Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280940
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

FOR TODAY ON THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO REGION SITTING UNDER A BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE W/ A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN GIVING THE AREA ZONAL FLOW WITH BROAD WSW
FLOW. A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE ON
SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH...WHICH MODELS HAVE PUSHING THRU THE
TRI STATE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA...BUT OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO WORK IN THE COLD AIRMASS FROM
THE NNE MOVING TO THE SW.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NO PRECIPITATION TODAY THRU SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. GOING
INTO SUNDAY WITH FROPA TO OCCUR...SHARP TEMP GRADIENT AND INCREASE
IN MODEL RH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AND EVEN SOME
FLURRIES WITH CLOUDS ALONG BOUNDARY. MODEL QPF NEAR ZERO DURING
FROPA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AS TEMPS DROP
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HRS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW(5-15
MPH) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NORTH(10-20MPH) AS FROPA OCCURS. HIGHER WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
OCCUR AFTER FROPA ON SUNDAY WITH FOCUS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS IN THE SHORT
TERM. 850/925 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +18C TO ALMOST +21C ON
FRIDAY...AND NEAR +15C TO +17C ON SATURDAY. THESE NUMBERS COMBINED
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS...WILL BRING NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES TO THE TRI STATE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. GOING INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING THRU...LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING
HIGHS FROM NE TO THE SW. SHARP TEMPS GRADIENT AT BOTH 850/925 MB
LEVELS WILL PROMPT MAINLY MID 30S FOR HIGHS...WITH L40S IN SW ZONES.
CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH EXPECTED WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING ONLY INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW
ZERO...WHICH ARE ABOVE ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE ZONAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK THE LONG WAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES.

THE NAVGEM... GFS... AND ECMWF ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THEY EACH SHOW THE TRI STATE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSRUE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 02/18Z TO
03/00Z. AS OF NOW NOT GOING TO ADD PRECIPITATION AS THE MODELS
SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

AFTER 03/00Z...THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PREESURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF DO
SHOW A MORE WELL DEFINE AREA OF HIGH PREESURE COMPARE TO THE GFS.
THEY ALSO BRING THE NEXT FRONT/SHORTWAVE ON 05/12Z...HOWEVER DO NOT
AGREE OF PLACEMENT AND TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

LACK OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS GOING
INTO TODAY DO BRING ABOUT POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS TODAY
IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE WEST WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA
FOR ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT...BUT WILL BE MONITORED
DURING THE DAY SHOULD WIND FORECAST CHANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY AT...

BURLINGTON....RECORD: 75 IN 1949...FORECAST: 76
GOODLAND......RECORD: 72 IN 1986...FORECAST: 76
HILL CITY.....RECORD: 72 IN 1986...FORECAST: 71
MCCOOK........RECORD: 72 IN 1933...FORECAST: 71

RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT...

BURLINGTON....RECORD: 72 IN 2003...FORECAST: 72
GOODLAND......RECORD: 75 IN 2003...FORECAST: 72
HILL CITY.....RECORD: 70 IN 2003...FORECAST: 70
MCCOOK........RECORD: 73 IN 2003...FORECAST: 71

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...JN
CLIMATE...JN



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