Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 454 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Quick update sent out to acct for falling temps at sunset. Trend a
bit faster than what is in forecast. With increasing high clouds
expected as the evening/overnight hours expect
radiational cooling effects to lessen. For now will leave
overnight lows intact for now and further assess in a couple
hours for next ESTF update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Upper level ridging is in place over the SW US and building east
into the Central Rockies. Subsidence and a deep dry air mass
within the eastern extend of this ridge extends across our CWA.
A strong upper low is off the Pacific Northwest coast with
diffluent flow between these upper level features over the Great

Tonight-Sunday: Quiet period expected as upper level shortwave
ridge transitions over our CWA. WAA increases with south-
southwest low level flow (east of lee trough), and this will
result in above normal high temperatures. High clouds do increase
tonight and this could complicate cooling potential tonight and
warming potential Monday. It does appear that a period of clearing
should occur by the afternoon. Considering temps aloft, clearing
skies, and good mixing we may see highs into the mid 60s for some
locations and many locations at or over 60F. Impact of snow pack
should be diminished after another day of melting, though it was
still accounted for in latest forecast. Good mixing and increasing
gradient east of the surface low should also lead to another
ground of breezy-windy conditions Monday (gusts 25-35mph

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

The focus of the long term period is on the possible precipitation
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Model solutions are coming into better agreement with the latest
model runs trending the area of precipitation further north
across the forecast area. This is a result of models providing
better agreement in the placement of the surface low center that
deepens over northeast Colorado Monday afternoon and moves
eastward along the northern tier of Kansas Monday night and
Tuesday. The surface low lifts off to the northeast towards the
upper midwest on Tuesday night as additional upper short wave
troughs move through the upper flow across the forecast area.
Subsidence aloft moves into the region by Wednesday along with
drier air, so feel this precipitation event will be confined to
the Tuesday through Tuesday night time period across the mainly
the northern sections of the forecast area. The progressive
eastward movement of the system favors only light precipitation
with a half inch or less of snow across the northern sections with
some mixed phase precipitation due to temperatures coming up above
freezing during a portion of the day on Tuesday.

Late Monday through late Tuesday have gone with the CONSMOS rather
than the Superblend with regard to wind speeds as the pressure
gradient strengthens on the back side of the deepening low as it
exits the forecast area.

Through the remainder of the work week and into next weekend,
expect dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures as the
main upper trough moves east and is replaced by westerly flow
aloft east of the Rockies. By next weekend a high amplitude ridge
is advertised over the west coast with a deepening downstream
trough that develops into a closed cutoff low that eventually
moves into northern mexico. Confidence is lower in model
solutions beyond the end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 404 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Conditions...VFR with SKC becoming SCT200-250.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...WNW around 10kts thru 08z Monday. From 08z
Monday onward...SSW 10-15kts with gusts 20-30kts from 17z Monday
onward. For KMCK...00z-03z Monday NW around 10kts. 03z-11z Monday
WSW around 10kts. 11z Monday onward...SSE 5-15kts with gusts to
20kts 17z-2230z.




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