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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242354
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday
  through Sunday.

- Severe potential exists Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. All
  hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail,
  tornadoes and flooding.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain anticipated. This may lead to
  flash flooding and river flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 458 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently, the SPC mesoscale analysis shows the surface ridge to the
northeast over the Great Lakes region. This ridge is expected to
slowly move out of the area as mid-level ridging slowly moves across
central CONUS. This will result in calm conditions with light winds
from the east-southeast. Cloud coverage is anticipated to be light
to scattered across the entire area. Highs are expected to be near
seasonal normals while low temperatures are expected to be a few
degrees warmer than average.

Later tonight, the mid-level ridge will continue to shift east as it
is pushed out by a strong, mid-level trough. As this trough emerges
from the southwest, the associated surface warm front will also be
pushing through the area from the southwest. There is a chance for
some elevated showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the warm front
that approaches from the southwest Thursday morning. As the surface
warm front begins to move over the area Friday morning, winds will
begin to shift to the south increasing instability and setting the
stage for our severe potential. Friday SPC has our area in a slight
risk for severe weather. As the approaching mid-level trough becomes
negatively-tilted upstream, we are left in the diffluent area. In
addition to warm air advection and increased moisture transport
results in increased instability. This is also reflected in surface
CAPE values exceeding 2,500 J/kg and mid 60 dew point temperatures.
With bulk shear exceeding 50 kts, the atmosphere will have the
necessary shear needed to support storm organization. A surface cold
frontal boundary is expected to approach the area Friday afternoon,
providing additional lift increasing the potential for strong to
severe storms. All hazards will be possible including large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flooding is also a concern especially
with multiple rounds of rainfall expected through the weekend. One
of the main limiting factors will be convective activity Friday
morning. These storms may modify the environmental expectations for
additional convection Friday afternoon. We will need to see how the
atmosphere recovers between rounds of storms.

Additional upper level waves move through the region Saturday and
Sunday keeping storm chances around. Return-flow from the Gulf keeps
advecting moisture and instability into the region. Another system
approaches the region from the southwest. As the associated cold
front overruns a dry line in eastern KS, strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop. Some storms are also expected to develop
in the warm sector with isentropic ascent. Ample shear exists to
facilitate and maintain strong updrafts creating the potential
for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue through Sunday across the
area. Hail and strong winds will be the main concerns once again
Sunday. With storms farther north, higher shear values are expected;
therefore a tornado or two is possible. Rainfall accumulations from
Thursday to Sunday could surpass 4 to 6 inches. Even though we are
running at a precipitation deficit, the potential for both flash and
river flooding exists with this much rainfall anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions through the overnight with light southeast wind.
Increasing winds are expected through the day Thursday, with
gusty winds developing through the daylight hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
after 15Z. Along with these storms, MVFR ceilings and reductions
in visibility are possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier/Pesel
AVIATION...BT