Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 200156
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
856 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Over the weekend, temperatures will be milder than recent days.
Watching for patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle Saturday night.
Through Sunday, any precipitation will be spotty and light.
Rain will become more likely Monday into Tuesday, as a low
pressure system moves through the region. Behind the system,
cooler air will return midweek along with scattered snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

845 PM Update...
A quiet night, with just some scattered to broken high clouds
moving across the area. Southwest winds will be breezy over the
higher elevations overnight, between 10-20 mph, with localized
higher gusts possible. Winds will remain relatively light in the
valleys, mainly less than 10 mph tonight. With the high clouds
and breezy winds, overnight lows are not forecast to drop very
much from current temperatures...with most locations holding
between 20 to 30 degrees. Saturday will be mild, with increasing
low level clouds...especially across north-central NY. Patchy
drizzle may develop in the afternoon across Onondaga and Oneida
Counties. High temperatures will reach the mid-30s to lower 40s
in CNY, with 40 to 45 degrees in NE PA. The low level inversion
continues to strengthen Saturday night, with plenty of moisture
trapped below 3-5K FT AGL. This will bring overcast skies, with
patchy areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle and perhaps a few ice
pellets. Precipitation amounts will be very light, a few
hundredths or less....but with surface temperatures falling
between 25-32 later Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
there will be the potential for some slick spots on untreated
surfaces....especially in the higher elevations.

Previous Discussion

245 PM Update...
Very slight ridge is bumping into our region aloft, with a
west-southwest flow at the surface. This will keep things rather
quiet tonight through Saturday morning.

A fair amount of sunshine this afternoon, especially south of
the NY Thruway, will lead into a mostly clear evening with
initial radiational cooling. However, high clouds will stream
overhead during the night, which along with warm air advection
will hold temperatures from dropping much beyond evening
readings of mid 20s-lower 30s.

A weak shallow wave will pass through around midday Saturday.
This will veer low level flow to westerly, allowing return of
stratocumulus later in the day and especially Saturday night.
Highs of upper 30s-mid 40s Saturday, will be followed by lows of
mid 20s-near 30 Saturday night, as abundant low level moisture
remains trapped under subsidence inversion of passing surface
ridge. Moisture will be shallow across the area in general, but
it may get just thick enough to generate very light snowflakes
or drizzle by Saturday night in the Boonville-Rome-Syracuse-
Norwich-Utica areas. In model soundings, the top of the
saturated layer appears to only get to about 8 below zero
Celsius which may make it a challenge to get any crystals in the
cloud layer. Thus, as surface temperatures drop slightly below
freezing Saturday night, freezing drizzle will be possible in
those areas. That will be a continued theme later in the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bit of a mess as low level cold air and deep moisture trapped
under and inversion results in socked in clouds and a chance for
drizzle and freezing drizzle. Cold air remain locked in the
usual places Sunday, generally along and east of the I81
corridor and with limited solar radiation and a light surface
flow becoming easterly later Sunday. No lift into the dendrite
zone should eliminate the chance for any snow. Temps rise
enough Sunday afternoon to stop the freezing rain threat, then
drop again Sunday night as a surface high strengthens over New
England and we lose any heating. Chance for rain increases Early
Monday as warm advection rains develop ahead of an approaching
plains low. This return the chance for freezing precipitation,
but somewhat heavier, again over the eastern zones. Temperatures
rise during the daylight hours on Monday bringing just rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain continues into the long term as a big low pushes into the
central Great Lakes. Temps will rise onto early Tuesday, and
begin to fall later in the day and beginning the changeover to
snow from west to east later in the day.

Behind the low, a prolonged northwest flow of seasonably cold
air will linger lake effect snow showers into Thursday. Air is
not exceptionally cold, and flow does not seem favorable for a
biog snow event, but the best chance of accumulating will be as
usual, in the SYR area and into parts of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z Update...Sct to bkn high clouds (15-25k ft agl) will
continue to move through the area tonight. Main concern will be
for increasing low level wind shear developing at most terminals
later this evening and continuing overnight. West winds around
020 ft agl will be between 45-55 kts...with generally southwest
winds less than 10 kts at the surface. The lower levels of the
atmosphere begin to moisten up, from north to south across the
area, starting Saturday morning. KSYR and KRME will begin to see
bkn clouds develop between 025-040 ft agl after about 20/13-15z.
The low level inversion strengths as winds turn WNW through the
day on Saturday. The low level wind shear should diminish at
most locations by 20/15z. With the strengthening inversion and
increasing moisture, low clouds will develop from north to south
over the forecast area starting early afternoon at KSYR and
KRME, then pushing into the southern tier and NE PA toward
sunset Saturday. Did bring in some fuel alternate MVFR CIGS to
KRME and KSYR after about 20/20z....with some bkn MVFR cigs
possible toward KITH, KBGM and possibly KELM after 20/21-23z.
KAVP is expected to remain VFR through this taf period, but some
sct lower clouds around 020 ft agl may develop around sunset.
These are expected to lower and thicken, becoming an MVFR or
lower CIG at KAVP later Saturday evening or night.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday morning...MVFR or IFR
restrictions likely, with low CIGS, drizzle or areas of freezing
drizzle possible.

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Restrictions become likely
due to increasing clouds, and chance of very light mix or drizzle.

Monday through Tuesday...Periods of light rain and restrictions.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Chance of snow showers and
restrictions; best chance KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MJM/MDP



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