407
FXUS62 KMFL 071644
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1244 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge will extend through the Gulf of
Mexico and build towards South Florida as a mid level trough departs
further into the western Atlantic for the rest of today and into
Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic
will slowly continue to shift southeastward during this time frame.
The positioning of the surface high will promote southeasterly wind
flow through Wednesday. With just enough lower level moisture in
place, the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will provide enough lift to
support isolated shower and thunderstorm development where they
interact with each other over interior Southwest Florida this
afternoon into the early evening. With substantial dry air aloft,
chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain very low.
However, heavy downpours cannot be ruled out with any storm that
does develop. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually
diminish later this evening due to loss of diurnal heating. Low
temperatures tonight will generally range from around 70 around the
Lake Okeechobee region to the mid 70s across the east coast metro
areas.

On Wednesday, as mid level ridging continues to build over the
region, some drier air will work its way down into the lower levels.
This will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms very limited and
many areas will remain dry throughout the day. With the ridge
building, a warming trend will begin to take place as high
temperatures soar into the upper 80s across the east coast metro
areas to the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The Atlantic ridge will shift south as a frontal boundary associated
with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will
lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid
to late week period. This will enable a warming trend over several
days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled
areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could
see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday
and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection
cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require
monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering
the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, RHs across
interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20% range on Thursday
and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the
southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear
South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and
thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over
south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly
with the additional cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeasterly winds around 10 kts this afternoon will gradually
become light and variable as the evening progresses. Isolated
showers and storms will develop over interior SW Florida this
afternoon, however, the convection will stay away from the
terminals. At KAPF, winds will become SW this afternoon as a Gulf
breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will continue through
the middle of the week across most of the local waters. The
exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds may shift
to the southwest in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Winds
will gradually become south to southwesterly across all local waters
heading towards the end of the week as a frontal boundary approaches
from the north. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3
feet or less through the middle of the week while seas across the
Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The rip current risk will remain elevated throughout the rest of the
week across the Atlantic Coast beaches with the highest chances of
rip currents remaining over the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  89  76  88 /  10   0   0  10
West Kendall     74  90  73  90 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        75  89  75  91 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        74  88  75  88 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  87  76  88 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  75  87  75  88 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   75  88  76  92 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  72  89  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       75  87  74  90 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           75  91  74  90 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC