Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 020815
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SOLID LOW OVERCAST...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE...HAVE BEEN THE THEMES
OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO
YIELDED AREAS OF FOG IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS. QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY CAN BE FOUND IN HAZLETON AS
WELL AS MOUNT POCONO. ACTUAL RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO FIND...BUT THAT
WILL SOON CHANGE.

SURFACE TROUGH...STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF
JET ALOFT ARE ALL COMBINING THIS MORNING TO BRING A QUICK BATCH
OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE REGION...THOUGH LINGERING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO GO SLIGHTLY SUBZERO THIS MORNING...MAINLY
CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO FINGER LAKES AREAS. AS THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM
HAS INDEED YIELDED OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDER...I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN CENTRAL TWIN TIERS-FINGER LAKES. A
FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HEAVIEST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD
APPROACH A HALF INCH. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY
BACK SOME SHOWERS INTO THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SMALLER CHANCES FURTHER NORTHWEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA...AND PROBABLY NONE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
MULTIPLE WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE
AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...PARTICULARLY
FINGER LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY WHICH WILL PROBABLY GET NOTHING AT
ALL. HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS OF
MAINLY MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
PRODUCES A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH THEN
APPROACHES OUR REGION. THOUGH NOT MUCH OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE DAMP CLOUDY COOL AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNC WITH RECENT RUNS.
BIG PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THINGS CONTINUE
TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN WE WERE SEEING 24-48 HOURS
AGO, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE REASONING, CLOUDY, COOL, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER MAY ONLY REALLY AFFECT NY AND PA THU.-FRI., WITH FRI.
PERHAPS EVEN SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER IN THE DAY. SAT.
NOW LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S). A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON SUN., WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK (DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF
PERIOD, OWING TO LOWER CEILINGS, AND A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KRME, KITH, AND KBGM, EITHER IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON (20-22Z). FOR KELM AND KSYR, IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE CENTERED AROUND THE PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
(ROUGHLY 10-18Z), WITH GENERALLY MVFR OTHERWISE. AT KAVP,
PRIMARILY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR BELOW
ALTERNATE MIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE MIN RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON
THE LONGEST AT KITH (PERHAPS TIL TOWARDS 00Z TUE), WHERE NW FLOW
IN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TENDS TO PRODUCE LOWER
CONDITIONS.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY WILL BE E 5-8 KT AT KRME EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (GENERALLY 5
KT OR LESS) THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING (ABOUT 20-21Z ONWARD), WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW
AT 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...IMPROVING TO VFR.

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ



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