Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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043
FXUS63 KGLD 131131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...SKIES ARE CLOUDY AS THE
AREA LIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST...AND A MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPS ARE
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.

IT WILL BE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE THE MAIN WX FEATURE
THRU THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW
CURRENTLY...THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING FOG THAT WILL LINGER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS GO ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS
MORNING.

CLEARING WILL ENSUE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT
NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ROLLS OFF THE ROCKIES FROM THE NW...AND
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM LOOKS BEST FOR
CHANCES AT LIGHT PRECIP AS COMPARED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY...AND ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH
A TRANSITION/MIX TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE SE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LACK OF MOISTURE AND QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFORD
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF AT BEST...SO WILL LOOK FOR LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM OF SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA.

THE THIRD SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO THE
AREA. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES
WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.

FOR TEMPS...THE SLOW...MEANDERING MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL
GIVE THE AREA A SHARP GRADIENT FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SECTIONS...THRU THE 40S INTO THE 50S IN SPOTS FOR
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SW KANSAS ZONES. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RISING
FROM THE 20S TONIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 30S BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY.  BEHIND THE RIDGE
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  CURRENTLY
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR KGLD... MAINLY IFR AND BELOW THRU 16Z WITH CEILINGS
OVC002-006 AND VISIBILITY 1 1/2SM TO 5SM IN FOG. FROM 16Z-
20Z...MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC011. FROM 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
ONWARD...VFR SKIES WITH BKN070 LIFTING TO BKN250. WINDS SSE
10-20KTS THRU 04Z SUNDAY THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.

FOR KMCK...THRU 02Z SUNDAY CEILINGS WILL VARY OVC003-008 WITH
VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 1 1/2SM TO 5SM IN FZDZ/FZFG. BY 02Z
SUNDAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS BKN070 BECOMING SKC BY 08Z SUNDAY.
WINDS SE 10-20KTS THRU 02Z SUNDAY...THEN SHIFTING TO SW AROUND
10KTS BEFORE ENDING AT NW BY 08Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



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