Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 010426
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1126 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions for a few more hours during the early morning.
However, stratus will develop across much of West Central Texas
Sunday morning due to moisture advection over a shallow cool
airmass. Going with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals between
10Z and 20Z. Keeping the KABI terminal VFR for now. The ceilings
will rise to low end VFR(BKN035) by late Sunday afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will develop Sunday evening across the
area, and going VCTS at KSOA and VCSH at the remaining terminals
after 00Z. The winds will be mainly east to northeast with a few
gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions this evening into the early morning hours of
Sunday. However, stratus will develop across much of West Central
Texas Sunday morning due to moisture advection over a shallow
cool airmass. Going with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals
between 10Z and 20Z Sunday. Keeping the KABI terminal VFR for now.
The ceilings will rise to low end VFR(BKN035) by late Sunday
afternoon. The winds will be mainly east to northeast with a few
gusts to 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet weather expected tonight with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow generally west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Sonora line. An upper level shortwave centered near the southern
tip of NV currently, will swing east tonight and shear out into a
wave as it moves east toward the southern plains Sunday. At the
surface, while pressure falls result in far west Texas from the
passing trough, high pressure will continue to build south into the
southern Plains, pushing a cold front through our area and into the
mountains of west Texas.

For tonight, light and variable or east winds this afternoon will
become northeast overnight and increase to around 10 knots as a
shallow cool air mass continues to sink southward through the area.
Moist, southeasterly flow over the cool air mass should result in
low clouds over the southern half of the CWA, if not more, by
tomorrow morning. As the upper level shortwave approaches, surface
flow will increase out of the northeast/east due to pressure rises
to our north and relative pressure falls in western Texas,
increasing upslope lift, and surface convergence west of our CWA
into our southwestern counties. This, along lift from the
approaching shortwave will result in the chance for showers and
thunderstorms along our western border with the best chances in
Crockett, Sterling, and Irion counties.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

Isentropic lift over a cold air mass, combined with weak upper
disturbances associated with an upper low moving east across the
Central Plains, will bring a continued chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible early Sunday evening, mainly along the
I-10 corridor where GFS SB CAPES of 1000 to 1400 J/KG reside. The
main threat is an isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail.

Isentropic lift ends early Monday morning, with shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming isolated by Noon. It will be cool
Monday with cloudy skies and surface high pressure over the
region. Highs are expected in the mid and upper 60s. Clearing
skies and light winds Monday night will bring good radiational
cooling conditions, with lows expected in the upper 40s.

A warming trend will continue through the rest of the work week,
as surface high pressure moves into South Texas, blocking
moisture return from the Gulf, and allowing dry air from the
southwest to move in. Low level moisture return does return by
Saturday, however, as a strong upper low develops in the 4 corners
region. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  68  51  66 /   0  10  50  40
San Angelo  56  71  53  66 /   0  20  60  50
Junction  60  77  57  66 /   5  10  60  50

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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