Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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497
FXUS64 KCRP 292038
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
338 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A thin line of showers that was located offshore along the dryline
that pushed across the CWA earlier, has dissipated. Behind the bdry,
drier airmass and abundant sunshine is leading to a quick warm up
this afternoon. The very warm temps over S TX is expected to lead to
a sea breeze pushing inland by late afternoon. Winds are expected to
become E to SE across much of S TX this evening before a cold front
enters the area later tonight. Winds will shift to the NW around 06Z
across the Rio Grande Plains and around 09Z-11Z across the
coastline. Then frontal bdry is expected to push across the coastal
waters by around 12Z-13Z early Thu morning. Winds are progged to be
weak to moderate across the land, but strengthen to advisory levels
over the waters Thu morning. Cooler mn temps and slightly cooler mx
temps are expected. No precip is expected tonight/Thu due to the
very dry airmass in place. Onshore flow quickly returns by Thu
evening, ushering in low level moisture back across S TX.

&&

.Marine (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

The Small Craft Advisory for the waters 20-60NM offshore has been
extended until 8 PM CDT for large seas. Seas are expected to subside
to 4 to 6 feet sometime between 7 and 8 pm. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected across the Coastal WAters once again Thu
morning as a cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday Night)...

Our relatively active pattern looks to reload this weekend after a
couple of quieter days, Thursday/Friday. Onshore flow commences
again on Friday and strengthens throughout the day. PWATs do not
respond too quick with dewpoints climbing only a few degrees during
the day. It is possible a few spots across the Southern Coastal Bend
and Brush Country could experience a few hours of elevated fire
danger conditions as temperatures climb back into upper-80s/low-90s.

Our sensible weather becomes a bit more murky on Saturday with
increasing moisture flux and instability moving back into the
region. The GFS may be a tad too quick bringing back the higher PWAT
airmass but a general consensus shows 1.3-1.5" across the eastern
half of the CWA by Saturday evening. This is in response to a strong
mid-level trough deepening to our north-northwest across the Rockies
and diving southward. We increased PoPs a bit across the parts of
the Northern Brush Country towards the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads where some surface convergence may develop along a
thermal trough sliding eastward during the afternoon hours.

Dp/Dt from the GEPS/GEFS/EPS show that the mid-level trough/closed
low are not diving as far south over the past few days. This keeps
the best moisture convergence and dynamics north-northeast of our
region and therefore a majority of the activity occurs there. Not
saying that we will not see rain from this event but currently the
better chances remain across our northern tier counties in portions
of eastern Texas. Again the medium range and ensemble consistency
has been wavering the past several days which has a large
implication in terms of our area seeing heavier rainfall and
possible strong to severe thunderstorms. We`ll have the moisture and
instability to boot just a matter of the stronger forcing and upper-
level dynamics.

This trough should move off towards the east-northeast by late
Sunday evening allowing our onshore flow to veer all the way around
to the northwest, effectively drying us out. The remainder of the
period becomes stable once again with ridging overhead and continued
warmth.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    61  82  59  86  69  /  10  10   0   0  10
Victoria          56  80  57  85  66  /  10  10   0   0  10
Laredo            60  87  61  96  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             57  84  57  91  66  /  10   0   0   0  10
Rockport          61  79  64  82  71  /  10  10   0   0  10
Cotulla           55  84  58  94  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        58  84  58  90  68  /  10   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       63  79  64  82  71  /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM



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