Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 222316
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY
AS TO THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW. BY THURSDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ANYWHERE FROM AMARILLO TX /NAM/ TO ROCHESTER
MN /EC/. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST AND TOO FAST WITH SLOWER
EC/GFS PREFERRED. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
WHICH BASICALLY HAS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW MORE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS WITH OUR AREA TEMPORARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
COLORADO. SO IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TRENDED DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ALOFT BEING TO OUR EAST. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING IT BACK NORTH...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WERE KEPT DRY UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT
AT SHRA/TSRA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE COLORADO SHOULD MOVE ALONG KS/NE BORDER AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT KMCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD END
AT KGLD FIRST...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AT KMCK. SHORT TERM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHICH
COULD IMPACT KGLD...POSSIBLY KMCK AROUND 12Z. I KEPT IFR CIG GROUP
IN PLACE AROUND 12Z AT KGLD...BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
LOWER CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING TUESDAY REGARDLESS OF
EVOLUTION OF STRATUS AS MIXING INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.