Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 230834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
334 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Discussion for this portion of the forecast will follow a little
later. Coding for forthcoming headline changes is below. NPW will
be out ASAP.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Models have come into better agreement with a strong fall storm
moving away from the region Tuesday night. Core of strongest winds
aloft still noted across northeast Wisconsin at 7 pm Tuesday.
Thus, the strong winds will continue into early Tuesday evening
especially across Door County where winds could still gust close
to 60 mph. The winds should gradually diminish later in the
evening into early Wednesday morning, although gusts to around 35
mph are still possible across northern Door County. Across the
north Tuesday night, some light snow is expected at times with a
light dusting of snow possible across Vilas County.

On Wednesday, winds will continue to subside as high pressure
builds into the region. High temperatures will be below normal for
late October, something that we haven`t seen since the first half
of September. The next system approaches from the northwest
Thursday afternoon and moves across the area Thursday night. Most
of the precipitation should fall as rain, though could end as a
little snow across the north. Upper low on the ECMWF swings
across the area on Friday, bringing continued chances of showers.
May be a little snow early in the day across the north. 500mb
trough lingers across the western Great Lakes region next weekend,
thus unsettled conditions are possible at times. Confidence is
low in the timing of features in the mean flow. Below normal
temperatures are expected for much of the period.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

dense fog is expected across much of east central and
northeast Wisconsin tonight. Conditions below airport minima are
possible in some areas. Northcentral and central Wisconsin will
have enough surface winds and dry air to keep fog from being dense
in most places.

The fog should dissipate a few hours after sunrise. Then VFR
conditions are generally expected Monday, though an upper level
disturbance could produce bring some showers and MVFR conditions
to the area Monday night.

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A strong fall storm is expected to move across the Great Lakes
region Monday night into Tuesday night. The latest model runs
have come into better agreement, thus high confidence that a high
end gale event will occur from late Monday evening into Wednesday
morning. The strongest winds are expected on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. Storm force gusts are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
evening across the coastal waters of northern Door County. It is
possible that this area may need to be upgraded to a storm warning
later today or tonight. Hazardous conditions for small craft are
possible Thursday and Friday.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ011>013-

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for


SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
MARINE.........Eckberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.