Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH NUMEROUS PICTURES AND RAINFALL REPORTS ARRIVING
BY SOCIAL MEDIA IN THE OFFICE. THANK YOU. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS
FALLEN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MARSHALL THROUGH UNION AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE 7 PLUS INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BACKBUILDING OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN RATES PER HOUR TRAINING OVER THIS
REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

SHORT TERM THROUGH TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN UPSTREAM MVC IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS PIVOTING AROUND
A CLOSED 500MB LOW IN INDIANA...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS...AND AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW. ALREADY AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD OF MCV.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER EAST AND ROTATE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONVERGENT
BAND FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH TRAINING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHARPENS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE LOW`S BACKSIDE TO SLIDE
OVER THE AREA. HAVE FURTHER REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO FOR TOMORROW.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
OPENS AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILL TO OUR EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREA SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...BUT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO...LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR VSBY. LATER TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF STORMS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR
CIGS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPROVEMENT WITH CONDITIONS BEFORE
04/18Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN T-STORMS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT JBR LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



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