Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260055
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to extend heat advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures along and east of the Mississippi river will warm
back into the mid and upper 90s tomorrow underneath the upper
high center. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will produce
heat indices of 103 to 108 degrees...therefore the heat advisory
has been extended until early Sunday evening. No other changes are
needed with the evening forecast.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Another hot and humid day is underway throughout the Mid-South. A
Heat advisory has been issued through the evening. As of 2PM heat
index values are holding just shy of advisory criteria for most of
the MEG CWA, however some stations such as Memphis and Union
City,TN are reporting heat indices at and above 105 degrees. Some
thunderstorms have developed in the northeast portion of our area,
just south of an almost stationary surface boundary. The main
threat with any storms that may form this evening will be small
hail and lightning. The HRRR is aggressive with continued
development this evening in the eastern portions of the Mid-South
and into the OHX CWA, while other short term models are far less
aggressive. The less aggressive approach makes more sense due to
the steep upper ridge in place over the region.

The upper ridge will begin to degrade tomorrow, allowing for a
surface front associated with an upper level closed low over
Southern Canada to begin to approach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. A few showers and storms could form well ahead of this
front, mainly impacting the western portions of the Mid-South
tomorrow evening. The best chances for widespread rain and storms
in some time will exist on Monday as the front advances from north
to south through the area. No severe storms are expected but winds
will be the main threat with any storms that form. Hail doesn`t
seem to be a threat due to very warm airmass extending from the
surface to about 600mb. Model soundings depict a near storm
environment with -20 temperatures only existing above 26,000 ft.
Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region behind the
front.

A steep upper level high, centered over the Four Corner`s region,
will result in upper level NW flow for the eastern United States.
This upper level flow pattern will provide extended relief from
the hot and humid conditions that we`ve experienced most of June.
Expect below normal temperatures from Tuesday through next
weekend. Long term models hint at a chance of showers and storms
next weekend as a disturbance embedded in the moves through the
Mid-South, otherwise we should remain mostly dry through next week
after the front clears the area by Wednesday.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites with the exception of
reduced VSBYS in late night fog at KMKL. Winds should remain light
tonight and become southwesterly at 7 kts or less on Sunday.
Strong ridging aloft on Sunday should limit convective coverage
areawide.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Crittenden-Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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