Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 252330
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014


.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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