Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 050936
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
436 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

It`s another night watching storms percolate across the Plains
States with the potential for storms to linger on through much of the
day. Looking at he big picture across the Nation early this morning,
water vapor imagery shows a moderately amplified flow across the
contiguous U.S.A. with a ridge axis along the front range of the
Rocky`s. Within the larger pattern are noted a number of shortwave
troughs that will influence our weather over the next 48 hours. first
shortwave to note is seen spinning its way into eastern Kansas early
this morning thanks to the northwest flow. Second shortwave of note
is cresting the ridge axis along the Dakota border with Canada.

Today... The shortwave in eastern Kansas has already generated some
extensive convection across Kansas early this morning, and with the
help of a 25 knot southwest nocturnal jet --as sampled off the radar
wind profilers-- more storms are bubbling up across southeast Kansas
into southwest Missouri this morning. Farther east, across central
Missouri, isentropic lift ahead of the shortwave on the 305K surface
has developed showers. Expect this activity in both areas to fill in
through the morning hours as the shortwave continues to dig to the
southeast. This does not change the going forecast much, though the
ultimate expectations have been adjusted. Still looks like much of
the region will likely get a little bit of rain today, though the
highest rainfall totals are expected in areas south of the Missouri
River as the track of the shortwave takes the focus for precipitation
more into southern Missouri. Therefore have adjusted POPs and QPF to
reflect the more southern solution that current short range models
and radar trends advertise. Severe weather is not expected as our
area will be on the "cool side" of the shortwave, thus not nearly as
much instability as there could be with 0-6KM shear values generally
staying under 25 knots. Only portion of the forecast area where the
shear and instability might be able to conspire together would be
across our far southwest corner; east central Kansas into far west
central Missouri south of Kansas City this afternoon. Shear values in
the late morning and afternoon increase into the 30 to 35 knot range
as the shortwave moves though, but it is expected that instability
will be rather poor owing to the convection and cast off
precipitation from this morning. As a result, expect much of the
activity for storms to pass across southern Missouri though the
morning and afternoon hours with the potential for precipitation
fading in the evening hours.

With the passing of the eastern Kansas shortwave today the region
should be able to dry out a little tonight and through the day
Thursday as the ridge to our west flattens out some and expands into
Missouri. This will push temperatures back up, but still leave
conditions rather nice for early August. However, the chance for
storms will quickly return Thursday night as the Canadian border
shortwave slides into the Upper Great Lakes. Enhanced moisture
transport on the nocturnal jet may be able to get storms percolating
across the region again.

Otherwise, expect the chance for storms to persist through the
weekend as the flattened ridge remains across the Plains States,
resulting in a repeated potential for storms as various shortwave
troughs run the ridge crest just to our north. Currently, Sunday
looks to have the best chance for some kind of organized storms as it
looks like a stout trough moving through the Northern Plains will
force a cold front through Kansas and Missouri sometime Sunday.
Additional implication from this is that it might be a bit warm and
muggy Friday and through the weekend, but that temperatures will back
off a little going into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight through Wednesday at all
TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-intensify
over central KS early Wednesday morning and push east southeast, but
may stay south of all terminals. Have kept the VCTS groups in case
these storms approach the KC sites, but am not confident in placement
that far north. Otherwise, much of Wednesday may be clear with storms
focusing mainly to the south. Winds will gradually back to the east
and remain around or less than 10 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin


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