Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure has migrated southward and now resides over the Gulf
Coast states. This has allowed our winds to shift to southwesterly
and warmer air has been able to move into the region. We are running
10 to 15 degrees warmer at this hour then we were yesterday.
Again, we are dealing with zero cloud cover once again as moisture
is severely lacking.

On the surface charts, a weak cold front is poised from a low
pressure in Wisconsin and trails southwestward into IL, MO and KS.
This low will quickly move southeastward the rest of today and into
tonight, dragging the cold front through our region. Due to the lack
of moisture, we will see zero precipitation and hardly any
substantial cloud cover as well.

Behind the front, a cooler Canadian air mass will filter into the
region in association with a strong high pressure system. This will
cause temperatures to drop back down a few degrees but still
seasonable, the upper 60s to lower 70s. But, the dry weather will
continue through Tuesday night. However, we will see an increase in
cloud cover in advance of our next upper level trough which will
impact us on Wednesday/Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The main feature in the long term portion of the forecast remains
the mid week cold front and its passage and associated chances of
showers/storms. The models continue to insist the first half of
Wednesday will be dry, as the front, taking shape in the Plains
states, races into Missouri. H5 height falls across the upper
Midwest help dig a trof across that portion of the Mississippi river
valley, and allow the surface Low and front to approach our FA`s
doorstep by 00Z Thursday. This will spread small chance of
showers/storms across our northwestern tier counties Wed pm.

The front effectively makes its west to east passage across our FA
Wed night. Marginally supportive MUCapes, Showalters, and K indices
all support the inclusion of thunder, but wane as the night wears
on. The system will race on out/across the Ohio valley thru the
daytime Thursday, with High pressure at the surface, and aloft,
building into our Region from the west in its wake.

A clipper like wave/front will dip into the aforementioned ridge
late Friday night. The ECMWF says it`ll keep pops to our north/east
but the GFS/blend sneak a 20 pop into our extreme northeast, and we
won`t argue with it, but collaboratively blend it into the forecast.

Temp scheme before the mid week passage looks warm, well thru the
70s for Highs, 50s for Lows, then after fropa we`ll see a 5-10F
cooloff Thursday. Temps will moderate again as the higher pressure
system(s) take over after that, extending close to climo
norms low end 70s/50s into the weekend.


Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Some high cirrus clouds are about the only weather of interest.
These high clouds will exit our region early Monday. A weak cold
front will pass across the taf sites late tonight, accompanied by a
wind shift into the north. Winds will generally be less than 10
knots through the period. Just above the surface, winds may be close
to 30 knots this evening. This is close to low level wind shear
criteria, but not quite enough to include in tafs.




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