Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231049
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
549 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...Moderate to heavy rainfall expected this holiday weekend...

Continued concern for the short-term portion of the forecast
period remains the moderate to heavy rainfall threat tonight
through Sunday. Copious amounts of moisture will be advecting into
the region throughout the day, thanks to southerly flow
transporting it unimpeded from the GoMex. For today, mid-level dry
air will keep precip chances in the isolated to scattered
category, slowly ramping up this evening into the overnight hours
as that dry air erodes. Model soundings tonight through tomorrow
are rather reminiscent of warm, tropicalesque processes at play,
setting the stage for efficient rain producers. PWAT values flirt
with upper-end percentiles based on climatology, as they exceed an
inch and a half through late Sunday. Current indications for rain
totals beginning tonight through Monday morning have widespread
amounts exceeding 1.25" to ~1.75", with higher amounts
particularly possible across east-central KS and west-central MO,
potentially reaching upwards of 2.5", with locally higher amounts
everywhere possible. As such, the Flash Flood Watch issued
yesterday remains valid, with just a trim temporally to the tail
end of it.

The reason for the trim is the drier air that is expected to move
in on Monday, assisting to significantly lower widespread precip
chances for the holiday. However, just as many mark this holiday
weekend as the unofficial start to summer, the meteorological models
seem to follow suit with day after day of storm chances throughout
much of the mid- to long-range forecast. Perturbation after
perturbation, ripple after ripple in the upper pattern spells a
prolonged period of unsettled weather but at this time, it`s not
the type of scenario where the entire forecast period is a
washout, but rather just renewed chances existing each day with
warm, moist air in place for these disturbances to work with.

As already alluded to, temperatures will be warmer for the entire
forecast period as compared to what the highs have been for the
last few days. While highs today will still struggle to reach out
of the 60s for many locations, particularly in the western half of
the forecast area, 70s beginning tomorrow through next week should
be easy to come by, with widespread 80s making an appearance at
the very least on Wednesday and Thursday. Sixties for low temps
will dominate throughout the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Conditions for aviation interests today will consist of hit and
miss showers that shouldn`t impact the terminals too much unless a
healthy shower is able to develop. However, as the night
progresses tonight, widespread rain will move into the region,
negatively impacting all four terminals tonight through the rest
of the TAF period. At this point, while confidence is high in
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, lowering ceilings and visbys,
better fine tuning of these impacts will likely be best reserved
for the next TAF issuance. Winds will be out of the SW at around
10 to 15 knots or so throughout the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
     MOZ012>014-020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg





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