Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301755
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING
AT BGM/AVP DUE TO STRATUS...AND VFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCT MID CLD.
THINK BGM COULD BREAK OUT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN TO VFR AS IT`S ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER CLDS...CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF VFR AT
AVP IF DECK LIFTS A BIT THIS AFTN BUT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THERE.
LATER THIS EVNG...STRATUS DECK IS XPCTD TO NWD INTO CNTRL NY
(ITH/ELM/BGM) IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND PSBLY INTO RME. ATTM
THINK VFR WILL CONTINUE AT SYR TIL VRY LATE TNGT. XPCT AN AREA OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO BE WORKING NEWD INTO CNTRL NY BY DAYBREAK
WITH WDPSRD IFR/MVFR ACRS CNTRL NY. MVFR CIGS AT AVP BUT MAIN
BATCH OF PCPN SHUD REMAIN NW OF THEM THRU 18Z SUNDAY...SO TEMPOS
FOR -SHRA THERE. WINDS THIS AFTN SRLY 10-15 KTS...DCRSNG TO 5-10
KTS THIS EVNG...BECMG SWLY ON SUNDAY 5-10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MVFR AND PATCHY IFR DUE TO CIGS.

MON/MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP



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