Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 010336
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1036 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

MAIN forecast focus to be on this evening`s time frame as a cold
front continues to march across the rest of Wisconsin, followed by
the passage of a trailing shortwave trough.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis placed the cold front from eastern
Upper Michigan southwest through central Wisconsin to central
Iowa. Convections continues along this frontal boundary, followed
by a brief break in the rain, then more scattered showers and
thunderstorms were located over northwest WI in association with
the shortwave trough. Behind all this activity was a large area of
high pressure building southeast into the Northern Plains.

The broken line of convection along the cold front will exit
eastern WI early this evening. However, may need to linger a small
chance of showers through the evening hours until the shortwave
trough rotates through the area. Did not mention thunder as
instability to weaken once we get closer to sunset. Once this
feature departs, the overnight hours will be dry for the entire
forecast area. Lingering low-level moisture, coupled with light
northwest winds, may allow for a stratus deck and/or fog to
develop late tonight. May need to add more clouds to the forecast
as a result. Min temperatures to range from the mid to upper 40s
north-central WI, to the mid 50s over east-central WI.

The high pressure is forecast to build into the Western Great
Lakes region on Friday, providing for mostly sunny skies/modest
northwest winds/less humidity and below normal temperatures. Look
for max temperatures to range from around 70 degrees north and
near Lake MI, to the lower to middle 70s south.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Nice summer weather is in store for the area through Independence
Day as dry northwest upper flow is forecast to gradually become
zonal by Tuesday.

Temperatures will start a few degrees cooler than normal Friday
and Saturday and be a few degrees above normal by Sunday and
Monday. Relative humidities should be very comfortable as well.

Warmer and more humid weather is likely during the middle and
later parts of next week as upper heights rise and surface winds
become more southerly. There is some chance of a backdoor front or
two next week with the upper flow like this and some cool air not
far away to our north.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Showers and thunderstorms should end by taf issuance behind a
departing cold front and mid level shortwave that tracked through
the western great lakes. Behind these features mainly VFR
conditions are expected, however some high-end IFR or low end MVFR
cigs could work their way back into the area at times,
particularly across KRHI close to a deck of lower cigs and at KMTW
close to the lakeshore. An area of high pressure is forecast to
build into Wisconsin on Friday, bringing a return to dry weather
and VFR conditions to the taf sites through the weekend.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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