Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 311111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

EARLY SEASON ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN. 08Z/3 AM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED THIS FRONT NEAR
A KANSAS CITY TO CHICAGO LINE. A 1038MB SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WERE TEMPS PREVAILED IN THE
TEENS.

UNLIKE MOST EARLY SEASON FREEZE EVENTS IN THE MIDSOUTH...IN WHICH
CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DOMINATE...TONIGHT WILL SEE A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION. AS SUCH... EXPECT LESS OF
A TERRAIN OR URBAN HEAT ISLAND TEMPERATURE INFLUENCE...AND LESS
TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY TO CLOUD COVER. WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
BY THE NAM TO RANGE BETWEEN MINUS 1C AN MINUS 3C... HAVE UPGRADED
TONIGHT/S FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AREAWIDE. IF WINDS STAY
UP AS EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO AN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER CLEAR SKIES.. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE MEMPHIS URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
WITH THE GROWING SEASON ENDED...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE TYPICALLY
SUSPENDED FOR THE SEASON FOLLOWING THE FIRST OCCURRENCE.
HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE HEADLINES /FREEZE
WATCH/ FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT IT IS PART OF THE SAME
EVENT. SEASONAL SUSPENSION OF FREEZE HEADLINES CAN THEN BE
EVALUATED FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND/S EVENT.

THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
AROUND THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH...ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. MILD TEMPS AND WARMER DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING MIDWEEK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT WASHES OUT UNDER WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUFFERS A BIT FOR THE LATE NEXT WEEK... AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MORNING FOG AT KMKL SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY. MEANWHILE EXPECT A BAND
OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000FT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. CAN/T RULE OUT CIGS BRIEFLY
DROPPING TO MVFR AT KMKL WITH ISOLATED SHRAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
VFR AND JUST MENTION VCSH. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG FROM THE NNW
AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-28 KTS BETWEEN
14-18Z. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 23-04Z. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT NW
WINDS OF 6-10 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







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