Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261857
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
257 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX Doppler radar loops show that convection flared close to and
along sections of the Keys island chain today. Most recent images
show the activity is favoring the Gulf side of the Lower Keys and
the Atlantic side of the Middle and Upper Keys extending well into
the Straits. Under mostly cloudy skies and away from any rainfall,
temperatures are in the upper 80s with variable winds less than 10
knots.

The local surface pattern will remain quite weak over the next
few days while a distinct mid to upper level trough near the
western edge of Florida eases westward. We will remain quite
moist and unstable as the low level flow acquires a light south
southeasterly component tonight through late Wednesday. The
overall forecast reasoning has not changed significantly from our
past few cycles, save for one distinction. That would be a low
amplitude, low level wave/trough that eases across South Florida
and the Keys late this week into the early portion of the weekend.
On account of that feature, did bump our probability of measurable
precipitation up to likely from late the work week into early this
weekend. All other sensible weather grids were left relatively
unchanged for the other times of this forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from scattered showers and at least a few thunderstorms, the
flow will remain light across the coastal waters surrounding the
Florida Keys over the next couple of days. No advisories or
cautionary headlines for small craft will be necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA could affect EYW this afternoon and SHRA to MTH, causing MVFR
or IFR vis and/or cigs. Otherwise, winds will be variable at 5 to 10
knots this evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  87  81  86 / 50 50 50 50
Marathon  80  89  80  88 / 50 50 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...04
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN
Data Collection......Chesser

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