Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 140702
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will persist through tonight as a weak frontal
boundary settles south of the NY/PA border. A low pressure system
will track along this front on Thursday, bringing increased chances
for rain showers by Thursday night and into Friday. Dry weather
briefly returns Saturday as high pressure passes south of the region
before an unsettled and much colder pattern returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface analysis this evening depicts a frontal boundary
settling south of the region from northern PA to central NY as a
weak, moisture starved sfc low drifts east into New England.
While this boundary will stall out in close proximity to the
forecast area overnight, plenty of dry air under a building
ridge will maintain quiet weather across the region with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s tonight.

A shortwave trough will break away from a cut-off low over the four
corners area tonight, with surface low pressure over the southern
Plains moving northeast and along the nearby stationary front by
Thursday night. Initially, dry and calm weather will continue into
Thursday as the stationary front moves north into western NY. A
surge of warmer air will move into the region, however high pressure
to the north will hold the warmer air aloft north of the boundary.
We will likely see a large spread in temperatures across the region
Thursday with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the
western Southern Tier to the low 50s across the Saint Lawrence
Valley to the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Surface low pressure
will reach Lake Erie by Thursday evening with increasing mid-level
convergence and strong warm air advection across the region. PWATS
increase to an inch across the region and rain showers will enter
western NY as early as 3PM Thursday. Rain showers will become
widespread by Thursday evening with periods of moderate showers
along and north of the frontal boundary Thursday night. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms across southwest NY, mainly the
western Southern Tier Thursday night. This region is on the fringe
of weak elevated instability with better conditions for
thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley. Forecast rainfall amounts will
average 0.25-0.50 inches with less than 0.25 inches across the
Finger Lakes region. Higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

Owed to the track of the surface low over the forecast area, low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 30s across
portions of the North Country to near 50 close to the NY/PA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft Friday will give way to a subtle shortwave
Friday night before the next quick paced shortwave dives
southeast across the Great Lakes Saturday. Meanwhile down at the
surface, a surface low and trailing cold front will be in the
midst of exiting east into New England Friday morning, which
will support the lingering rain showers to exit from west to
east.

Brief upper level ridging Friday night through Saturday ahead of the
next fast moving shortwave trough, will support a surface ridge to
slide across New York State and result in a period of dry weather
late Friday night through Saturday.

Temperatures to close out the week and start of the weekend will be
cooler than earlier in the week, though remain slightly above
normal. Highs Friday and Saturday will range in the upper 40s to low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A significant pattern shift to much more winter-like conditions will
take place during this period as a deep upper level trough becomes
established across the eastern third of the CONUS.

As we open the period, a vigorous Clipper system will be diving east-
southeast through northwestern Ontario, then slows down as it turns
more easterly while moving south of James Bay, eventually locating
itself over south-central Quebec by late Sunday. An initial cold
front trailing the system will push east across the area Saturday
night bringing a round of mainly rain showers to the region, with
some wet snow flakes possibly mixing in across the higher terrain
depending on how fast the colder air moves in. Wraparound moisture
will linger through the day Sunday with precipitation mainly in the
form of plain rain showers across the area, most numerous across
upslope areas. Some wet flakes will continue to be possible across
higher terrain, although near-surface temps will be marginal even
over the higher elevations. Daytime highs Sunday will be mainly 40s,
with some upper 30s across the higher terrain.

Synoptic moisture remains in place Sunday night as airmass off
the deck continues to slowly cool, with 850Ts getting down
around -8C to -10C late. This will allow for scattered lake
enhanced and eventually westerly flow lake effect snow showers
to develop east of the Lakes. A secondary cold front will move
across the area on Monday bringing the likelihood for a period
widespread snow showers for most areas. Winds veer WNW/NW behind
the boundary with widespread snow shower activity tapering off
to more upslope/lake effect dominant for Monday night into
Tuesday as 850Ts bottom out around -12C. Some accumulating
upslope/lake effect snows will be possible during this
timeframe, although mid March sun angle will at least somewhat
disrupt lake effect and hinder accumulations during the daylight
hours. Ground temps will take a bit to cool down as well.
Temperatures will be running some 5-10 degrees below average (15
deg below in some cases), with daytime highs possibly not
reaching the freezing mark across the higher terrain Monday and
Tuesday.

High pressure will then try to ridge in across the area toward mid
week. Drier air and subsidence associated with this feature will
help taper off the more persistent lake effect/upslope snows,
however it will remain cold enough aloft that a few lingering lake
effect snow showers will remain possible, especially downwind of the
Lake Ontario. Daytime highs will remain below average through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few pockets of HZ or FG will be possible near the lakes overnight
which may bring some brief impacts to TAF sites (KIAG).

Otherwise...VFR will dominate a significant portion of this TAF
cycle. That said...low pressure will track east along a east to west
oriented frontal boundary across the eastern Great Lakes today. This
will bring deteriorating conditions by late this afternoon and then
into this evening. CIGS will lower from VFR to MVFR-IFR with
increasing chances for showers, and we even could see a thunderstorm
as this system nears the region.

Tonight...the aforementioned low pressure will track east along the
frontal boundary bringing widespread IFR CIGS and lower VSBYS to TAF
sites.


Outlook...
Friday...IFR/MVFR to VFR. A chance of showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front will remain south of New York State through
tonight with winds gradually subsiding in its wake. A small chop on
the eastern shorelines is possible through early tonight though
otherwise minimal wave action is expected through Thursday morning.

The stationary front will move north and stall near Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario Thursday. Low pressure will track along the front
bringing widespread rain and an increase in winds on the waters.
There is a chance small craft advisory levels may be reached
Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK/PP
NEAR TERM...HSK/PP
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR


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