Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010455
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The passage of this morning`s wave and assoc convection coupled
with extensive high cloud cover continues to prevent new
convection from developing. 1 minute vis imagery shows thin areas
in the high clouds. So some warming into the lower 70s observed.
Best instability setting up across central into southern MO where
more sun is coupled with cooler temperatures aloft. The slight
risk area across MO/AR looks reasonable (from SEMO/SW IL
westward). Will monitor this area. Overnight after peak PoPs
through the evening, will taper off PoPs after midnight, focused
more across east sections. Sunday morning may see a lull, then
some midday and afternoon convective development possible. NAM
still most aggressive with Sunday activity and shows decent
instability for strong to possibly isold svr storms, best chance
over west KY.

Sunday night, a second lull. Then we bring in a chance of showers
across the area Monday with best chances southern sections as
energy and moisture push east across the region, diminishing
Monday night. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.
Model preference is a blend of the NAM and EC.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

From earlier discussions, there continues to be some variability as
to the impact of the Upper Midwest and/or Great Lakes shortwave
rotating south from the parent cyclonic circulation in the Hudson
Bay area of Canada. Some of the guidance incorporates enough
moisture to generate light precipitation Tuesday afternoon in the
cold air advection scheme.  However, blended guidance initialization,
along with weighting from the Canadian and ECMWF, suggest that this
feature should move through the WFO PAH forecast area dry. The
current forecast keeps this trend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave does appear to aid in the
sharpening of the Canadian low over the area by Wednesday, leading
to a small chance of showers mainly over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the WFO PAH forecast area.

Beyond that time, the western limb of the western U.S. ridge will
deflect most of the moisture and effective instability to the east
of the WFO PAH forecast area, limiting any chance of precipitation.

The main impact overall with these systems will be on temperatures
and dewpoints, as periodic intrusions of cooler and drier air will
infiltrate the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Convection has finally moved into the region late this evening,
but it does not pose much of a threat to any of the terminals.
Will keep VCSH going at all but KPAH for the first few hours of
the forecast just to hint at the possibility. Guidance has backed
off on the fog forecast, so will only have MVFR level fog at all
sites. The signal is still there for MVFR ceilings in the late
morning through midday. Into the evening, as the surface low
pushes east of the area, and the main upper trough moves through,
there will be another chance of convection near KEVV and KOWB.
Decided to play it safe with VCSH there again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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