Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
527 FXUS63 KIWX 101919 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 319 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms tonight along a cold front. Small hail is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected. - Breezy and cool Saturday. - Beautiful weather Sunday followed by wet weather starting Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A compact upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery over the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of midday. At the surface, a cold front extends southeast through Minnesota. A very dry air mass is noted in the upper Midwest; dew points in the 30s. Meanwhile, dew points near 45F here are only a modest improvement. Water vapor shows little to no moisture advection into this feature, which, paired with the low dew points, validate the poor radar returns along the cold front. Model guidance suggests the surface low will deepen over the next 24 hours (aided by a strengthening 70 knot jet at 500-mb), resulting in improved shower coverage along the front tonight, though moisture advection remains poor. MUCAPE near 500 j/kg and mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km favor a chance of thunder. Otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a well- capped environment diminishing the overall severe weather risk. However, small hail is plausible with the freezing level just beyond 5,500 ft. Showers and storms will enter northwest Indiana near 1am EDT and depart northwest Ohio near 9am EDT. Total rainfall will be less then 0.25". Breezy and cool on Saturday, with gusty northwest west wind flowing into the deepening surface low now to our east. Wind gusts diminish near sunset Saturday, followed by beautiful weather for Mother`s Day. Warm air advection resumes and heights rising aloft will help our afternoon highs reach the low-70s. This warmth prevails into Monday but with a chance of rain by the afternoon. Rain chances then persist through Wednesday as our area becomes a transition zone between a departing low over James Bay and a developing low over Missouri. Forecast rainfall varies notably among model guidance at this juncture. Beyond Wednesday, some dry time Thursday is followed by more rain into Friday and next Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Primarily VFR this period ahead of sys dropping out of the upper midwest. Cold front will support a narrow band of light rain overnight but of limited duration as sys aloft is quite progressive. Otherwise brief/transient post frontal stratocu may develop toward daybreak however model implied signal is muted w/fairly robust mixing in shallow cold advection wing. This will yield a quick jump in w-nwrly gusts to 25kts at times by mid morning. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...T