Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 260451
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1151 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect returning stratus to bring MVFR ceilings to our souther
three terminals later tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
dominate. Wind direction will vary tomorrow, as a surface through
moves east, across the southern Plains. After sunset tomorrow
evening, winds will again come from the south at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate much of West Central Texas for
the next 24 hours. However, watch for patchy stratus to create
MVFR ceilings for a few hours tomorrow morning at our Sonora,
Junction, and Brady terminals. Flight weather conditions will
again become VFR, at those three terminals, by mid to late
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Temperatures will be warm tonight with south-southwest winds. Lows
are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. Low-level moisture will
increase overnight, and patchy low cloud development is expected
late tonight and early Friday morning across the southern and
southeastern parts of our area. With the low-level thermal ridge a
little stronger across our area, along with considerable sunshine,
temperatures will be hot again Friday afternoon. Highs are expected
to be in the upper 90s across the southeastern part of our area, and
mostly in the 100-102 degree range across the Concho Valley and Big
Country. These highs will be near the records at Abilene (99, set in
1896) and San Angelo (102, set in 1973). Southwest to west winds are
expected during the day Friday, but wind speeds will be lower than
today.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

Unseasonably hot temperatures are again forecast on Saturday with
afternoon highs mainly in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. A dryline
will advance to the central portions of the forecast area by late
afternoon, then retreat west during the evening hours. A highly
unstable atmosphere is forecast ahead of the dryline, along with
moderate 0-6 KM shear values. If the cap is broken during the
late afternoon or evening hours and thunderstorms develop along
the dryline, these storms may quickly become strong to severe.
Slight chance PoPs were continued across mainly the eastern half
of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.

On Sunday, a cold front will move through the area, with gusty
northeast winds and cooler temperatures behind it. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may develop along the front Sunday afternoon, in
our southern counties. Additional post frontal shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible Sunday night into Monday.
Only minor changes were made to the inherited PoPs, with the
highest number across the southern half of the area.

Tuesday through the end of the work week, an upper level low will
approach southern California/Baja California, with a slow track
toward West Central Texas. The 12z ECMWF is now a bit farther south
and east with the placement of the low, closer to the GFS. This
would place the forecast area in southwest flow aloft, with
intermittent disturbances moving across the region. Although not
everyone will see rain on a daily basis, timing of any disturbances
in the southwest flow aloft are hard to pinpoint this far out. So
for now, slight to chance PoPs were continue through much of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73 100  73  98 /   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  72 101  74  99 /   0   0   5   5
Junction  71  97  74  95 /   0   0   5  10
Brownwood  71  98  73  95 /   0   0   5  10
Sweetwater  72 100  71  98 /   0   0   5   5
Ozona       71  99  72  96 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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