Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TODAY...THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0700 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING TEMPS, DEW POINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


215 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THINGS APPEARS OPTIMAL FOR HARNESSING DIURNAL
HEATING...WITH HIGHS TODAY WELL INTO THE 80S /INCLUDING UPPER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA/.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT ENCROACHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW...A WELL MARKED LOBE OF
VORTICITY WILL SWING ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...UPPER JET SUPPORT...AND DEEP LAYER WSW WINDS ALOFT.

MODEL TREND IS FOR THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES TO BE SKEWED MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...FOR EXAMPLE THE KSYR
SOUNDING SHOWING 40-50 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER THIS AFTERNOON /MORE
LIKE 30-40 KTS TOWARDS KAVP/. REGARDLESS...ENOUGH COMBINATION OF
FACTORS FOR THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN AREAWIDE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IF THE GUSTY WINDS
THREAT MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS CENTRAL NY VERSUS
NORTHEAST PA. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING INTO THE MID LEVELS
WILL PROMOTE COLD POOLS ADVANCING AHEAD OF STORMS AND THUS GUSTY
WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL DIRECTLY UNDER
CELLS.

FORECAST ADJUSTED TO NARROW DOWN TIMING OF STORMS. ROUGHLY
SPEAKING THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS RANGE FROM 1-5PM IN THE FINGER
LAKES-SYRACUSE AREAS...MORE LIKE 3-7PM IN UTICA-TWIN TIERS-
WESTERN CATSKILLS AREAS...AND 5-10PM WYOMING VALLEY PA-SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY.

THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING AS A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS-
EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER TO A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS HAZLETON PA TO MONTICELLO NY...OTHERWISE THINGS
WILL QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL ADVECTION OF DRIER AND
COOLER AIR SETTING IN. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND ALSO COMBINES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL NY. NAM ACTUALLY INDICATES ML CAPES REACHING
1000-1500 J/KG BUT IS THE OUTLIER AS GFS SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING FOR
CAPE WITH SREF ONLY SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. ALSO, L57 LAPSE
RATES NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE...LESS THAN 6.0 C/KM. THE UPSHOT
IS THAT WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS UNLIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST
OVER NE PA.

SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER NE PA AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER HEADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY DUE TO UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO OVER ONEIDA INTO NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES BUT THAT WOULD
BE ABOUT IT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S OVER CENTRAL NY AND A LITTLE WARMER
OVER NE PA. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE AS
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WHILE GEM GLOBAL HAS COME
FARTHER NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ECMWF.


300 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS INDICATING A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
A SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN BRINGING SOME RAIN AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY LATE THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF RESTRICTIONS...SWEEPING ROUGHLY
WNW TO ESE. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE 4 HR TEMPO CB
GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT KAVP. FOR
KAVP...HAVE ELECTED FOR PROB30 CB GROUP UNTIL WE CAN GAIN BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. WINDS TODAY BECOMING GENERALLY SW 10-12 KTS
WITH GUSTS IN MID-UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG GUSTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON- EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP


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