Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 270521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE.... /ISSUED 910 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATED TO REMOVE LATE EVNING POPS.

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA IN THE PAST
HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF EVENING AND TONIGHT APPEARS DRY...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
BY 18Z-21Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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