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000
FXUS64 KMEG 021130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
530 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH MIDWEEK...

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING WITH AN INVERTED TROF/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NRN ALABAMA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DRIER...COLDER AIR IS
WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH ON BRISK NORTH
WINDS. SEEMS LIKE THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
CLOSING WITH THIS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FOG IS COMMON ACROSS NE MS NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MONROE COUNTY INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TODAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TRAVELS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MIDSOUTH IN COOL NE FLOW. EXPECT SOME SUN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN NE AR TO THE UPPER
40S IN MONROE COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING THERE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING A RESPITE FROM
THIS COLD SNAP. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NW HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS POST FRONTAL AND STRONG OVERRUNNING
COMMENCES. 00Z MODELS ARE DISPLAY SIMILAR IDEAS THOUGH THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES. FAVORED THE ECMWF TIMING WHICH IS IN BETWEEN
THE FAST GFS AND MUCH SLOWER NAM. BY 12Z WED EXPECT THE FRONT TO
BE LOCATED FROM SAVANNAH TO CLARKSDALE. THROUGH THE DAY THE COLD
AIR WILL DEEPEN WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. ALL THE MODELS HAVE HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GOOD DEAL AS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW. THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS QUICKLY AND TRANSITIONS TO
SLEET. A LITTLE MORE FREEZING IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AROUND A TENTH OR SO BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. THERE
IS A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT TO OVERCOME SO IT SEEMS THAT
MUCH OF THE WINTER PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SLEET BEFORE
EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW. COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LESSER...THOUGH
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS...TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TN TO CLARKSDALE STARTING EARLY WED
FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND AROUND NOON ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY THAT THE WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE
MORNING WITH VERY COLD AIR BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN MORE SO IF THERE IS ANY KIND
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...00Z GFS KEEPS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECWMF HAS A SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALL POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

CIGS EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. IFR AND
LATER LIFR WILL REMAIN AT TUP...WHILE MVFR AND LATER IFR ELSEWHERE.
BELIEVE JBR WILL SEE VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE AT TUP...WITH
ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH TO THE OTHER SITES LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL START OFF GUSTY...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AND VEER MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AT MEM...JBR...AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

$$