Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KKEY 270733
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
333 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
A weak wave is passing southwest of the area while a large upper low
moves east off the Virginia / Carolina coast. MIMIC Tropical
Precipitable Water products support this as the axis of a swath of
moist tropical air is collocated with the surge in showers and
thunderstorms across the Keys area this morning. An area of high
pressure is oriented from the western Atlantic, across the Florida
Peninsula with the Keys area on the southern edge. Another wave is
located near Hispaniola and moving westward.
.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A weak wave will move past the Keys today and is adding list to the
environment with some weak diffluence aloft. Expect easterly winds
to surge again this morning through early Thursday, then gradually
relax Thursday night. The next weak wave will move across the area
tonight, reinforcing the easterly winds and chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Deep layer ridging will take over on Friday but ripples in the
surface high pressure will produce peaks and lulls in winds, showers
and thunderstorms through the Saturday night. A TUTT cell will pass
south of Cuba and the Straits on Sunday with a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms returning. Winds will increase again on
Sunday lasting through Tuesday.
A weak wave will continue to move westward away from the Keys area
today, and breezes seem to be highest near the axis of the wave south
of the Lower Keys. Another perturbation will move across Cuba and the
Straits tonight and Thursday with breezes surging once again. A
statement for small craft exercise caution may be raised and lowered
several times mainly on the Flroida Straits through Thursday as
winds peak and lull.
Will mention VCSH in both TAFs through the morning. Coverage is
expected to be a little greater than yesterday. Will amend TAFs as
needed for showers/thunderstorms. Impacts should last an hour or
less and would include brief visibilities of 1-3SM...wind gusts to
25 knots...and MVFR ceilings. Outside of thunderstorm activity east
to southeast winds 11 to 17 knots are expected.
The record high minimum temperature for both July 27 and July 28 at
Key West is 84 degrees set in 2014 and previous years.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 90 82 89 82 / 40 30 30 30
Marathon 91 81 91 82 / 40 30 30 30
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