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000
FXUS64 KCRP 272354 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
554 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AT
THIS TIME ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL BEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE COASTAL BEND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 04Z FALLING TO LIFR AROUND 08Z. VSBYS
FROM AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE IFR BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR THE COASTAL BEND. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY LATE MORNING
FOR VICTORIA AREA AND DETERIORATE TO LIFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST FOR THE
SHORT TERM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON POSITIONING OF A COASTAL
TROUGH AND ANY LITTLE VARIATION OF FORECAST POSITIONING COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AREA WEATHER. AS OF
WRITING...MSAS ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF MCALLEN TO JUST SOUTH
OF EDINBURG EXTENDING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...AND IS
PROG TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WAA JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY 925MB
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KTS PROVIDING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...A 100KT H25 JET STREAK IS PROG TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE PROG TO BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THIS
EVENING AT THE 295K LEVEL AND THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AS WAA INTENSIFIES. DESPITE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID AS A RATHER STOUT WARM LAYER FROM H9 TO H8 IS PROG TO WARM
FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES WHILE FARTHER EAST TEMPS
MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THEN HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR SATURDAY REGARDING
HANDLING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. THE NAM AND TTU WRF KEEP THE
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT IT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE TROUGH INLAND ALONG WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
NAM AND TTU FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN BETTER MODEL
RESOLUTION NEEDED FOR A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS NE AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF TROUGH SLIDES INLAND FARTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY. PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...BUT
SOUTHERLY WAA INCREASES.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN LOWER POPS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEVELOP AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. (IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPEARS LIKELY.) THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTES TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA WEDNESDAY (GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF.) THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A STG UPPER JET STREAK WHICH
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS PATTERN. STG SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. BASED ON GFS
DETERMINISTIC CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST AFTER FROPA OWING TO MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

MARINE...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND PEAK OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  60  55  77  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
VICTORIA          44  58  57  75  64  /  20  50  50  30  20
LAREDO            37  48  46  76  63  /  70  50  30  10  10
ALICE             46  50  49  78  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
ROCKPORT          51  62  61  74  64  /  60  60  50  20  10
COTULLA           37  45  45  75  62  /  50  50  50  20  20
KINGSVILLE        48  55  53  78  65  /  70  70  50  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  63  59  73  64  /  70  70  50  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

TT/89...AVIATION