Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 141534
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SHAVED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND WINDS
WERE INCREASED BY A FEW KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INCLUDED FOR A
PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CURRENT SITUATION/ANALYSIS -- A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CELL COVERS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...FROM QUEBEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL
BREEZES FRESHENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...INITIALLY FROM THE
NORTH...BUT QUICKLY VEERED TO NORTHEAST. A SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION COMMENCED SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SERVICE
AREA...BUT THAT SHOULD BE OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...
SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN SUNNY...WITH STRATOCUMULUS
ENCROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE EAST. AN OCEANIC MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE GULF STREAM HAS INDUCED THICKER STRATOCUMULUS AND
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR FLORIDA
KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS KEEP
VEERING. FRESH BREEZES WILL PERSIST FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 15/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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