Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 081122 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
522 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Temperatures will be main concern for short term forecast. Strong
northwest flow will continue over north central Nebraska to the
east of a valentine to Broken bow line. Northwest winds 15 to 25
mph with gusts to around 30 and single digit temperatures
creating wind chills in the -15 to -20 range. Temperatures would
drop off several more degrees towards sunrise and will increase
wind chill values. Will continue advisory through mid morning as
temperatures continue to fall with surface high to the northwest
and moving east.

Cold again today with highs in the lower teens northwest and the
upper teens south similar to yesterday. Winds diminishing over
the west this morning and the remainder of the eastern zones
through the afternoon.

Winds becoming southeasterly tonight on the backside of the
surface high as it moves east and increasing clouds. Lows
expected most areas early...after midnight and then holding
steady or increasing. Still fairly cold with negative numbers
along the Sheridan Cherry county borders. Most of the rest of the
area to see single digits. With increasing clouds and southerly
winds temperatures could end up between 5 and 10F instead of 2 to
5. May have to be updated with later forecasts but have trended
toward colder guidance. Minimal snow cover is another aspect to
take into consideration.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Friday will be yet another cold day as arctic high dominates the
plains with temps topping out in the 20s. Weak mid level
disturbance rides across S Dakota during the afternoon and could
bring a little light snow/flurries to northern Neb near the S
Dakota border. Lower level dryness may result in only an increase
clouds.

Warm front to lift through the area Saturday bringing warmer
temps. Much of the region should push into the 30s with some temps
around 40 across far sw Neb. Warm advection may be enough for some
light precip as a wave slides across the Neb/S Dakota border again
dry lower levels may be to much to overcome and will continue to
low pops and monitor.

Warm up is short lived as a cold front brings cold air back to the
region for Sunday. This wave also has some mid level lift which
will bring yet another chance for precip. Not much moisture to
work with, with precip expected to be light.

Tricky start to the week. The latest guidance has a yo-yo of
temps as active northern stream continues, occasionally bringing
a chance for light snow. In the wake of each system cold air to
spread south out of Canada. After a near seasonal Monday cooler
air not forecasted for Tuesday. This system is noticablly
tracking further to the south with MOS guidance some 15 to 25
degrees cooler. Will follow blend of new and old guidance which
does not drop temps as fast to avoid the flip flopping of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Northwest winds will decrease through the day and a BKN035 deck
will move southeast out of South Dakota across the KVTN taf site
this morning. Otherwise skies will be mostly clear with mid and
high clouds increasing from the west late evening or early morning
on Friday. Visual flight rules.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Power


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