Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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