Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260216
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS STABLE AND QUITE
DRY...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NEARSHORE GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUSTAINED NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AT
BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS.
CEILINGS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3K
FEET...ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR AND WILL ISSUE
TIMELY AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WHICH
REPRESENT HEAD WIND ISSUES FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 49 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 25TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................BWC

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