Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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933 FXUS63 KIWX 140823 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 423 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and scattered storms at times will persist through the weekend and into early next week. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible, but widespread flooding and severe storms are not expected. - Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80 Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear will remain low and should not be enough to support severe storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in the series of upper level system will bring an additional round of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Mid-level troughing continues to allow for scattered showers however seems to be a very pronounced line over the western CWA border where to the east of the line stays relatively precipitation free and to the west showers continue to re- develop. This has made the forecast a bit more complicated because the lower levels are fairly moist and would not take much for the showers to spread eastward. At this time have opted to keep KSBN dry until after 12z and KFWA dry until after 17z Tue. After these times MVFR conditions with light rain slightly lowering vsbys/cigs. Have kept thunder out of the forecast for now as confidence is not high. But an isolated thunderstorm or two would not be a complete surprise. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Andersen