Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 050626
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORMS DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE JUST OFF TO THE EAST IS
DOMINATING THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE E/SE HAS HELPED
TO BRING IN SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TO NE PA NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. ALSO SOME AREAS OF MIST AND FOG AROUND
HOWEVER THIS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AND WIDESPREAD THIS
MORNING AS COMPARED TO RECENT MORNINGS.

FOR THE DAY SATURDAY, STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL BURN OFF BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING YIELDING TO A SPLENDID AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS RESULTING IN A MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER WITH SHALLOWER MOISTURE
LAYER SO SET UP LOOKS GOOD FOR VALLEY FOG WITH PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT
A LITTLE COOLER IN THE CATSKILLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS BEING THE MAIN STORY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE S/E ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO TURN UP THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY AGAIN.

LOOKING AT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 80S...WARMEST OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WHERE TEMPS
REACH MID TO UPPER 80S. ONLY CONCERN THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
IS POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NY LATE DAY
THAT COULD CLIP AREAS AROUND STEUBEN/YATES COUNTY WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS. OTHERWISE, AREA REMAINS PRECIP FREE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ALMOST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE.
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED
BY EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. 850 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH
17-18C RANGE SO LOOKING AT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 90 IN SPOTS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT A FEW STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER WESTERN NY AROUND
WESTERN PERIFORY OF RIDGE AND POSSIBLY AFFECT WESTERN ZONES
(STEUBEN COUNTY INTO WESTERN FINGER LAKES) LATE DAY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS. DRY ELSEWHERE AND EVEN THESE AREAS WILL BE DRY THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY EVEN IF A FEW STORMS OCCUR. &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FLATTEN AS WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA. THE INITIAL SFC TROF
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT
BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
WED THROUGH THURSDAY. TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NRN TIER OF PA AS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
ATTM WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA.

TEMPS WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WED THEN DROP
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT OVER NE PA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NY. THIS FLOW MAY RESULT IN A LOW AND MID LVL STRATUS
DECK FORMING OVER THE REGION. ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT DENSE
FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AT LEAST MVFR EXCEPT FOR KSYR AND KRME... THESE SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES REGION WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH



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