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000
FXUS64 KCRP 011201
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS TO TERMINALS. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR BY
MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR
27-31KTS. THIS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS
PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
EAST TODAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND COASTAL
BEND TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND ANTICIPATE DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
GOING INTO MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
ELEVATED WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT FROM
06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...AND HAVE SCA WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE BAYS TO NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVERLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
WIDE VARIANCE WITH REGARD TO HIGHS. GFS IS COMING IN ON THE WARMER
SIDE...WITH SOME SIGHTS IN THE 80S...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING MUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENT THINKING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING OCCURRING WE WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT GOING QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 40S TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TOMORROW WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY...WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
FORECAST GETTING A BIT HIGHER BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
TO END THE RAIN FORECAST (EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT). AM GOING TO TREND THINGS IN GRADUALLY ENDING RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL AND VICTORIA AREAS
(SLIGHT CHANCE WESTERN COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT
NOTHING FARTHER WEST). ALSO...THINK RAIN WILL NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST
UNTIL TUESDAY (AND PROBABLY MORE IN THE AFTERNOON)...SO HAVE TRIMMED
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT TO ONLY THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. RAIN GOOD
BET TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING...AND BETTER
BET TUESDAY OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. RAIN
TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPACTS FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVE
EAST. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
FRONT ON THURSDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
FRONT THAN ECMWF...AND AM GOING TO LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN BUT NOT WHOLE-HEARTEDLY (THINK POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
HELP PUSH SURFACE LOW EAST AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN...CANADIAN IS
WAY TOO COLD). NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. A FEW SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW COMING DOWN ON FRIDAY AND LATE SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN AREAS OF RAIN...AND COOLER FRIDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE SUPERBLEND
NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  46  55  44  55  /  20  20  10  10  60
VICTORIA          74  41  53  41  53  /  30  20  10  10  60
LAREDO            77  47  57  43  51  /  10  10  10  40  50
ALICE             78  47  56  43  55  /  20  20  10  20  50
ROCKPORT          68  46  53  44  55  /  30  20  10  10  60
COTULLA           73  44  56  43  52  /  20  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        78  48  56  44  56  /  20  20  10  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       70  47  53  47  55  /  20  20  10  10  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION