Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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096
FXUS61 KBGM 261921
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain-free weather will last through the day Thursday, along with
warm temperatures. In fact, afternoon highs Thursday, will be
in the seventies or lower eighties, for most areas. The passage
of a weak front, will bring scattered showers or thunderstorms
Thursday night, with conditions drying out again on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 pm update... GOES-16 satellite imagery has shown that the
stratus layer from this morning eroded over CNY/NEPA, with just a
diurnal cumulus field remaining.

Much of the forecast area should clear out this evening, before
a stratus deck perhaps re-emerges later tonight over the
Catskills and Pocono plateau. It remains questionable how far
inland these lower clouds will get into the early morning hours
Thursday, with the NAM/GFS models the most aggressive in this
regard, and the regional GEM and near-term high resolution
guidance more suppressed to the east. Given the good performance
of the latter model group today, we`ll lean in the direction of
the clouds being less extensive in our area, only primarily
affecting the higher terrain well to the east of Scranton,
Wilkes-Barre, and Binghamton.

Given above reasoning, radiational cooling with mostly clear
skies, and a resident higher dew point air mass, may combine to
bring patchy fog to some of our twin tier river valleys towards
daybreak.

For Thursday, it still appears that any convection ahead of a
slowly approaching cold front will hold off in our far western
zones until towards sunset, if not later. Thus, we restrict any
mention of this until generally after 5 pm.

Temperatures still look warm Thursday, with a S-SW flow
providing a well mixed low-level environment, especially west of
the Interstate 81 corridor. Highs should range from the mid
70s-lower 80s most areas, with a few mid 80s possible in our
Lake Ontario plain areas, and a few upper 60s-lower 70s possible
in the Catskills and Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Thursday Night, a frontal system and associated upper level
wave will push across NY and PA. The main forcing as per the
CMC, EURO, NAM and GFS suggests the highest chances for
precipitation will be across northern NY. There will be a
decent moisture feed into this system so hence have POPs all
areas for showers and some storms with the highest in our
northern counties. Then for Friday, a small area of high
pressure will build in with fair weather. There could be a few
early morning lingering showers in the Catskills and Poconos.

For Friday night, models begin to diverge a bit as the next
front approaches from the northwest. All main synoptic scale
models show an upper level ridge developing off the southeast
coast. Models differ on the timing of the next front and how
much moisture makes it around the periphery of this large upper
ridge. So have slight chance to chance POPs for showers.

Then on Saturday the front will waver over the area as per all
main synoptic models so have chance for showers and storms. By
Saturday night, activity will wane some as an upper level ridge
tries to build over the region. However, the CMC and EURO linger
some precipitation over the area. The GFS is dry. So opted for
a blend of the models and collaborated with neighboring offices
and have slight chance for showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Used superblend for this period.  All three synoptic models
show a major cyclone tracking northeast through the western
Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. A warm front will cross the
region Sunday with a sharp cold front crossing NY and PA Monday
and Monday night. Will keep chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday with mainly showers Sunday night.
Have likely POPS for Showers and thunderstorms on Monday into
Monday evening with the sharp cold front. Then behind this
system it gets chilly with lingering light rain showers Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief MVFR restrictions may continue this afternoon, with patchy
fair weather cumulus clouds developing. However, the majority of
the time, we should see VFR/unrestricted conditions through
about 06z tonight.

Late tonight into early Thursday, an area of stratus clouds
should expand westward through at least the Catskills and
Poconos. However, further inland extent remains uncertain at
this time. For now, we`ll advertise the onset of alternate
required/MVFR restrictions at 06z for KAVP, and 09z for KBGM.
We`ll keep unrestricted conditions going at KITH, KSYR, and
KRME for the time being. At KELM, patchy valley fog development
could be impactful, and bring at least brief IFR restrictions
around daybreak.

Any residual restrictions from earlier in the morning should be
in the process of going away by 14-15z, with a return of VFR
conditions for Thursday afternoon.

SE surface winds 5-8 kt can be expected at most terminal sites
through the overnight period (KELM will be lighter). Winds may
increase somewhat Thursday, with gusts around 20 kt possible at
KSYR, KRME, KITH, and KBGM.

Outlook...

Thursday night into early Friday...At least brief restrictions
possible in showers or thunderstorms.

Friday afternoon and Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Although VFR is likely the majority of
the time, rounds of showers or thunderstorms could bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ



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