017
FXUS62 KMFL 131335 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches...
...Hot Conditions Interior Areas This Afternoon...
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Northern Interior/Northeast Areas
Late This Afternoon/ Early This Evening...

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper level ridge will continue to work into South Florida from
the Florida Keys today, as a MCS moves eastward from the Southern
Gulf coast states into Southeastern United States. This will allow
for the steering flow to be south southeast today over South
Florida pushing sea breezes into the interior areas.

At the same time, the latest forecast soundings is showing an cap
developing around then 725 to 750 mbs. This cap will limit the
development on showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but can
not rule out some showers and a few thunderstorms over the
interior areas late this afternoon where the sea breezes collide.
The showers and thunderstorms should then move more north to
northeast through the evening hours into the northern metro areas
of Palm Beach County while slowly dissipating.

A few of the storms could become strong late this afternoon into
early this evening due to the cooler air aloft. The strongest
storms could be capable of producing gusty winds, hail, and
lightning strikes.

Highs have been raised a little bit today over the interior areas
due to the developing cap leading to more sunshine over this
area. Therefore, highs over the interior areas will be in the mid
to upper 90s this afternoon leading to heat indices of 105 to 108
degrees over these areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good for today and no other changes
are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The diffuse surface boundary that has lingered will give way to a
small area of high pressure building off the Florida coast over the
Atlantic. This surface high pressure will give way to the next
disturbance moving along northern Gulf coast comes into phase with a
mid-level low over the central plains heading into Tuesday.

South Florida will sit south of the larger scale support for
convection though pooling moisture across the region will lead to
building humidity and the stifling sunshine in the afternoons could
see heat index values climb into the triple digits. Sea breeze
development is anticipated each afternoon with the potential for
some showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland around boundary
collisions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to
late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of
Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could
enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front
lacks the support for more vigorous activity which could provide
more substantial relief from the heat.

A window for hazardous heat will open Wednesday that could linger
into the weekend. Much of southern Florida could experience heat
necessitating at least a Heat Advisory. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Winds will be easterly around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
over most of the TAF sites. The only exception is at KAPF taf site
where it will become westerly between 18Z and 00Z due to the west
coast sea breeze. Weather will remain dry over most of the TAF
sites, except for VCSH at KFLL and KFXE taf sites along with VCTS
at KPBI taf site between 21 and 00Z. Vis and ceiling in VFR
conditions today outside of any showers or storms dropping down
to possible IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Tightening pressure gradient tonight into Tuesday will result in
hazardous SE winds across the Atlantic waters, with cautionary
winds for the rest of the South FL waters. Seas building in the
Atlantic to 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms
possible each day this week which may result in locally hazardous
winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic beaches
through Tuesday due to onshore easterly flow. The risk lessens mid
to end of the week as the flow becomes more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  90  80 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     92  77  92  78 /  10  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        90  79  92  79 /  20  10  20   0
Homestead        89  79  90  79 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  89  80 /  20  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   90  79  93  80 /  20  10  20   0
West Palm Beach  89  77  92  77 /  30  30  30  10
Boca Raton       88  79  91  79 /  20  20  30  10
Naples           92  78  92  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...BNB