Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
FXUS63 KLBF 262326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Mainly clear skies are expected tonight with light winds. There
could be a few patches of fog in low lying calm areas, but not
expecting enough to mention in the forecast at this time.
Otherwise sided on the colder side of guidance with the clear
skies and light winds.

Very warm air aloft (850mb temps 18C to 22C) will support highs
well into the 80s across southwest Nebraska, with upper 70s
across eastern portions of North Central Nebraska. Some concern
for elevated fire weather conditions Thursday, but it appears
winds will remain under 20 mph (even gusts), and humidity, while
low, will not be critically low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The long term period will continue to be dominated by unseasonably
warm conditions. In general temperatures will bounce around from
near to well above seasonal normals.

Ridge across the plains will result in very mild lows in the mid
40s to the lower 50s Friday morning. By afternoon temps will push
again into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Elevated fire conditions,
although winds less than 20 mph and lowest RH values around 20

Weak cold front/disturbance to push across the northern plains
Friday night and Saturday. Models keep best lift across the
Dakotas although the morning run consensus does have QPF into
northern Nebraska. While not high confidence with include some low
pops along the Neb/S. Dakota. Temps well above zero and lift index
values positive so precip type is all rain. Slight cool down for
highs on Saturday compared to Friday.

Sunday ridge begins to rebuild ahead of the next weak trough.
Highs warm a few degrees with mid 60s to mid 70s expected. By
Monday, Halloween, the next system will be pushing across the
central/northern Rockies towards the northern plains. A cold front
will push across the area, which likely will push through the CWA
by mid day. Temps a little tricky as slightly cooler temps behind
the front. Best lift across the Dakotas at this time with dry
conditions along/post front over the forecast area, so trick or
treaters should have a decent evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be mild with the EC digging
a low into the desert southwest. The GFS is stronger with the
system off the pacific NW coast. With the lack of model
consistency will continue a model blend with keeps the area dry
and seasonally warm temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR flight category conditions currently prevail across western
and north central NEB, and VFR conditions are expected to
continue through tomorrow. Latest satellite imagery shows high
clouds moving in from the northwest with FEW-SCT sky cover across
western and north central NEB. SFC plot at 6 PM CDT shows light
westerly winds across western NEB while northerly winds are being
observed across much of north central NEB.

Low confidence in fog development overnight/Thursday morning. May
see some patchy development with the greatest likelihood for any
development in north central NEB (specifically in the extreme
eastern portions of the forecast area). As such, no mention in the
TAFs. Winds will remain generally light overnight and are expected
to shift and become southerly by late evening. Winds will increase
across much of the local forecast area out of the southwest
beginning late Thursday morning. Winds will be strongest during
the day in the eastern Sandhills and central NEB. Sky cover will
remain low, SKC-SCT.




AVIATION...ET is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.