Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 282341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE...HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY THIS EVENING AS WE ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO BE POSITIONED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR
LVL TROUGH. DEW POINTS OVER FAR WESTERN NY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S AND EXPECT THE DEW POINTS OVER OUR CWA TO FALL INTO THIS RANGE
AS WELL. AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EXPECT
WHAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING TO DISSIPATE. AND EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME LESS AND LESS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE CHILLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPR 40S. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT VALLEY FOG
MAY DEVELOP... AND IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE SKY BECOMES CLEAR FOR A
FEW HOURS OR MORE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM MON UPDATE... THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TUE-THU) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...JUST AHD OF A LINGERING
UPR-LVL TROUGH AXIS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY RGNS.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOWLY BLDG
EWD FROM THE UPR LAKES RGN AND SWRN ONT.

IN GENERAL...THIS MEANS DRY WX MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND WIDELY SEPARATED SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ARND...MOSTLY
WED AND THU...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO NY/PA.

ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF JULY (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S)...THEY SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TWDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE SCALE TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER EASTERN CONUS THIS PERIOD,
WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE. THE PATTERN`S
AMPLITUDE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH THIS PATTERN, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS AND POP
SMOOTHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PULLING INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING THE
SHOWERS TO AN END BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT SYR AND RME
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LEAVING VFR IN ITS WAKE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, IFR EXPECTED ACROSS ITH AND ELM THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER THIS TIME, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. AT BGM AND AVP, EXPECT JUST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.

AFTER 15Z TUESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FROM 5-10KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN







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