Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 212315
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
715 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Rain continues to affect the forecast area tonight through much of
Saturday as a slow moving low pressure system moves through. The
system will finally depart by Sunday with cool and gusty
conditions in its wake.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure currently over eastern PA with strong upper trough
progressing into eastern CONUS. North of the low, front currently
over NE PA extending into our eastern NY zones. At this time, band
of deformation zone rain located over western NY with a line of
showers, locally heavy, moving east across NE PA extending into
central southern tier. Fortunately, this is pushing east of the
areas in Bradford County that received the flooding so we are
going to let the flash flood watch expire at 4 pm. However still
do have some concerns of local urban and small stream issues over
NE PA into the southern tier with the line of showers discussed
above. Meanwhile, eastern zones through the Poconos and Catskills
continue to remain dry and quite warm on the eastern side of the
front but this will change through this evening...
Heading into this evening, surface low re-organizes over New
England as deep upper trough swings east and begins to close off
aloft. Gusty N/NW winds and deformation zone rain sets up over
the forecast area on the western side of this system with precip
finally making it into eastern zones. The good news is that precip
rates will not be as intense since it won`t be convective and thus
max amounts will be limited to a quarter to half inch in six
hours. Additional flash flooding not expected however there could
still continue be some urban and small stream issues for low lying
areas as well issues to to leaf clogged drains...this will be
especially for areas that have already seen very heavy amounts.
The other main story will be increasingly strong/gusty NW winds
and falling temperatures on the back side of this deepening
system. By morning, lows will be mostly in the upper 30s to low
Forecast models continue to trend slower with the departure of
this system since low will be closing off aloft. As a result,
Saturday generally looking to be a cold, wet, raw day. Rain and
showers, generally light to occasionally moderate will affect
most of the area through much of the day with some improvement by
afternoon over western/southern areas across the western southern
tier into NE PA. Also, winds will be strong and gusty...in fact
not too far from advisory criteria. Generally expect NW winds
15-25 gusting 30 up to 40 mph. Temps won`t budge too much and
remain in the 40s. In fact, by late day some snow may mix in over
the higher terrain of the Catskills. Expect additional rain
amounts for tonight through Saturday to generally be a half inch
to an inch with a few higher amounts up to an inch and a quarter
possible over the Catskills north the southern Tug Hill.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 pm update...We`ll still be dealing with the slow moving upper
low Sat. night into Sun., as it lifts into New England. Wrap-
around moisture and deformation zone lift will produce a more
persistent area of light precipitation across our eastern zones
Sat. night. Since boundary layer temperatures will drop into the
low-mid 30s this area, we`re still expecting wet snow to mix in,
and some of the higher terrain in the Catskills could see small
accumulations. Elsewhere, light rain/snow showers will be much
more spotty in nature, and confined mostly to areas of Central NY
downwind from Lake Ontario.
Sun., other than some lingering rain/snow showers in NY early on,
we should trend drier, as the upper low lifts further away, and
heights rise aloft. A fast moving short-wave in the northern
stream is still progged to sweep through the area late Sun. night
into Mon., with a few light rain/snow showers. Since this system
looks moisture starved overall, we kept POP`s in the slight
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mon. night-Tue., we should reside in a chilly, cyclonic northwest flow pattern,
which will likely mean a fair amount of clouds, and again some light
Wed. still looks dry from this vantage point, with short-wave ridging aloft,
and a surface high sliding across the region.
By Thu., as the next front approaches from the west, we`ve
introduced a chance for showers. By then, warm air advection
should bring slightly milder temperatures (highs into the 50s most
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wet weather with restrictions continue tonight and through most
of the day Saturday with gusty N/NW winds. Tonight most sites will
see ceilings range from fuel alternate to IFR with -SHRA and light
fog dropping vsbys to IFR/MVFR. KITH, KBGM and KELM will likely
see ceilings drop to or below alternate minimums.
Showers and gusty NW winds continue Saturday on the backside of
the system with most sites seeing little improvement and
remaining at MVFR/IFR.
N/NW winds will remain 10 to 15 kt tonight and increase to 20 to
30 kt Saturday on the backside of deepening departing system.
Saturday night - Sunday...Improving to mainly VFR.
Sunday night - Monday...Restrictions possible as weak system
Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR.