Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 282338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate most of West Central Texas for
the next 24 hours. Stratus may return late tonight to the Brady
and Junction terminals; if so, expect MVFR ceilings tomorrow
morning at those locations. Thunderstorms remain in the forecast
for potential development again tomorrow afternoon, at or near all


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

(Tonight and Monday)

We have a similar setup this afternoon as we had yesterday with most
areas over West Central Texas experiencing some shower and/or
thunderstorm activity during the time of peak heating. As was the
case yesterday, this activity will begin to dissipate into  the
evening as we lose daytime heating. Models are bringing better low
to mid level moisture associated with an upper low over Southeast
Texas westward over the CWA tonight and into tomorrow. Have bumped
up our rainfall chances accordingly with near 40 POPs expected
during the day tomorrow. We should also see a little cooler
afternoon highs tomorrow, mostly in the upper 80s. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

(Tuesday through Saturday)

A weak mid and upper level trough of low pressure will persist west
of the forecast area over New Mexico through Thursday and then
weaken and move north of the forecast area late in the week and
into next weekend. A combination of this upper trough, moderate
upslope low level flow from the east, and elevated atmospheric
moisture will result in a persistent chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially during late afternoon
and evening hours.

Best rain chances currently appear to be on Tuesday at which time a
deeper moist air mass moves into the forecast area from the
southeast associated with the west edge of an upper level low
pressure area along the Gulf coast. This mid and upper level
moisture surge will increase atmospheric precipitable water values
and hence favors reduce cloud entrainment. The result will be more
likely and more persistent showers and enhance rain
chances. Currently this weather pattern favors showers and
thunderstorms but does not favor severe storms. The primary threats
from thunderstorms will be deadly lightning and the possibility of
locally heavy rain which could cause ponding hazards on roadways or
a brief localized flood threat. Gusty winds will accompany showers
and thunderstorms.

A moderate ridge of high pressure is expected to develop and move
west across west central Texas early on Friday and will persist
through Sunday. This more stable flow pattern aloft associated with
sinking and drying air, combined with a return to southeast surface
winds will be less conducive for rain across the area. Rain chances
reflect this scenario. The forecast calls for lower chances for rain
on next Friday through Sunday.


Abilene  69  89  69  89 /  20  40  30  40
San Angelo  70  90  69  89 /  20  40  30  40
Junction  70  88  69  87 /  20  40  30  40
Brownwood  70  87  70  88 /  20  40  20  30
Sweetwater  69  86  68  87 /  20  40  30  40
Ozona       68  88  69  87 /  20  40  40  40


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