Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251339
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM
DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER OF A REGIONAL SCALE MIDDLE AND UPPER
RIDGE...(500-200 MB) IS LOCATED NEAR 26 NORTH 74 WEST. THE CENTER OF
A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW...AT ABOUT 250
MB...IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25 NORTH 85
WEST. AS A RESULT...DEEP MID AND UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INDICATED
FROM 500 MB UP...WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DETAIL THAT THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAIN JUST BENEATH THE 1020 MB SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1025 MB
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30 NORTH 55 WEST. ACROSS THE
TROPICS...THE AXIS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED
GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...AND A
MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH (PWAT) PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT 1.85 INCHES...UP A QUARTER INCH FROM 24 HOURS PRIOR.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISPERSED ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE TYPICALLY TORRID AND HAVE RISEN
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S.

.FORECAST...SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN CONSTANT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE LATEST
GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION THAT THE SURFACE TO 500 MB
WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A POSSIBLE CLOUDLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO OCCUR RIGHT OVER THE
ISLANDS...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST...06Z RUN OF THE WRF DOES
NOT SHOW THE CLOUDLINE ATTM EITHER BUT...ONCE AGAIN SINCE EVIDENCE
IS NOT THAT SOLID AT THIS POINT...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN
UPDATE WOULD BE PERFORMED CLOSER TO NOON.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CLOUDLINE IN HAWK CHANNEL...OR EVEN IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF
WATERS AND FLORIDA BAY WITHIN A FEW MILE NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN. MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR WATERSPOUTS...WHICH
FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF LONG DARK FLAT CLOUD BASES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS.........DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........11
DATA COLLECTION.............BF

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