Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 272021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a quasi-
stationary boundary from northwest Missouri back through western
Oklahoma/west Texas and a dryline extending south across west
Texas. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the
southeast United States. Southerly winds on the back side of high
pressure is resulting in the advection of warm and very moist air
from the Gulf of Mexico with surface dewpoints in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. As of 2 pm CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the 70s to lower 80s at most locations.

Water Vapor satellite trends show a Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) moving across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley near
the Gulf Coast and several mid-level shortwave troughs embedded
within southwest flow aloft moving across the region. This has
resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms across
areas mainly west of the Mississippi river thus far today. Latest
short term model trends suggest best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be along and west of the
Mississippi river tonight. A strong thunderstorm or two producing
gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall is possible tonight.

Short term model trends indicate several more mid level
shortwaves will move through the region on Saturday, resulting in
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will become mainly diurnally driven for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Long term models
indicate an approaching front towards mid to late next week
resulting in higher rain chances.


18Z TAF cycle

Convection looks lost likely at MEM and JBR this afternoon...with
the strongest storms and greatest coverage likely within 2 hrs or
so before and after sunset. Included TEMPO TSRA to account for
this expectation. Temporary IFR conditions due to heavy rain is
possible...but prevailing vis should remain VFR. Based on radar
trends...prevailing thunderstorms should begin at MEM by 19Z..and
MKL by 22Z. Coverage of convection should gradually diminish after
sunset...but showers will likely continue overnight...and may
increase in coverage again by sunrise. winds will remain
southerly...generally 8-12kt with gusts to 20kt.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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