Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 182307
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
507 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure currently located over the Mid-South will
continue to gradually shift east over the next 24 hours. This
afternoon, southerly winds have helped warm temperatures to above
freezing across all of the CWA except the area between
Caruthersville, Missouri and Paris, Tennessee. By tomorrow, all
locations will see highs above freezing. One more chilly night is
expected across the Mid-South as lows are expected to drop from
the mid teens near Paris to the lower 20s across Eastern Arkansas.

Even warmer conditions are expected for the weekend as southerly
winds will increase ahead of a developing low pressure system in
the Plains. Highs will range from the mid 40s to the mid 60s. In
addition, light showers or drizzle may begin to develop by early
Saturday morning across portions of East Arkansas, Northwest
Mississippi, West Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel due to a
weak upper level low that will be moving through the area.
However, the chances for showers and drizzle may linger into
Sunday morning thanks to warm air advection that will be occurring
ahead of the system that will be developing over the Plains. Will
carry only 20-30 POPS for now.

Chances for rain will increase by late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday Night as a cold front pushes in from the west. Can`t rule
out some thunderstorms occurring ahead of the front as there will
be some weak instability ahead of the front. Chances for rain will
continue into Monday morning especially for areas along the
Tennessee River in West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi.

Not much of a cool down is expected behind the front as the
airmass behind the front is from a Pacific origin rather than an
Arctic one. Expect highs in the upper 40s to the mid 50s with lows
in the 30s.

The Canadian and ECMWF models indicate another system may impact
the Mid-South by the end of the forecast period while the GFS
keeps weather conditions tranquil. For now have kept conditions
dry.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will become
light tonight and increase to 6-10 kts on Friday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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