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000
FXUS64 KCRP 011130
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas this TAF cycle.
Light northeasterly-easterly winds again this afternoon with
cirrus overhead. Winds become light and variable again later this
evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Weak pressure gradient across the region with high pressure overhead
has allowed for decent radiational cooling conditions to occur. The
only fly in the ointment is the amount of thick cirrus spilling over
the top of the ridge across much of Texas helping to keep a blanket
on us and slowing down the nocturnal cooling. With the lighter winds
dewpoints are couple degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, but still
below where we have been so still a win.

Today is looking like a repeat of Friday though it looks a notch
warmer and moister but still right around seasonal levels. Some
better onshore flow on Sunday will add to increasing warmth and
humidity though PWATs look to remain below normal levels. There
could be some very isolated shower activity over the extreme outer
Gulf waters Sunday afternoon where higher total moisture content
will exist but confidence is low at this point so we keep our entire
area dry for the time being.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...

Low level moisture begins to move back into the area at the
beginning of long term period as winds shift east and eventually
southeast. Moisture remains confined mainly to layer below 850mb
however, which should limit precipitation. Have just slight chance
pops Sunday night and Monday night for nocturnal showers mainly over
marine areas. High pressure remains in control over the region
through the first half of the week. Later in the week the ridge
breaks down as a strong upper level trough traverses the northern
US. Significant spread in model guidance continues in regards to the
trough timing and potential cold front for late week. ECMWF has been
a bit more consistent run-to-run with a weak cold front Thursday
night. Regardless of timing, will expect a boundary at some point
late in the week. Will keep just slight chance pops, mainly east for
now until timing and strength questions clear up a bit. Will see
temperatures gradually warm through mid-week with increasing
thickness across the region. Highs may be back into the mid 90s by
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  68  89  70  88  /   0  10  10  10  10
Victoria          84  61  87  65  88  /   0  10  10  10  10
Laredo            87  67  88  68  92  /   0  10  10   0   0
Alice             88  64  90  67  90  /   0  10   0   0   0
Rockport          85  70  87  72  86  /   0  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           86  64  90  66  91  /   0  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        88  65  89  68  90  /   0  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       84  72  86  73  86  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION