Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 300447 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 903 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

UPDATE...

No changes to the overnight forecast are needed. Left over
showers from an MCS that moved across Arkansas are currently
moving through North Mississippi. They will continue to decrease
in coverage over the next few hours. Most of the region will
remain dry through the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places Tropical
Depression Bonnie along the South Carolina coast, high pressure
over the Tennessee Valley and Alabama, and a weak cold front over
portions of Illinois, southern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. Water
Vapor satellite trends indicate a subtle 700 mb shortwave trough
moving across Arkansas. This has produced isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over central Arkansas. As of 3 pm CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 80s at most
locations.

Based on Short term convective trends and the HRRR, have decided
to add isolated showers and thunderstorms into the forecast for
through early/mid evening mainly along and west of the Mississippi
River. (especially along the I-40 corridor) Otherwise, the
remainder of the Mid-South is anticipated to remain mainly
rain free at this time.

Models indicate a potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across areas mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day and Monday night. A gradual
increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage is anticipated for
Tuesday and Wednesday as mid level heights weaken somewhat and
better coverage on Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front moves
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible through the period, especially
towards Thursday.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

Scattered to broken high cloudiness will prevail over the Midsouth
tonight. Sufficient breaks may occur toward sunrise for areas of
brief IFR visibility. Otherwise VFR to prevail through late Monday
afternoon. GFS and NAM indicate scattered late afternoon TSRA over
central AR, a few of which may approach JBR toward evening.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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