Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051742 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HANG ON TO 20 POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS. SE WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES...THEN SUBSIDE AROUND 02Z OR 03Z. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AT ALI/VCT/CRP. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z OR
15Z AS SELY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.
STRENGTHENING SE FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RA/SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING MAINLY FOR CRP-ALI-VCT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED AND BRIEF TO WARRANT IN TAFS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE TAFS BUT AGAIN
CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT 1500-2000 FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NEARLY 1.8-2.0 INCH PWATS
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
ACROSS THE GULF AS A RESULT. AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING MUCH IN THE
MORNING...WILL EXPECT A SLOWER APPROACH TO BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS
FARTHER INLAND. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE MIDLEVELS LEADING TO A
BIT OF SUPPRESSION...BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNDER A SLIGHTLY WEAK CAP. DRIER CONDITIONS SET UP FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY LIMITING RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PERSISTENT...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.

AT THE BEACH...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SWELL PERIODS
WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
FACING BEACHES TODAY AND MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LACKING WITH MODELS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WARM...DRY AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  91  79  92  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  92  77  92  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 100  79  99  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             76  95  77  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  90  81  91  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76  97  77  97  76  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        77  93  78  93  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  88  80  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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