729
FXUS63 KGLD 130407
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through
  Thursday with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
  Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Much lower chances (20%-30%) for precipitation Friday and
  Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
  80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

This afternoon and evening will have more widespread
precipitation, stronger storms, as a low pressure system is
moving over the CWA. Since last night, the 850 mb LLJ has been
moving more moisture into the region and now that the surface
low is in the CWA, wrap-around precipitation is occurring and
will continue into the night. CAPE still seems moderate with
1,000-1,500 J/kg and little CIN to hold it back. Shear is fairly
weak, with 0-6km shear less than 25 kts across nearly all of
the CWA. 0-3 CAPE is one of the most impressive parameters for
the afternoon with soundings showing 50-150 J/kg ahead of the
first wave of precipitation. This setup makes landspouts
possible in the early stages of the event. Model guidance is
having a difficult time resolving exact placement for any
boundaries early this afternoon, but the area most likely for a
boundary to set-up will in a north/south orientation and within
about 50 miles of the CO/KS border throughout our CWA. This
boundary would serve as a focal point for any landspout
formation.

As the storms mature and the event progress (around 21-3Z time
frame), hail will become more of a threat. As the low moves to
the eastern side of the CWA, shear will slightly increase (5-15
kts) and more moisture will wrap into the CWA, giving us a
higher threat for severe hail. With the weaker shear and warm,
moist lower levels, heavy rain could become an issue, causing
some concern for flooding potential, mainly southeastern CWA.
However, due to little rainfall over the previous week and the
types of storm formation expected, there is about 15% confidence
flooding would occur. More information can be found in the
Hydro section below.

The storms will look to grow to the south as the entire system
moves to the east. CAMs are showing 2-3 bands of rain forming in
the northwestern CWA before moving across the CWA. The western
storms will be moving quicker than the storms over the eastern
CWA. By 6Z, majority of the storms should have moved out of the
area, but lingering showers through 12-18Z Monday is possible in
the far eastern CWA.

As the storms begin clearing out, northwesterly winds will pick
up, gusts up around 20-25 kts by tomorrow afternoon are
expected. Also, as the storms move out overnight, the skies will
begin to clear up again from west to east. This will let low
temperatures in the west cool into the lower 40s while locations
in the east will stay in the 50s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be
mostly clear, and despite northerly winds, high temperatures
look to warm into the mid 70s. The mostly clear skies will
continue overnight tomorrow and temperatures across the entire
Tri-State area will cool into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Westerly to northwesterly flow will be in place over the area
Tuesday as an upper level trough dives southeast across the
Bighorns and into portions of Colorado. Afternoon high
temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s, about 10
degrees above normal in some locations. Ahead of the advancing
trough, there will be a potential for showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Tri- State area. Right now, the best
chances for shower/storm activity appears to be Tuesday
afternoon for areas along and north of Interstate 70 (50-70%
chance). Precipitation chances will decrease west to east across
the area Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.

Wednesday and Thursday, the upper trough crosses into eastern
Nebraska and western Colorado. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler both days as a weak cold front moves through the region
and cool air filters in. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid-70s both days. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms both days as this system moves through the region.

Friday and into to the weekend, we are looking at the potential
for a warm up. Uncertainty remains as the pattern becomes more
active. Models show split slow becoming more pronounced Thursday
and into the weekend. The northern split extends from West
Coast to East Coast, with the upper trough exiting the region to
the east. Heading into Friday and the weekend, models diverge
significantly, with the GFS bringing a ridge over the area. The
ECMWF brings an upper trough over the region for that period of
time. There is a non-zero chance for a few isolated showers and
storms during this time, however, confidence in this solution is
extremely low for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

A period of sub-VFR ceilings is possible at the MCK terminal
overnight into Monday morning, otherwise.. VFR conditions are
anticipated to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals.
Winds will remain light and variable overnight.. becoming
northerly at 10-15 knots Monday morning and persisting into the
afternoon. Winds will become light and variable during the late
afternoon and early evening.. near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Vincent