Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 261946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...

A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.

RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.

OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT-SUN...VFR.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.