Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Updated aviation section for 18Z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Upper level high pressure will continue to be the main weather
feature on the charts today. This upper level high, which is
basically sitting right over us, will actually retrograde westward
with time early this week. As we`ve seen the last few days, the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue to be low in any
given spot and will continue to be mainly diurnal in nature with
exact placement mainly dependent on the location of small
scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as low level outflow
boundaries and differential heating. However, looking at moisture
profiles, better moisture appears to be situated over western KY.
But, given the amount of instability today, a stray storm could pop
up just about anywhere. With hardly any flow to speak of, any storms
that develop will be slow moving or stationary and could dump some
heavy rain (PWs near 2") and maybe produce some gusty winds.

As the upper high begins retrograding westward on Tuesday, it
weakens as well. We will likely see a similar scenario on Tuesday as
today, although better instability does look like it will set up in
our western sections. By Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes
northwesterly as an upper level ridge amplifies over the northern
plains states. Meanwhile, an upper level wave develops to our
northwest on Tuesday and advances southeast toward the area, and
eventually impacts us by Wednesday, providing a more focused chance
for some storms, at least more coverage.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal today and Tuesday
with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s and
surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s. Many locations
will once again flirt with heat indices up around 100 degrees both
today and Tuesday afternoon. However, by Wednesday, that
northwesterly flow aloft will aid in bringing temperatures down a

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Above average confidence in the long term.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage Wednesday night, high pressure
at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the region dry and
slightly cooler and less humid through the entire long term period.

By the end of the period the surface high will have moved eastward
to the mid atlantic seaboard putting our region in moist southerly
flow. Latest model runs not showing a warm advection regime setting
up by the end of the period, but that could change with time so
will have to keep an eye on that.

Through Saturday temperatures will remain below normal as the cooler
high pressure overspreads the region, then moderate back to
normal by the end of the period as winds veer around to the south.


Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Diurnal cumulus clouds have been slow to develop this morning,
possibly due to slightly lower dew points and drier northeast winds.
There will still be some scattered cu this afternoon, which will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating by sunset. Some patchy
shallow ground fog is possible again late tonight and early Tuesday
morning. The slightly lower dew points should mean less in the way
of fog potential. Winds will be light from the northeast to east.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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