Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 291146
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather through
the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms may affect KBBD through
14z, where VCTS was maintained in the TAF. Showers and
thunderstorms may affect all terminals this afternoon and evening.
Location and timing of this is uncertain. For now, will not
mention the showers and thunderstorms in the TAFs, until
confidence increases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A challenging forecast is in store for today. Currently, showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the northern half of the area,
leaving numerous outflow boundaries in their wakes. Most of the
short range models have not handled the convection well overnight,
making today`s forecast a little more interesting. The thunderstorms
were efficient rain producers overnight, with some areas receiving
between 1 and 3 inches of rainfall. For today, we expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially where any leftover
boundaries may lie. Precipitable water values will remain at or
slightly above 1.5 inches, making locally heavy rainfall a distinct
possibility.

Guidance has been running too cool with afternoon highs the last
couple of days. However, increased cloud cover is expected today
compared to yesterday. If the cloud cover ends up being less than
expected, we may need to raise temperatures.

60

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

By early Saturday the upper short-wave trough will be over east
Texas with some lingering showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
half of the forecast area. Rainfall should be east of the area by
Saturday evening with upper high pressure building over the forecast
area. Looking for a hot and dry forecast through the remainder of
the coming week as upper high pressure dominates the Southern
Plains. Afternoon highs will generally be in the mid 90s with
morning lows in the lower 70s. Both forecasted highs and lows will
be around 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  95  74  96 /  40  40  20  10  10
San Angelo  95  72  96  74  97 /  30  30  10  10  10
Junction  93  73  96  73  95 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll






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