National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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FXUS64 KMEG 112046 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MILD DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
PREVAILING. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS...
BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT 3 PM TODAY... THIS
FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MO...THROUGH THE KC METRO...SOUTHWEST
TO WICHITA. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT PREVAILED IN THE 70S...WITH
40S COMMON NORTH OF THE FRONT.

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
THRESHOLDS LIKELY EXCEEDED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH. NAM
12Z AND 15Z 925 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 45 TO 50KTS IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS NORTH OF I40. THIS IS CONCURRENT WITH 3MB/HR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES. THE WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY... EXTENDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY NORTH OF MEMPHIS...WHERE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS RELAX CONSIDERABLY...AS
THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. WITH
LIMITED CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... HAVE UNDERCUT
MOS LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING UNDER RIDGING ALOFT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE VIA THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER
JET... LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH SPLIT UPPER FLOW... TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE GFS REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...AND HAVE GIVEN THE GFS A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHTING DURING THE WEEKEND PERIODS. BOTH MODELS
SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS
EVENING TO MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
AT TUP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TUP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT FOR
REMAINING SITES. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO 18-22 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-32
KTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12/12Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
