Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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664
FXUS64 KMEG 222331
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated to lower pops north of Interstate 40 this evening and
adjust higher pops southward after midnight into north
Mississippi.

.DISCUSSION...

A distinct convective outflow boundary was noted along and just
north of Interstate 40, with smaller scale boundaries further
south where convection is initiating. As this northern boundary
advances southward this evening, winds should turn abruptly to the
northwest and convective potential should diminish despite the
synoptic cold front hanging back further to the north. Latest
satellite trends suggest the airmass behind this boundary has
become much more stable with a notable flattening or even
dissipation of cumulus. Therefore, have lowered pops
significantly to the north of Interstate 40 behind the outflow
boundary. Maintained higher pops further south this evening but
trended to a faster solution of ending pops a bit sooner than
earlier forecast.

The latest forecast updates and products have been issued.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

A cold front will continue to push south through the Mid-South
tonight. Currently, the front stretches from Paducah, Kentucky to
Little Rock, Arkansas. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms
is beginning to develop along the front. Although, there is a gap
currently in the line from Little Rock northeastward to Pemiscot
County. I expect the line to fill in as the front pushes southward
into the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Lingering convection will occur during the overnight hours and
into Wednesday. However by Wednesday afternoon, clear skies and
drier air should begin filtering into the area behind the
departing front.

Tranquil weather conditions will occur over the Mid-South over the
rest of the week into much of the weekend as surface high
pressure will gradually shift from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio
Valley. As a result, northeasterly surface winds will keep the
drier air in place making conditions feel very pleasant with
highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Toward the end of the weekend into next week, all eyes will turn
toward the remnants of Harvey and what path it takes. It could
bring heavy rain into portions of the Mid-South. There is much uncertainty
regarding timing and rainfall amounts but it definitely bears
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFs

VFR and MVFR conditions expected this period with frontal
convection mainly affecting TUP...while it departs MKL and MEM by
23/01Z. Winds will eventually swing northerly behind the front at
5-10kts with an isolated higher gust or two possible at MEM and
MKL before 23/06Z. Drier air will decrease winds and clouds
towards the end of the TAF period.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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