Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 282351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
651 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/


Raised pops across the northern half of the forecast area this


A shortwave diving southeast towards the Mid South in northwest
flow aloft has triggered scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the northern portions this afternoon. These
storms will progress southward through the evening hours and
diminish in intensity and coverage as they become outflow
dominated. Prior to this occurrence...a few strong storms will be
possible with wind gusts up to 45 mph and heavy rainfall. Areas
south of Interstate 40 should remain mostly dry outside a few
lingering showers.

The forecast and grids have been updated to reflect the ongoing
and expected weather conditions. Updates have been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

Northwest upper level flow will continue over the Midsouth through
Friday, coincident with light north/northeast surface flow over
the next several days.

Despite a weak cold frontal passage early this morning, mid to
upper 60s dewpoints still prevailed over the midsouth this
afternoon. Further north, 50s dewpoints were noted north of the
I-70 corridor in MO/IL. This dry air will partially spread into
the Midsouth on Wednesday. In the interim, scattered thunderstorms
will drop into areas north of I-40, aided by a northwest flow
shortwave and associated secondary front. This convection should
gradually weaken with low level stabilization toward sunset.

Appreciable rain will return to portions of the Midsouth Friday,
associated with midlevel trof dropping into the mid-MS river
valley. GFS shows low level moisture pooling ahead an associated
surface cold front, with dewpoints over northeast AR approaching
70F. Areas north of I-40 will will favored for thunderstorm
development, while north MS remains predominately under the
influence of an upper level ridge centered over the LA/MS coast.

GFS and ECMWF vary slightly with the strength and timing of
additional midlevel trof passage on the 4th of July holiday. The
GFS is shows a higher amplitude feature along with an associated
surface frontal passage. The ECMWF depicts a lower amplitude
midlevel wave with no surface reflection, and thunderstorms likely
ending by mid evening of the 4th.



00Z TAF Set

VFR weather is expected to continue the next 24 hours...with
light MVFR VSBY from early morning fog at MKL. VCSH/VCTS in the
short term with some gusty winds...otherwise winds will be light
through the period from the north and northeast.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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