Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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246
FXUS64 KSJT 252324
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
624 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017



.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all sites through the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be light south/southeasterly through
tonight. By 15Z winds will turn southwesterly gusting to 20 to 25
knots at KABI, KSJT and KSOA and gusting to 15 to 20 knots at the
remaining terminals through the remainder of the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

As the upper ridge over the forecast area moves to the east through
tomorrow an upper level trough will move over the Southern Plains in
its wake. An associated dry line positioned along our western CWA
border will be pushed into our western counties tomorrow morning and
should be in our eastern counties by tomorrow evening. Generally light
southerly surface winds tonight will become southwesterly to
westerly and increase in speed as the dryline moves through the area
tomorrow. Morning temperatures tomorrow will be warmer with lows in
the low to mid 50s. Afternoon temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than seasonal norms will highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)

Active weather pattern setting up across West Central Texas, with
strong to severe storms still looking possible across the area for
Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

Quick moving upper trough moves into the Central Plains Sunday
Night, with convection looking like it will remain north and east
of the area. Weak cold front will move across West Central Texas
by Monday morning, leaving mainly a much drier air mass in its
wake. Moisture return will start Monday Night however, as another
stronger upper level low moves into the Southwest US. This upper
low will move into New Mexico by Tuesday afternoon. A surface
dryline will become established across the South Plains and
Permian Basin Tuesday afternoon, with strong to severe storms
possible east of the dryline into at least the western portions of
West Central Texas for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.
Dryline retreats some overnight, before a cold front overtakes it
and surges eastward across West Central Texas late Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning. Convection should be fairly widespread as
this feature moves through, with enough lift and shear from the
nearby upper level low to continue the risk of strong to severe
storms.

The main upper level low slowly pushes northeast into Kansas by
Thursday, but models continue to show another potent upper level
storm system moving across West Central Texas for Saturday and
Sunday.

Temperatures will largely be unremarkable for the upcoming week.
Highs in the 70s and 80s, with morning lows in the 40s on the dry
air mass days and the 50s/60s on the more moist air mass mornings.

FIRE WEATHER...

Tomorrow, we should see near critical fire weather conditions over
most of the area as west winds pick up to at least 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts, and RH values drop into the 10-15 percent range west
of a Brownwood to Junction line. At this time, the area of critical
fire weather conditions are forecasted along and west of our western
tier of counties. However, the speed and positioning of the dry may
require upgrading some of our western counties from elevated to
critical.&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  86  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  89  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  87  54  88 /   0   5  10   0
Brownwood  51  88  52  80 /   0   5  10   0
Sweetwater  54  84  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       55  86  51  84 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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