Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
510 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE REGISTERED AT
OUR AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND OBSERVING STATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING...WITH SOME CUMULUS MIGRATING OFF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND FLORIDA. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BEYOND 20 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...TRACKING OFF TO THE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE LOCAL 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A RELATIVELY
DRY ATMOSPHERE LAST EVENING...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 900
MB...THEN BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB.
MULTIPLE STABLE LAYERS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WHICH HAS BEEN
PAR FOR THE COURSE THAT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST SATURDAY...FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION WISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LACK OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND A
LIFTING MECHANISM...RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN
NEAR NIL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO
THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL AND
ENTER IN TO MAY.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN TO MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN A BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK...SO DIME POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
WILL PRESS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...STRETCHING DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FROPA ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS IF THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PERSISTS. A REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY WITH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DAY IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE YEAR
1941...6.04 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST...SETTING THE DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR APRIL 29TH. THIS ALSO RANKS AS THE SECOND WETTEST
DAY EVER IN THE MONTH OF APRIL...FALLING BEHIND 6.19 INCHES OF RAIN
IN 1985. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK 1871.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  77  84  77 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  84  77  83  77 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....RIZZO
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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