Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 180532
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 823 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

UPDATE...Evening Update.

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures look right on track...overnight lows should fall
slowly into the low 40 to low 50s. Rain has gotten lighter and
diminished in coverage...and short term guidance shows that trend
continuing. Lowered pops and rainfall amounts accordingly. Most
rain should be in North Mississippi. Another round of showers
should approach East Central Arkansas and Northeast Mississippi
around sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

A surface front has stalled this afternoon across central
Mississippi with rain falling on the north side of the front
across portions of northern Mississippi. This should continue
tonight as a shortwave over the Arklatex lifts northeast in
southwest flow aloft. This will help to lift the front further
north overnight. Likely pops will continue through this evening
before refocusing southwest in response to the approaching
shortwave late tonight.

A stronger upper level low pressure system now moving into far
west Texas will lift northeast through Thursday. This upper level
feature should help to initiate surface low pressure along the
front over east Texas on Wednesday which will lift northeast
across western portions of the Mid South Wednesday night and
Thursday. The stalled portion of the front across central
Mississippi should lift north as a warm front across the area later
Wednesday night and Thursday as the surface low lifts northeast.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southwest
sections by Wednesday afternoon...overspreading the entire region
for Wednesday night and Thursday. Modest instability across
portions of the warm sector...especially south of Interstate
40...along with increased deep layer shear may support a few
severe thunderstorms. The primary limiting factor may be ongoing
rainfall which may limit overall instability. Plan to watch
closely and maintain mention in the latest Hazardous Weather
Outlook. The upper low should lift northeast away from the area
later Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms ending from
west to east.

A warm surface occlusion should move across the region late
Thursday night. Southwesterly flow both surface and aloft
will remain over the Mid South Friday into the first part of the
weekend. This should keep an unseasonably warm and moist airmass
in place for Friday and Saturday. Mainly dry conditions are
expected on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Even
warmer weather is anticipated on Saturday with mainly lower to
middle 70s for highs. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as a subtle shortwave pushes across
the area.

The active weather pattern will continue through the extended
forecast period. A stronger upper level and associated surface low
pressure system will bring additional widespread showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday night and Sunday. A few of these storms
may be severe...depending upon the quality of the existing warm
sector. A cold front will sweep through Sunday night as the
surface wave lifts northeast of the region. The upper low will
remain across the region into Monday with rain showers continuing
over the area. Cooler temperatures will also filter back into the
Mid South for next Monday.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

Current VFR conditions over western sections of the forecast area
will last through the overnight hours before ceilings lower
Wednesday morning. Low clouds will remain over eastern sections of
the forecast area for the entire period. Scattered light rain
showers continue to move across portions of north Mississippi at
this time with rain expected to gradually spread north into most
of the forecast area on Wednesday ending by Wednesday evening.
Winds will light and variable overnight then becoming more
easterly at around 5 knots during the day on Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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