Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 032052
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM(TIME PERIOD)...

(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, PLACING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS WE HAVE SEEN AT TIMES STRETCHING FROM
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY AND INTO THE BIG
BEND HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS BIG BEND. MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE LIKELY
WEAKENED THE CAP HOWEVER, AND NEW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A STERLING CITY TO ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE.
WILL STILL BE ISOLATED, BUT WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED POPS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

EVEN BETTER DEFINED NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AS WELL. BETTER CONVECTION
UP THERE WILL MAKE A SLOW TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO THE AREA, LIKELY DISSIPATING AS IT GETS
CLOSER RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. WILL INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS RIGHT
ALONG THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR TUESDAY,
AND MONITOR TO SEE IF THE AREA MIGHT NEED TO BE EXPANDED TOWARDS SAN
ANGELO OR ABILENE LATER. OTHERWISE, HOT CONTINUES, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM(TIME PERIOD)...

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER OUR HERE TO STAY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND PROBABLY BEYOND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND BRING HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  76  98  77 101 /  10  10   5   5
SAN ANGELO  74 101  77 101 /  10  10   5   5
JUNCTION  72 100  75  98 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/21



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