Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
858 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017


Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Clouds will
gradually increase from west to east overnight but have not
arrived yet. Will update forecast to adjust sky conditions for
overnight hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/


Picture perfect late Fall day with mild temperatures...a south
breeze and a good mix of clouds and sun. Temperatures this hour
were in the 60s...about 8-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Tonight through Tuesday...with the exception for a fast moving
shortwave bringing clouds and sprinkles tonight and early
tomorrow...models agree that the region will be dominated by high
pressure throughout the column. Thus...dry weather will be the
rule which on the unfortunate side will only heighten the area`s
rainfall deficit seen this season. High temperatures through this
period will average in the upper 50s to upper 60s...with above
freezing lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday through Friday...the GFS and ECMWF are slowly merging
their thinking with the approaching system next week...with more
diverging solutions by Friday in the system`s wake. Clouds will
be on the increase early Wednesday...but the stronger return of
gulf moisture/dewpoints in the 50`s appears less likely now as
both models indicate a gradual filling as it lifts from the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. WPC has
also picked up on this trend reducing the seven day QPF from a
half to less than a quarter of an inch. So the month of November
will end up with a precipitation reduction of roughly a half of
an inch for Jackson...nearly two-thirds for Memphis and
Tupelo....and almost three-fourths for Jonesboro.

As far as the forecast...have continued to lean more with the
Euro`s slower timing with light rain showers arriving between 6pm
Wednesday evening through Thursday late afternoon. A weak cold
front will clear the area out Thursday night and for next Friday
with the ECMWF showing a faster return of building upper level
heights. For now favored dry weather and temperatures closer to
climatology for the first weekend of December.



/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with ceilings
at or above 20 kft gradually decreasing to 8-10 kft by Saturday
morning. Sprinkles are possible across the Mid-South late tonight
through midday Saturday but no operational impacts are expected.
South winds will remain in the range of 10 kts through 08z at
KMEM/KJBR shifting from the north by mid-morning as a cold front
moves through the area. Wind shear may be a concern overnight as
1000 ft winds veer from the southwest at up to 30 kts.




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