Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 201244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 1Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL CAUSE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE FROM THE SW BETWEEN
7-12 KTS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$






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