936
FNUS73 KAPX 140724
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Beetle Juice E/W...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A rogue shower early this morning gives way to increasing
sun by ignition time at the burn site. North-northeast winds around
8-12 mph are expected to take on a more east-northeasterly component
by early-mid afternoon behind a Lake Huron lake breeze with localized
gusts around 15 mph. Winds turn light out of the north tonight. Burn
location likely just far enough inland too have too much lake influence
around RHs with minimums expected to bottom out this afternoon in the
mid-upper 30 percent range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 7 mph.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-2700 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (250.0-316.0).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  40  38  36  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  61  62  61  61
RH..............48  42  40  39  38
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.10  10  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  12  10  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....250 303 277 303 316
Ventrate Cat....FR  GD  FR  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........82 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 12 mph shifting to the north 9
                    to 12 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 400-500 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (30.0-270.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........31  25  20  17  17  17  18  19  20  18  17  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  59  57  52  50  48  47  45  45  43  43  42
RH..............41  42  47  56  61  60  63  68  68  73  73  79
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   6   6   6   8   8   8   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  10  10  10  13  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  8   7   8   8   9   9   12  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....270 188 131 42  30  33  32  39  40  52  53  54
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........39 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (54.0-467.0) increasing to good to
                    excellent (490.0-609.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........13     9      7      8      12     10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     45     55     59     61     62
RH..............82     79     57     47     42     39
20 ft wind dir..NE     NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
20 ft wind spd..12     12     13     14     14     14
20 ft wind gust.16     16     18     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....500    800    1900   2900   3200   3300
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
Transport wind..NE 12  NE 14  NE 18  NE 20  NE 18  NE 17
Vrate kt-ft.....54     113    347    575    591    558
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414019.0/APX
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov