Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181212
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
612 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Based on the 12Z CRP sounding showing an environment a tad warmer
than previously forecasted and also based on area observations
where temps have been generally holding steady at 34-36 degrees,
therefore have cancelled the Freeze Warning. A few locations may
briefly hit 32 degrees, but not anticipating it lasting more than
an hour nor being widespread. Have also cancelled the Wind Chill
Advisory as winds and wind chill values are not meeting criteria
and are not expected to this morning. Have also removed the
mention of frozen precip. Did continue with a slight chc of -RA
this morning, however this is more for late morning with chcs
increasing throughout the day.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 515 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

CIGs will remain at VFR levels through this morning across S TX.
However, CIGs are expected to lower (mainly from south to north)
through the afternoon to MVFR then IFR/LIFR this evening and
overnight. Rain chances will increase from south to north across
the eastern portions of S TX throughout the day with the best
chcs tonight into early Fri morning. LRD is expected to have
little to no measurable rainfall.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

A cold airmass continues across the region this morning. Temps have
been hovering around 34-35 degrees under a blanket of clouds.
Question is, will temps drop to freezing by later this morning. In
addition, models have slowed down the return of moisture this
morning, therefore lowered this morning`s pops and decreased areal
coverage. Kept the mention of freezing rain/sleet for later this
morning, however, may do an update later this morning to remove the
mention of frozen precip and Freeze Warning if temps do not budge
and this morning`s sounding shows a warmer environment aloft than
forecasted.

Otherwise, still looks like -RA chances will be on the increase from
south to north this afternoon and tonight as a coastal trough
continues to develop and an upper level long wave trough approaches
from the west and combines with increasing moisture. Also,
isentropic lift increases as the a southerly low level flow
strengthens. Thus kept precip mainly as rain. Kept the mention of
showers or thunder out of the forecast due to lack of instability,
but it can not be ruled out on Friday due to the upper
support/energy with the upper level system. A warming trend is also
progged over the next couple of days.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (Friday through Wednesday)...

Lingering chances of rain will exist Friday night over the Coastal
Bend, Victoria Crossroads, and Gulf Waters. Rain moves east by
Saturday as coastal trough weakens and upper level disturbance
swings through the area. Upper level ridge briefly builds over South
Texas on Saturday with temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s.

Models continue to advertise potent upper level storm system moving
into the Plains on Sunday. Southerly flow increases further on
Sunday and highs should be able to climb into the 70s with lower 80s
across the southern parts of the area. The cold front will
progressing southward across the state on Sunday. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as the front approaches and moves
through South Texas. Favored locations will be over the Victoria
Crossroads and have kept pops around 50 percent. The Rio Grande
Plains and western Brush Country will likely miss out on any rain as
moisture scours out too quickly. The front moves through the area
Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing drier air and clearing
skies to the region.

Quiet weather will be in store for the early part of next week.
Temperatures should be at or slightly above normal for this time of
year. Highs in the 60s and to near 70 at times can be expected
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    44  40  58  46  70  /  20  50  60  20  10
Victoria          44  37  56  45  70  /  10  30  50  30  10
Laredo            46  37  57  41  73  /  10  20  10   0  10
Alice             45  39  54  44  73  /  20  40  50  10  10
Rockport          46  43  58  48  66  /  20  40  60  30  10
Cotulla           46  37  54  40  71  /  10  20  20   0  10
Kingsville        45  40  56  45  73  /  20  50  60  10  10
Navy Corpus       46  45  58  49  68  /  30  60  60  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



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