Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 260928
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
428 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Main weather issue during today and tomorrow will be the heat and
humidity.

Temperatures today should easily top 100 degrees over the Rio
Grande and western Brush Country. Elsewhere, highs will be in the
mid/upper 90s across central sections and upper 80s/lower 90s over
the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. A persistent
onshore flow continues across South Texas today, ushering deeper
moisture into the area. Dewpoints today should be able to climb
into the lower 70s over the Rio Grande and western Brush Country
and middle 70s elsewhere. The combination of the heat and humidity
will produce heat index values at or slightly above 110 degrees
this afternoon for several hours. A heat advisory is in effect
from 18z to 00z along and west of a line from Kingsville to Three
Rivers.

A warm and muggy night is expected across the area tonight under
partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will only fall into the upper
70s.

Hot conditions again will be in store on Saturday. Highs may
actually be a degree or two warmer than today. However, dewpoints
mix out a little bit more tomorrow, most notably over western
parts of the area. Heat index values may approach 110 degrees
tomorrow, but confidence is not high advisory criteria will be
met.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong onshore flow continues this morning across all of the
Middle Texas Coastal Waters. South to southeast winds between 20
and 25 knots with occasional higher gusts will be common. A small
craft advisory remains in effect until 10am.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

The upper level pattern will be transitioning from a zonal flow
aloft to a more active pattern as an upper level longwave trough/low
moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region over the
holiday weekend. A weak frontal boundary will move into Texas,
with ample moisture pooling across the region early next week.
Models still indicate the front will struggle to make it all the
way through South Texas, with it stalling out to the north or just
across the region early next week. This will provide a focus for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to be possible,
mainly Sunday night and Monday. Fairly weak flow across the region
indicates there may be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with
slow storm movement. Going into the mid-week, the main focus with
the frontal boundary dissipates. However, a series of shortwaves
passing in the southwest flow aloft, and high moisture remaining
across the region will allow for more scattered convection daily
through the mid to late week.

Temperatures beginning the period will remain seasonably hot, though
not coming in as warm as during the short term.  Increasing cloud
cover and rain across the region will bring temperatures back down
to more seasonable values Monday through the mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  79  95  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          92  78  94  78  92  /  10  10  10  10  20
Laredo           103  79 104  78  99  /  10  10  10  10  20
Alice             98  78  98  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          88  80  90  80  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          102  78 102  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        98  79  97  79  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       90  80  89  81  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     For the following zones: Duval...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La
     Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM



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