Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KMEG 250415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1115 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 907 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this evening
with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few
isolated thunderstorms are over portions of north Mississippi at
this time. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible
overnight. Have adjusted pops overnight for some areas.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Skies are partly sunny across a majority of the midsouth with
convection becoming more scattered. Temperatures have been cooler
again today thanks to a weak MCV still churning right over Shelby
County. Only a couple locations across the area have reached the
105F heat index...otherwise a slight break from the high heat
continues. Midlevel convergence with this feature will help
sustain convection through tonight...with lingering cloud cover
keeping temperatures a degree or two warmer.

Monday through Wednesday...short term models this period show a
weak shear axis over the Ozarks/Midsouth between two upper high
centers in the east and west...while on the surface a weak cold
front will drop south into lower Ohio Valley. These features will
continue to keep the area somewhat unsettled. A few strong storms
will be possible during the afternoon/early evening...with gusty
winds and localized flash flooding. Temperatures will generally
run in the 90-95F range with heat indices about ten degrees

Thursday through next Weekend...not much change to the current
forecast this period. Long range models are in strong agreement
that better amplitude troughing will develop over the Mississippi
Valley between the distinct high centers. This will reinforce the
aforementioned front...pushing it into the northern Midsouth
counties. Rain chances will increase along and north of
Interstate Forty...along with a potential threat for a few severe
storms. Temperatures will range from the mid 80s to the low
90s...with lows staying in the 70s.




Patchy Fog is possible at all sites overnight...but looks least
likely at MEM. Tomorrow...thunderstorms are expected to be most
abundant west of the Mississippi River. Included VCTS at JBR after
17x and at MEM after 23z with no rain mentioned elsewhere. Winds
will remain southerly...generally less than 8kt.

Brief IFR conditions or lower is possible in association with any
thunderstorms as well as locally gusty and variable wind.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.