Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
609 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Updated to add 12Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/


A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will hang on for one
more day and provide the Mid South more record heat. High
temperatures will reach into the middle and upper 90s in most
locations again this afternoon. Increasing moisture advection
across far western sections of the area may result in a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms during peak heating but most
locations will remain dry.

An upper low over the Northern Plains will drop southeast across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the middle of next week.
This should help to advance a cold front southward across the area
late tonight and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can
be expected with the frontal passage. The strongest forcing and
deep layer shear remains northeast of the region...therefore not
anticipating strong storms at this time. Any rainfall should come
to an end by later Monday afternoon as the front moves south of
the forecast area.

Canadian high pressure will build behind the front through the
middle of next week with a reinforcing dry cold front expected to
move through the Mid South Wednesday night. Much cooler and less
humid conditions can be expected beginning later Monday and
persisting through next week. High temperatures should remain
mainly in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

Temperatures should moderate back to near seasonal levels by next
weekend as mid level heights build. Dry conditions should persist
into next weekend as well. The tropics may become active again by
late next week and beyond. This will need to be watched over the
next 10 days. Obviously way too early to determine whether the
region will have any impacts but something to watch over the next
week and a half.



12Z TAFs

VFR conditions expected through much of the period at TAF sites.
A cold front will move through the area tonight into Monday
morning. VCSH/VCTS possible at JBR and perhaps MEM late tonight
into Monday morning. Light SE/S winds will veer NW/N between 6-10
kts with passage of cold front.


.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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