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000
FXUS64 KCRP 101744 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1144 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS...WITH VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTN/EVNG...WITH NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...A CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WITH
SOME SUN ABLE TO PEEK THROUGH DURING PORTIONS OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY FROM THE LOW 30S EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK 50 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...AT 12Z SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COT-ALI-VCT LINE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FARTHER SOUTH AT
LRD AND CRP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. NORTH WIND GUSTING 15 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE SECONDARY SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ARRIVED INTO SOUTH TEXAS. DOWNGLIDE HAS
COMMENCED WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVING ALREADY
OCCURRED...CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WARNING (MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD TWO HOURS
OR MORE THOUGH). HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN CWA WHERE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED. STILL THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH 25 DEGREE WIND CHILL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AND BEFORE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND DRYING
BUT COOL TODAY. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE ON THURSDAY...AND
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF REINFORCING RIDGE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS STREAMING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS...MOISTURE IN LOWEST LAYERS DECREASES TEMPORARILY...BUT
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES.  THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK FOR FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A PRETTY FAIR UPGLIDE SITUATION FOR THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT THE 300K SFC (APPROXIMATELY
800MB)...WITH COND PRES DEFICITS IN THE COASTAL BEND DOWN TO
10-20MB. HAVE EXPANDED 40 POPS TO MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND...WITH
30S THROUGH MUCH OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY. IN WESTERN AREAS MOISTURE IS
A BIT LESS AND WILL STICK WITH JUST 20S. TIMING OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED UP A BIT...AND APPEARS A BIT STRONGER. INITIAL WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE REAL FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT NEW MODEL RUNS WOULD INDICATE A FAIRLY
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEEPER AIRMASS CHANGE AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW UP TO AROUND 700MB
LEVEL. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES SAT THROUGH MON NOT GREAT WITH
CHANGING FRONTAL TIMING.  HAVE DECREASED MAX T ON SUNDAY...QUICKER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IF SUN COMES OUT THIS COULD OFFSET THE CAA AND
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. WOULD ALSO EXPECT COOLER MIN
TEMPS FOR SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. WE SHOULD FINALLY BE BROKEN OUT OF THE
RECENT CLOUDY/COOL PATTERN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING EAST WILL BEGIN TO PULL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  37  55  43  54  /  10   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          49  30  57  40  53  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            53  36  57  44  53  /   0   0  10  10  10
ALICE             50  33  54  42  54  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          49  37  54  44  53  /  10   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           53  32  57  41  51  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        50  35  55  43  53  /  10   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       49  40  54  46  55  /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION