Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230222
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1022 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. CLEARING HAPPENING IN
THE WEST SUCH AS TOWANDA AND ELMIRA. TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE
DROPPED QUICKLY WHILE UNDER THE CLOUDS IT IS DROPPING A DEGREE AN
HOUR. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. STILL THINKING FOG WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION.

7 PM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO UP CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THIS EVE. LATE
TONIGHT GRIDS LOOK GOOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE L40S.

AT 4 PM... SATELLITE SHOWED STRATO CUMULUS OVER THE AREA UNDER
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE
DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT T85 WARMS SLIGHTLY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATER TONIGHT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. EVENING CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF. SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL MODIFY NICELY INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS T925 REACHES 11/13C.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE NEAR 590 DM LOCALLY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ATTM THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AREA TO REMAIN PRECIP
FREE BUT THE FAR SE FA COULD SEE MORE CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXES ON WED/THU WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE NORTHEAST U.S FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RUNNING INTO THE UPR
AIR RDG BY SUNDAY BUT THE AMS WILL BE VERY DRY WITH THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OFF SHORE. THUS THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD SHUD BE
RAIN-FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WELL IN WAKE OF FRONT EXITING OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST...AND AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING LOW END VFR DECK OF CLOUDS. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...KSYR-KRME-KITH AND TO LESSER DEGREE KBGM
CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST AWHILE UNDERNEATH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE INVERSION WILL DIP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CIG AT THOSE TERMINALS...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
TIMING SPECIFICS. THAT BEING SAID...BESIDES THE MOISTURE COMING
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WITHOUT HELP OF LAKES...KELM-KAVP AND
EVENTUALLY KBGM WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.
SMALL CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG KELM...BUT DOUBTFUL DUE TO AMOUNT OF
WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND THUS NOT IN TAF. REMAINDER OF TERMINALS WILL
JOIN THE OTHERS AT VFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN AS DRY AIR
MIXES BETTER. FEW-SCT CUMULUS 3500-4500 FT DURING THE DAY FOR THE
TERMINALS...PERHAPS MORE BKN TOWARDS KSYR-KRME. WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST 5-9 KTS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RELATED TO
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MDP





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