Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 301140 AAA

640 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

/12Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley
will develop south into the Northern Edwards Plateau early
this morning. The eastern edge of this precipitation is
affecting San Angelo. None of the other TAF sites will be
affected. Patchy low clouds have developed along parts of the
I-10 corridor, and carrying a temporary ceiling at KSOA and
KJCT early this morning. Cloud cover is expected to decrease
later this morning, and the possibility for any redevelopment
of showers/storms is too remote for inclusion in the TAFs.
South winds will develop this morning and continue through
the remainder of the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

(Today and Tonight)

None of the models picked up well on the convection on Monday
evening and still ongoing early this morning. Numerous outflow
boundaries and a low level jet of 30+ knots underneath northerly
flow aloft is a pattern prone to these type of nocturnal
convective events, although it appears there was a weak embedded
shortwave in the flow as well. In any case, best chance of rain
will be the ongoing convection this morning, which should weaken
but likely persist through sunrise. Will place the highest PoPs
today for the first few hours after sunrise from the I-20
corridor down to San Angelo and Brownwood, and then trim them down
quite a bit for the afternoon. Given the outflow boundaries
around, will be hard pressed to go no PoPs for the afternoon but
will trim them back down to isolated. Otherwise, clouds should
decrease and allow plenty of afternoon sun, but given the now wet
soils, reaching the temperatures we saw on Monday may be
difficult. Will trim them down a few degrees.

(Wednesday through Tuesday)

Upper level ridge over the Rockies will build south and take a
firmer hold over western Texas for much of the week. It does place
West Central Texas in northwest and northerly flow for part of the
time, which can be problematic, but see no indication of another
shortwave set to move across the area. Then again, these models
often struggle with these waves more than a day or two in advance.
With models much drier, will pull the mention of storms out of
much of the forecast, but will need to continue to monitor.
Otherwise, temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals,
especially towards the weekend when soils will have had a chance
to dry out.


Abilene  94  73  93  71  93 /  30   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  91  70  90  69  90 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  89  70  90  69  87 /  20  10  10   5   5




Aviation: 19
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