Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
PA/SOUTHERN NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THAT WILL BE THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT DISTANT SYSTEM FOR OUR REGION...WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING THESE
PREDAWN HOURS IN NEPA...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IS MORE COMMON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COLDEST READINGS IN
ELMIRA AT 26 DEGREES AND NORWICH AT 27 DEGREES.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE...
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP






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