Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 190250
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1050 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING SHOW A DEEP...LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FLORIDA
KEYS LIE AT THE FAR SOUTHERN FLANK...WHERE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE
WEAK. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD SURFACE-700MB CYCLONIC
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH. RECENT KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
PLETHORA OF OLD BOUNDARIES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
WITH BARELY ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES EVIDENT ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL OR
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND CHAOTIC.

WE HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MOST
AREAS.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THEREAFTER. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EITHER THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
OR MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING FRIDAY DUE TO CUMULUS CLOUD LINE
DEVELOPMENT 19/16Z-19/23Z. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SO WE WILL
PRESENT VCSH FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...BACKING FROM 230/05KT FRIDAY...EXCEPT GUSTY IN AND NEAR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.