Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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336
FXUS64 KMEG 290255 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
SKIES WERE CLEAR AT MIDEVENING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAD CLIMBED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...
BUT WILL SURGE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
DELTA OF EAST CENTRAL AR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. ADDITIONAL MINOR
REFINEMENTS WERE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A STALLED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO THE MID 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE
STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE NORTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A TAD ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE
WARM FRONT.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF STALLS
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF THE MEXICO RESULTING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MAJORITY OF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 KTS
OR LESS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...REACHING KJBR AND KMEM BY 29/18Z...AND KMKL
AND KTUP SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPORARY LOWERED VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
JBR AND MEM WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL RESIDE.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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