Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 191147
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A few low clouds showing up this morning across far southern
counties near SOA...but not enough to warrant mention of MVFR
ceilings in area TAFs this morning. Will see some mid level clouds
move in ahead of an upper shortwave later this afternoon/evening.
Also expecting a few thunderstorms mainly after 0Z ahead of the
upper trough...but location and coverage is too uncertain to include
mention in TAFs at this time.  Better chance of storms will be just
beyond this TAF valid period into Sunday.  Winds mainly
southeast...below 20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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