Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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788
FXUS64 KMEG 261740
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated to issue Heat Advisory and raise high temps and dewpoints.

DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridging has built back into the Mid South as surface
boundary lifts to the northwest of the region. Dewpoints continue
to pool to the south of the boundary with mid to upper 70s common.
Temperatures are expected to rise into the middle 90s in most
locations and will combine with high humidity to result in heat
indices above 105 degrees. The one exception will be across
northeast Mississippi and parts of west Tennessee where dewpoints
should mix down into the upper 60s this afternoon...which should
keep heat index values in check in these areas.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms will once again be possible
across northern portions of the region...with isolated convection
elsewhere. This may provide some relief from the heat in isolated
areas.

Updated products have been sent.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

Most of the Mid-South will have to endure one more day of hot and
humid conditions. The one exception may be Northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel where a weak cold front currently sits.
Models are showing showers and thunderstorms developing along this
front this morning. The front will gradually lift northward into
Southeast Missouri by this afternoon. The convection and cloud
cover will likely keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
Northeast Arkansas.

Elsewhere, only isolated diurnal convection is expected. The
isolated convection and limited cloud cover will allow highs to
reach into the mid 90s. Higher dewpoints are currently pooling
across the area due to the weak front that is stretched across
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. If dewpoints remain
in the mid 70s by this afternoon, heat indices could reach 105
degrees. Expect some mixing to occur across West Tennessee and
Northeast Mississippi, where the warmest temperatures will occur,
as the front lifts northward. This should keep heat indices just
below 105 degrees. Thus will hold off on a heat advisory.

The weather pattern will turn wet by Wednesday as a weak upper low
drifts into North Mississippi. Expect numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the area by Wednesday afternoon.
The convection will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Some of these storms could produce localized heavy
rainfall that could cause flash flooding.

The weak upper low will dissolve into a broad upper trof that will
sit over the Mid-South through early next weekend. Several
shortwaves will move through the trough and set off waves of
shower and thunderstorm activity. The convection and abundant
cloud cover through the period will keep high temperatures in the
mid to upper 80s.

By latter part of the weekend into early next week, the upper
trough will push east allowing for the upper ridge to begin
rebuilding into the area. Expect chances for showers and
thunderstorms to become more diurnally driven and isolated to
scattered in coverage by Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will
begin to creep back into the lower 90s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

Short term models suggest increasing thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon. There was enough confidence in coverage
to add VCTS to each TAF site. Coverage should decrease as we lose
daytime heating. Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the
early periods of the 24-hr TAF cycle, however increased low level
moisture from an approaching weak tropical low will cause
ceilings and visbys to lower to MVFR and possibly IFR levels by
tomorrow morning with more confidence in this occurring at KTUP.
More organized shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to
develop tomorrow morning due to the low moving into the area from
the south. However, better coverage will exist just after the the
end of this current TAF period.

JPM3

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Carroll-Crockett-
     Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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