Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 191427
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
927 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA...THERE IS CURRENTLY NOT A LOT OF CONVECTION...EXCEPT OVER THE
WATERS AND TO THE NE OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECTING INCREASING
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER JET OVER E TX SHIFTS
ESE AND THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDES EXTRA LIFT. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS AS IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AT THE LRD/ALI/VCT TERMINALS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS
REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME MORE ESE AND SE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS PROG PW VALUES TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES TODAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION AND
WILL GO WITH 50 POPS OVER THESE AREAS. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ON SATURDAY
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH STREAMER
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO BE PULLED FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH MODEL RUN...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT ALSO BEING PULLED FURTHER NORTH. DESPITE THIS...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERING INTO THE REGION MONDAY. PWATS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO
NEAR AND BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN CHANCES...REMAINING IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  76  91  75  92  /  40  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          90  74  92  74  93  /  50  20  30  10  20
LAREDO            96  76  96  78  96  /  30  20  30  20  20
ALICE             93  74  93  75  94  /  40  20  30  10  20
ROCKPORT          90  78  90  78  90  /  50  20  30  20  20
COTULLA           93  75  96  76  94  /  30  20  30  10  20
KINGSVILLE        93  75  93  75  92  /  40  20  30  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  79  90  /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




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