Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210913
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
513 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Another quiet weather day for Monday with clear to partly
cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures. An approaching low
pressure system will increases chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, with showers lingering into Wednesday.
The remainder of the week is shaping up to be mainly dry, with
plentiful sunshine and below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 450 AM EDT Monday...Very nice day in store for this Monday
to start the work week. Surface high pressure ridge still
reaching the area, centered over the Mid Atlantic region will be
shifting eastward today. Light winds will become southerly
today. Warm air advection ahead of next approaching low pressure
system, therefore max temps will edge into the upper 80s. Should
be a good day to view the partial solar eclipse with proper
safety precautions, 240 pm will be peak viewing time and skies
should mainly be clear at that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Monday...More active weather is expected
beginning Tuesday afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow will
continue tonight. Low pressure system takes shape tonight over
the Great Lakes region as a deepening 500 mb trough moves into
the western Great Lakes. Pwats will increase during this time
period with low level moisture advecting into the area on the
strong southwesterly flow, nearing 2" by Tuesday morning.
Increasing shear profile expected with 500 mb jet nearing 50
kts. Surface low will pass North of our forecast area on Tuesday
along with trailing cold front which will be reaching our
Northern New York zones around 18z. Front moves east across our
forecast area and will be east of Vermont by 12z Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the
frontal boundary, starting in the Saint Lawrence valley and then
spreading eastward. Models are indicating Cape in the 1-2k
range, so will have some decent low level instability as well.
Storms will be strongest in Northern New York due to placement
of jet lining up with Saint Lawrence valley, good low level
0-6 km shear. Temperatures will warm to almost 90 across the
area. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are possible with
these storms, but storm motions should be fast enough to avoid
flash flooding. Hi res models depict a line of storms forming
and moving across our area between 20z and 04z. Storms should be
ending by about midnight. Upper level trough will pass north of
the region on Wednesday bringing some shortwave energy across
our area and will have to mention chance for some more showers
with this feature, though mainly confined to the higher
elevations. Cooler air will begin to move into the area later
Wednesday as well behind departing cold front, highs will be
closer to seasonal normals Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...The North Country will remain under
the influence of mid-level cyclonic flow throughout the period,
while high pressure will build at the surface. The period will
start with a surface front that will move across the region with
a chance for showers on Thursday. Behind this front, northwest
to northerly flow will settle in with the main 500mb trough
lagging behind on Friday and result in slight chance of showers.
On Saturday, surface high pressure will build in with drier air
as PWATs fall to 0.5-0.7 inches. Outside of a slight chance for
orographic shower or two on Saturday, expect dry conditions
through the end of the period with strong surface ridge
continuing to affect the region into Monday. Temperatures will
be slightly lower than late August normals throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Low level jet of 20-30kts over the
Adirondacks will keep fog formation at KSLK intermittent
throughout this morning. Obs at Whiteface supports this with
about 40kts being reported at the summit. Expect KSLK to see
periods of MVFR/IFR through about 10Z-11Z when winds begin to
mix closer to the surface.

KMPV expecting MVFR fog to develop with periods of IFR possible
as the jet will be weaker over this site.

Tuesday daytime will be VFR with increasing mid and high level
clouds. S-SW winds will increase to around 10kts, with gusts
around 20kts developing at KMSS and KSLK. Winds will subside
Tuesday evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM


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