Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 302347
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

I-20 corridor has had more surface heating this afternoon, so
have a vcts mentioned at KABI this evening. Terminals farther
south may see storms late evening as a shortwave moves over the
region...as cirrus blow off from the Southwest Mountains seems to
temporarily decreased activity. Otherwise stratus with MVFR
ceilings moves in after midnight and toward morning from south to
north. Mentioned VCTS at most terminals by 18Z Tuesday as upper
low approaches with several upper shortwaves.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

An upper level low is centered across Arizona, putting West Central
Texas in southwest flow aloft. An upper level disturbance is moving
northeast across Big Bend/far West Texas, with an increase in shower
and thunderstorms development evident across this region. Some of
this activity may move into parts of area tonight as the
aforementioned disturbance approaches. Uncertainty remains on
exactly how much coverage we will see, as the atmosphere across West
Central Texas remains fairly stable in the wake of last nights
thunderstorms. Still, enough heating is expected that should allow
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon and possibly better coverage this evening. Although
widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with the best chance across our western
counties. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s.

Much like today, rain chance on Tuesday will be dependent on how
much shower and thunderstorm activity occurs overnight and whether
any upper level disturbances move across the region in the southwest
flow aloft. At this time, the best chance looks to be during peak
heating, during the late afternoon. For now, chance PoPs were
continued for a large portion of the forecast area given the
continued uncertainty. High temperatures will be below seasonal
normals, generally in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)

No real change to the ongoing longer term portion of the forecast,
with periods of showers and storms likely for much of the upcoming
week. Upper level low over the Southwest US will meander very
slowly towards West Central Texas, reaching the area on Thursday.
Ahead of the system, abundant moisture will remain in place. Weak
shortwaves rotating around the upper low will move across the area
and trigger several rounds of showers and storms across West
Central Texas. Given the moisture in place and the not terribly
fast movement expected, any of these storms will have the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. However, strongest
wave looks to be approaching Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and
this will be the time period with the potential for the most
widespread heavy rainfall. Too much uncertainty with regards to
timing of the shortwave for a Flash Flood Watch at this point, but
did mention locally heavy rainfall in the grids for these time
periods. Watch may be needed at some point this week.

Upper level low drifts over West Central Texas for Thursday, and
then just off to the east for Friday and Saturday. Best rainfall
chances will be pushing into Central and east Texas ahead of the
low, but with no cap in place, unstable air mass may be able to
produce scattered convection at least during the afternoon and
early evening time periods. POPs will remain in place, especially
for the eastern areas, through the weekend.

Weak cold front pushes into the area for Wednesday, adding a focus
for convection, as well as bringing slightly cooler temperatures.
With the clouds in place, highs on Thursday and Friday may stay in
the 70s for many locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  83  64  80 /  40  50  70  60
San Angelo  67  85  65  80 /  40  50  60  60
Junction  69  85  66  79 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04


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