Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222149
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
549 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area
Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions
for much of the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the eastern U.S. ridge finally breaks down, a complex system
over the midwest will push a strong cold front toward the area.
The system represents the opening event in an developing
pattern change that will eventually result in a large trough
over the eastern part of the country. It will be a messy
transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple waves
rotate around the trough as it settles in. For the near term, a
strong short wave developing over the Tennessee valley deepens
as it lifts north in the central lakes, briefly delaying the
approaching front. This should delay the arrival of the showers
in the western zones until late Monday evening, with the front
passing the central sections and east toward 12Z Tuesday,

Ahead of the front, marine layer is pulled in from the southeast
stabilizing the low levels, and perhaps bringing a bit of
drizzle. It will also protect much of the area from stronger
winds zipping along above the boundary layer. Best chance for
seeing the gusts will be with any weak convection that develops
immediately along the front. There is some instability aloft,
but convection would be mostly triggered by the strong dynamics
of the system.
&&


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 pm update...

This will be the most active period of the week as a strong
cold front moves through the CWA followed by an upper level
trough. Model trends from yesterday; front moves into the west
earlier but has slowed down the exit as the trough goes negative
tilted. Heavy rain axis has shifted back into the far southeast
which includes Sullivan County NY and Pike County PA. Rainfall
amounts around 2 inches but amounts taper off quickly to the
west. An inch in Scranton and less for Elmira, Binghamton,
Syracuse. Pwats up to 1.5 inches with the strong and deep south
flow of tropical moisture ahead of the front and trough.
Training of showers and possible thunderstorms is possible in
the far southeast as the front slows with the short wave outruns
it. This and some orographics into the southern Catskills and
Poconos could drop higher rainfall amounts. Some flash flood
potential but need 2 or more inches in an hour and 3 or more
inches in 3 hours. High temps not much above the high dewpoints
and only 65 to 70.

Wind fields are strong at mid and upper levels. Instability
weak with maybe a hundred cape in all but far east where it
could be slightly higher. Thunderstorms possible right with
front and a line of showers with heavy rain. Thunderstorms could
mix down some stronger winds during the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the front slowed in the
far east, a surface low moves NNE along the front bringing a
batch of heavy rain. Models have moved the heavy rain back to
the west to the edge of our CWA. Front clears our area around
00z but still in the Hudson Valley Wednesday morning so heavier
rain will not end in far east until late Tuesday night. Rest of
CWA will have only light scattered rain showers. Low
temperatures in the 40s behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 pm update...

More of an unsettled pattern than of late. The upper level
trough will keep some rain showers here into Thursday.
Temperatures slightly below normal.

High pressure builds in Friday from the southeast U.S.
Temperatures Friday into Saturday at or slightly above normal.

Beyond that some uncertainty on timing and strength of the next
cold front and upper level trough moving out of the plains. For
now looks like showers move in late Saturday with the slow
moving front and remain into Monday. Temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for the area this afternoon and evening.
Some marine moisture may slip into the area late tonight and
bring MVFR or IFR ceilings to AVP, and perhaps MVFR at BGM.
otherwise, southwest flow ahead of he approaching front should
keep the area well mixed and VFR through the end of the period.
Strong winds aloft late tonight could bring some LLWS at
stations with lighter southerly or southeasterly winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers.

Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM



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