Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221303
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
903 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS...ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE KEYS
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE KEYS AT THIS HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST METROPLEX WITH A TROUGH LAYING OFF THE EAST
COAST STATES...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE...NEAR THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SITTING IN THE TAIL
OF THIS TROUGH...PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

.FORECAST...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING FOR THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
CUBA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION
DUE TO THE CO-LOCATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL INCLUDE PERIODS OF
RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT TIMES LOCALIZED HEADY DOWNPOURS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNTIED
STATES...USHERING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS
RIDGING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BE A HARBINGER OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON SATURDAY...DRYING OUT THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON ALL KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN FROM 120 EARLY THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 080 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO BETWEEN 040-050 BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR EPISODES WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. AWAY FROM ANY
CELLS...MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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