Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/


Much of the Midsouth will see some of the coldest temperatures
since early to middle April this morning. Current readings are in
the middle 30s to middle 40s across the region. The coolest
locations are along the Tennessee River in West Tennessee. Paris
is sitting at 36 degrees with several other locations reporting 37
and 38 degrees. The warmest location is Memphis International
where the temperature is still 49 degrees. Many of the colder
locations have already cooled to within a degree of their dew
points...but the warmer locations will likely continue to cool
through sunrise. Morning lows are expected to range from about 34
to 44 degrees...and will likely be the coldest temperatures we see
over the next week.

Temperatures will rebound today as surface high pressure and a
ridge aloft build over the Midsouth. Highs today should climb back
into the 70s across most of the region with middle to upper 70s
Sunday. We will be under Northwest flow early next week. Little
to no return flow is expected to set up Sunday into
moisture levels will remain low. A weak cold front will sink down
into the Midsouth Monday...but this feature will largely go
unnoticed unless you are paying close attention to the wind.
High temperatures may drop a degree or two Tuesday...but due to
the lack of moisture and a broad ridge still aloft no significant
cloud cover and no precipitation is expected. By Wednesday...high
temperatures are expected to approach 80 degrees in the warmest
locations in the Midsouth.

Guidance is in better agreement this morning bringing a fairly
strong shortwave out of the Central Plains...across the Midsouth
late Wednesday into early Thursday. The main limiting factor for
rainfall will likely be available moisture as return flow is
expected to be on the weak side and short lived Wednesday. Will
advertise low chance pops and hope for some much needed rainfall.
Rain chances look much better than they did yesterday.

Thursday...dry conditions will return and temperatures will turn
a bit cooler. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the middle 60s
to middle 70s.



/12z TAFs/

VFR conds over the next 24 hours. Light winds less than 5 kts.



TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton TN-Carroll-

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