Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 271052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
552 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 206 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

The potential for widespread severe weather this afternoon and
evening continues to increase as short-term trends come into higher
resolution. An MCS is currently advancing eastward across south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas as of early Saturday
morning. This activity will undergo only slight weakening as it
approaches northwest Missouri by the mid-morning. The cold pool
generated from the MCS may play a critical role in the development
of anticipated severe weather this afternoon. As the MCS crosses
into northwest Missouri, a surface low will lift northeastward into
eastern Kansas by the mid-afternoon, bringing with it a highly
unstable airmass up against the I-70 corridor. Surface dewpoint
values will increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s over areas
south of the Missouri River. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave will
eject out of an upper-level trough situated over the Northern and
Central Rockies, atop a primed low-level environment. This will
all equate to a highly favorable setup for robust convection by
the early afternoon into the evening, particularly for areas just
north of I-70, extending to points well south. The surface low
should be limited in its northeastward trek as the MCS-driven cold
pool pushes against it. This will in turn present strong surface
convergence within a highly unstable environment, as MUCAPE values
exceed 4000 J/kg along and south of the warm front. With ample
mid-level flow, 0-6 km shear values of 40+ knots will support
rotating updrafts. Also expecting backed surface winds in the
vicinity of the warm front and points south, thus increasing the
potential for a few tornadoes across central Missouri this
afternoon before the surface low surges southeastward. The
tornadic potential may be increased near the surface low, which
looks to position itself near west central to southwestern
Missouri Saturday afternoon/evening. Aside from the tornadic
potential, very large hail and damaging winds are possible as the
storm system advances from eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early this afternoon and steadily pushes southeastward by the
early evening into central Missouri. With the holiday weekend in
full swing, action plans will need to be considered no later than
Saturday morning, especially for those camping, who may be
unfamiliar with local storm shelters in the relevant areas.

By Sunday morning, steady northwesterly surface winds are expected
in the wake of the exiting storm system and dry conditions will be
maintained through the latter half of the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain steady at near-seasonal values through
much of the upcoming week. May see additional storm development by
the mid-week, though forcing will remain rather limited until the
late week. At that point, models point to the possibility of a
large region of moisture advection extending into the Northern
Plains as the upper jet migrates well north. Any overhead impulses
could trigger warm advection showers/storms, though a blocking
ridge pattern should limit widespread precipitation chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

Dry conditions will continue through the late morning to early
afternoon before thunderstorm activity approaches the terminals
from eastern Kansas. Gusty winds and marginally reduced
visibility is possible coincident with this activity, though
storms will quickly progress eastward by the late afternoon.
Surface winds will become northwesterly in the wake of the
activity and low level stratus will likely linger overnight. Could
see a brief period of MVFR ceilings before VFR conditions return
Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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