Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 260816
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD
LEVELS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN
MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LOW LEVEL MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE EXPANDED WESTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. FOG
MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
SHOULD EXIST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY TUESDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN AND THE UPPER ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE REMAINS A FEW DAYS TO REFINE ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID SOUTH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFIES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
CONTINUED DRY BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE MID SOUTH
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS ATTM THOUGH FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM AND
KJBR. IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KTUP WITH LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KMKL. VFR CONDS WILL RETURN AFTER 26/12Z-26/13Z. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS AFTER 26/14Z S-SW 5-7 KTS.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
     ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PRENTISS-TISHOMINGO.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







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