Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 081048
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
448 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
A COLD FRONT FROM CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS OF
4 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NEAR PARIS TN....AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL DEPART
THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT BEST
RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MINIMAL IF ANY
IMPACT. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR THE TIME BEING.

A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LEFT REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION FREE FOR NOW.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 8 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY MORNING WITH OVERCAST CIGS ANTICIPATED. MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT AT KMKL WHERE THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR. THERE MAY
BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY AT TIMES REDUCE VSBYS AT KMKL.
MAINLY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER SITES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$


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