Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
253 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy skies and and isolated shower will give way to
mostly clear skies tonight with light and variable winds.
Unsettled weather will prevail in the forecast Sunday through
Tuesday with cool temperatures. Dry weather is expected to
return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM EDT Update...
A diurnal cu field has developed across the region in the wake
of this mornings cold front. Cool air aloft, low-lvl moisture
and the summer`s sun will allow this deck to continue through
the afternoon. Around sunset the deck will start to dissipate
and mostly clear skies will prevail through much of the night.
Some thunderstorms have developed along the lake breeze in
western NY. Do not believe this activity will reach our area,
but it is possible we may see an isolated rain shower over
central NY. Sfc temps are currently in the mid/uppr 70s over
central NY and uppr 70s/low 80s over NEPA. Expect temps to rise
a few more degrees this afternoon, and fall into the low/mid 50s
tonight as 850MB temps fall a few degrees overnight.

Tonight the next mid-lvl shortwave trough approaches from the west
and the broad uppr lvl long-wave trough shifts towards the
northeast. This are our next features to generate showers and
thunderstorms over the region. These features will move many
embedded waves over the region, none of which particularly strong,
but enough dynamic lift aloft to possibly generate scattered
showers. Believe these showers will be mostly diurnally driven in
nature and the best chance for showers will be during peak heating.
Sunday afternoon temps will be slightly cooler than today, ranging
in the uppr 60s/low 70s over central NY and 70s over NEPA (uppr 70s
over far se NEPA).

Sunday night a secondary front will move across the region and 850MB
temps will fall to around 5 deg C. (which are quite impressive) This
amount of CAA will result in some minor lake enhanced rain showers
over the region, thus the chance for rain showers over central NY
will linger through the night. Temps Sun night will fall into the
low/mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues in the short term with a long wave
trof over the Great Lakes. Short waves rotating through the trof
along with surface trofs and fronts will increase the chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms both Monday and
Tuesday. There is also the chance of a shower even outside of
the peak heating hours. With the upper low in place,
temperatures will average below normal both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Perhaps a brief break in the showers Wednesday as the upper trof
lifts and some ridging as the surface builds in on Wednesday
into Thursday. Later Thursday a strong wave flattens the SE
ridge and drapes a surface front over the area. This will be the
focus of low level convergence and showers and thunderstorms.
Front moves little so do not expect much of a change into Friday
with continued showers and thunderstorms, especially in the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR diurnal cu field will be present this afternoon in the wake
of a cold front. These clouds will give way to mostly clear
skies overnight with light and variable winds. An isolated
shower is possible today at all sites excepts for KAVP, but no
restrictions are expected.

Another shortwave will move into the region tomorrow afternoon
and bring our next chance for precip to the area after 18Z.

Winds will be W/NW around 8 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots through 22Z, then become light and variable after sunset.
Winds are expected to become W around 6 to 12 knots after 14Z
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are possible
with occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR.

Friday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH


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