Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161738
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1138 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE... /issued 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

Surface analysis this morning places an arctic cold front from
Eastern Tennessee back through Central/Southern Alabama and into
the Northern Gulf of Mexico. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends
indicate the back edge of the snow band stretching from Selmer
back through Oxford and into Water Valley Mississippi. This
activity is expected to continue pushing east into this afternoon.
Will update forecast as needed as precipitation ends across the
remainder of the forecast area. In addition, wind chill readings
are already in the single digits below zero across many locations
as of 10 AM CST. Latest short term model guidance still indicates
below zero wind chill readings are expected across much if not all
of the Mid-South, especially into Wednesday morning and will
likely necessitate another Wind Chill Advisory.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Back of the snow starting to move quickly across the Midsouth this
hour. So have cancelled several counties on the back side of the
winter storm warning and adjusted the expiration times for the
remaining counties to either drop off by 9 am or noon. Most
locations so far have received 2 to 4 inches in the I-40 corridor
and points north.

JAB

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /issued 335 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

Tuesday through Thursday...second snow event for the Midsouth was
ongoing this hour...with the far northwest counties now starting
to see some clearing as precipitation has come to an end.
Generally snowfall amounts in this region have ranged from 1 to 3
inches. Farther south in the I-40 corridor light with occasional
moderate snow will continue into the 7-9am range...with storm
total amounts anywhere from 2 to possibly 5 inches. Due to the
quicker exit projected by the short-term models have segmented the
warning to end for some of the western counties by 15z. Have also
lowered snow amounts over northeast Mississippi due to the delay
of snow starting in this region. Most locations will end up with
a half inch to maybe some 2 inch reports across Tippah and Alcorn
counties. Temperatures continue to drop this morning with likely
lows across the north in the low teens. Due to the snowpack today
and a continuation of the arctic intrusion high temperatures will
struggle to reach 18F across the north and 25F south. Tonight`s
lows will fall into the single digits to around 10F. Though winds
will be tapering off feel that everyone in the CWA will
experience zero or subzero windchill...with a likely second
advisory coming out this afternoon. Subfreezing air will continue
into Wednesday under high pressure...with some locations seeing
above freezing highs on Thursday. Plenty of sun will start to work
on the snowpack both days with black ice issues at night.

Friday through next Monday...the current winter storm will be a
distant memory by Friday as south winds increase and temperatures
begin to rise closer to seasonal normals. Plenty of sun is
expected Friday with highs generally in the 40s to near 50F.
Models have been consistent in showing a pattern change this
period as a progressive Pacific trough crosses the southern tier
of the country. This energy will generate a surface low in the Texas
Panhandle on Saturday...deepening it as it tracks northeast
towards the Chicago area by late Sunday. Gulf moisture will surge
out ahead of developing cold front with both the GFS and ECMWF
indicating a narrow band of 100-500 j/kg CAPE. Strong low and mid
level winds of 60-70kts at 850mb and near 100 kts at 500mb will be
associated with this kata-front. That may prompt both a wind
advisory on Sunday for portions of our area as well as QLCS line
of strong thunderstorms. QPF amounts of 1 to 2 inches is favored.
Temperature highs could approach 70F in the southwest counties
Sunday....with widespread 60s anticipated. Behind the front highs
Monday will drop back into the 40s with clearing skies.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Set

Clouds have cleared at KMEM, KMKL, and KJBR while snow continues
at KTUP. Expect the snow to end over the next 1-2 hours at KTUP
and clear shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, some clouds associated
with an upper trof that will swing through the region late this
afternoon into this evening may bring conditions back to MVFR for
a short period of time at KJBR, KMEM, and KTUP. NNW winds of
10-12 KTS will continue through the afternoon before decreasing
during the evening hours to around 5 KTS except at KTUP where
speeds will remain between 10-12 KTS over the next 24 hours.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for Phillips.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for DeSoto-Tunica.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-
     Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-
     Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-
     Yalobusha.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Alcorn-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-Prentiss-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Union.

TN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Carroll-
     Crockett-Dyer-Gibson-Haywood-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for Benton TN-Chester-Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Henderson-McNairy.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Hardin-
     McNairy.

&&

$$



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