Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210545
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide the North Country with above normal
temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week.
The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the
Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow
moving trough of low pressure impacts the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...Going forecast in real good shape
and only tweak was to match temperatures and dew points to
current readings...which happen to be anywhere from the mid 30s
to lower 50s.

Previous Discussion...
Late October weather doesn`t get much better than this, with
strong high pressure over most of the eastern CONUS dominating
the North Country`s through the weekend. Clear night skies and
abundant sunshine during the days can be expected, along with
seasonably mild temperatures. Tonight will be the coolest night
through the weekend as the high settles overhead and winds
decouple leading to temps ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s,
but as southerly flow strengthens Saturday/Saturday night as the
high shifts offshore, lows will warm to mainly in the 40s for
tomorrow night. Highs Saturday follow suit warming into the
upper 60s to low 70s, a good 15 degrees above normal for late
October!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface
high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and
Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected
with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more
amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week.
This will bring a more active weather pattern with several
chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come
Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over
the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night
into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and
decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above
normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with high pressure persisting over the entire Northeast.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance RA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV



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