Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...PLEASANTLY WARM...IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR EVENING FIREWORKS
CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST...FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND NOW JUST SOME HI CLDS OR
SMOKE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS
ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE


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