Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241723 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THIS
TIME SO THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (24/18Z-25/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/12Z. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AFTER 24/14Z WESTERLY 5-7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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