Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260847
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
347 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primarily a persistence forecast through the next several days,
as the Midsouth remains under the western portion of a 595DM 500MB
height ridge centered over southern Appalachia.

Daytime convective inhibition will remain weak west of the MS
River today and Saturday, nearer the periphery of the midlevel
ridge. Further east, NAM Bufr for Tupelo depicted 700mb temps
still a relatively cool 7-8C, with only weak capping around 850mb.
Inverted-V type soundings suggest some gusty wind potential with
any of the stronger thunderstorms today and Saturday. Given the
weak shear, storms should diminish toward early/mid evening.

GFS and ECMWF retrograde the upper ridge center to the southern
plains by early next week, with limited rain chances and
continued above normal temps for the Midsouth. By the mid to late
portion of next week, the upper ridge will amplify through the
central and northern plains in response to deep upstream height
falls along the west coast. Closer to home, weak northwest flow
will prevail over the middle and southern MS River valley, with a
weak cold frontal passage possibly bringing daytime temps down
near normal by mid to late week.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. Some
fog is possible to develop overnight mainly over the KMKL area.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday morning and into
Friday afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at around
5 knots for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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