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000
FXUS64 KCRP 101125 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
625 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS ALI-CRP-
LRD...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ACROSS LRD. SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT INTO
THE MID MORNING...WITH CRP-VCT REACHING VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ON RADAR...WITH GENERAL QUIET CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING. THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD
AIDE IN INCREASED DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTN/EVNG. THE UPPER LOW EXITS
OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT
N-NW-LY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THIS EVENING...WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND A LEADING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LESS
ACTIVITY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER IN
THE AFTERNOON...AM EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH PWATS OF
1.3-1.5 INCHES. SOUNDINGS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE GRIDS DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM
THE UPPER JET POSITIONED OVERHEAD. STRONG NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD QUICKLY END ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TUESDAY BEING DRY WITH CLEARING
SKIES...AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE EXPECTED THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAINTAIN
RATHER COOL MAX TEMPS TODAY RANGING IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUES IN THE
EXTENDED ARE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHERE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT. BEFORE THAT...EVERYTHING RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT SO NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FRONT
COMES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRINGS SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA (HAVE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS).
AFTER A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING (SOME 30S INLAND AREAS)...WILL
SEE A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. AM EXPECTING
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THERE
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT NEXT WEEKEND HOLDS IN STORE. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THINK CAP
WILL BE PRESENT AND CONSIDERING THAT MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP
THINGS SOMEWHAT STABLE DURING THE MORNING...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ONLY
OCCUR NEAR THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND MAY EVEN
BREAK. THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT PUSHING A MENTION OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY AND ONLY MENTION RAIN
OVER THE VICTORIA AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IF GFS IS RIGHT
(AND MOISTURE HANGS AROUND TOO). WILL FOLLOW THE GFS A BIT MORE THAN
ECMWF SOLUTION...AS ECMWF REALLY DROPS UPPER LOW VERY FAR SOUTH AND
AM HAVING TROUBLE BUY THIS SOLUTION FOR MID MARCH. THUS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RIO GRANDE
PLAINS/WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS GFS IS SHOWING SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WHICH COULD
BRING SOME MORE RAIN MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE BUT DID ADJUST BASED ON NEW
GUIDANCE AND SURROUND OFFICE ISC COLLABORATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  53  77  54  66  /  70  60  10  10   0
VICTORIA          67  54  78  52  65  /  50  60  10  10   0
LAREDO            60  52  86  58  69  /  60  30  10   0   0
ALICE             60  52  81  52  66  /  70  50  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          62  55  72  55  65  /  70  70  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  50  83  50  67  /  60  30  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  53  80  55  67  /  70  50  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       61  55  71  57  65  /  70  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION