Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 272353
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
653 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016
See aviation below for 00Z TAF update.
VFR prevails across South Texas. Overnight light patchy fog is
expect to develop across the inland coastal plains and Victoria
Crossroads, bringing MVFR vsbys to ALI and VCT. Additionally, MVFR
cigs can be expected during the early morning hours at these sites
as well. LRD and CRP will remain VFR through the period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving in from the east will be within
the vicinity of terminals through the day Sunday, with coverage
increasing more in the afternoon/evening and more so overnight.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
With the coastal trough/low along the northern Texas coast, a bit
more suppression has developed across South Texas with little
convection developing. Isolated showers and storms have developed
mainly along the sea breeze with enough forcing. Continue to keep
highest pops trimmed mainly to the east including the northern
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads as well as the middle Texas
coastal waters due to proximity of the trough/low and availability
of moisture. Through Sunday, the trough/low will slide farther south
along the coast, increasing POPs for Sunday, more so Sunday night.
Again, for Sunday, highest POPs will remain confined across the far
east in the transition, but with decreasing midlevel heights,
maintained likely POPs across the waters and the northern Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Storm motion through the entire
period remains rather weak and PWATS are prog to increase to just
over 2 inches. This tropical atmosphere will allow for moderate to
locally heavy downpours at times. As for temperatures, kept
cooler temperatures across the northeast accounting for the extra
cloud coverage and better chances for rain, with temperatures in
the upper 80s although this may still be too warm. Farther west,
temperatures will generally range in the mid to upper 90s.
LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
Rain chances through the first part of the week are the main
forecast issues in the extended. Models continue to advertise weak
low pressure currently off the coast of Louisiana to be near the
Texas coastline by Monday. Deep moisture characterized by PW values
at or slightly above 2 inches will be across South Texas, especially
across the eastern zones. This will result in increased chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Pops around 50 to 60
percent (some 70s over the Gulf Waters) will be common both days.
Threat does exist for some moderate to locally heavy downpours to
occur, and will keep a mention of this in the HWO. Chances pops will
continue on Wednesday before this feature becomes ill-defined and
weakens. Lingering moisture and daytime heating may result in
isolated convection Thursday and Friday, and will keep 20/30 pops in
the forecast. Temperatures for the first part of the week will
remain below normal (upper 80s/lower 90s) due to rain chances and
abundant cloud cover. Highs should warm a few degrees by the end of
the period as upper ridge builds in.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 75 93 76 90 76 / 10 30 50 60 50
Victoria 73 89 74 89 74 / 20 50 60 60 40
Laredo 76 97 77 93 76 / 10 10 20 50 30
Alice 73 96 74 91 75 / 10 30 30 60 40
Rockport 77 90 78 90 77 / 20 40 60 60 50
Cotulla 75 95 75 90 74 / 10 20 20 50 30
Kingsville 74 95 75 91 75 / 10 30 40 60 40
Navy Corpus 78 90 78 89 78 / 10 30 60 60 50