstorms conditions will be VFR with light winds.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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