Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211927
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
327 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tomorrow triggering
showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be very
strong and may contain damaging winds. Dry and clearing
conditions will return for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper wave may help trigger some isolated convection this
afternoon, especially over the central and southern zones.
Plenty of cape is available, but wind fields are weak and there
is no good surface trigger. Will keep slight to chance pops
thru the afternoon.

Tonight, plenty of debris clouds around so despite light winds
and low level moisture, fog should be more limited, if at all.

String cold front and upper wave approaches for Tuesday. Once
again, plenty of energy, with forecasted capes around and
possibly exceeding 1500 j/kg. Wind field is more impressive with
much higher shear numbers. So, severe thunderstorms are a
definite concern, with damaging winds the most likely
consequence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM EDT Update...
By Wed night, the upper-lvl trough will slowly swing across the
region and NW flow at mid-lvls will prevail in the wake of the
a secondary fropa. This NW flow will bring about a 10 degree
temp difference to the region on Wed and as the upper low will
be slow to pass, the chance for precip on Wed will prevail (lake
enhanced, however moisture will be somewhat limited)

NW flow at mid-lvls will continue through the night and CAA will
continue to funnel into the region. This will result in sfc temps
reaching the low 50s/upper 40s by sunrise on Thurs. Thursday
afternoon a more pronounced shortwave trough will dive across
the Great Lakes region and swing across PA/NY Thurs night. This
wave will create an environment conducive for showers to develop
during the day on Thursday. By 06Z Friday, the trough axis will
be east of the region and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will create
strong subsidence and end the chance for precip. The subsidence
will likely cause lingering cloud coverage at the end of the
day to dissipate and cause strong radiational cooling develop,
thus sfc temps are expected to fall into the upper 40s/low 50s
Thurs night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Minor changes were made from previous forecast...
Anti-cyclonic flow over the northeast combined with amplified
ridging over the western CONUS will result in quiet weather for
the extended forecast. High pressure is expected to prevail over
the region Friday and possibly linger through the weekend which
will result in below seasonal temperatures. This pattern may
prevail through the start of early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated showers and storms may pop up this afternoon,
especially across the southern tier and NEPA, but coverage
should not be enough for inclusion in the TAFs. Tonight, spotty
fog is possible but with increasing high clouds, it will not be
as extensive as previous nights. Brief IFR and spotty MVFR is
possible. On Tuesday, a strong cold front will approach
developing thunderstorms. Timing may bring them in the north and
west sites before then of the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday/Thursday/Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/RRM


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