Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMEG 302329
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS... ONE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FEEL MORE LIKE LATE AUGUST THAN LATE SEPTEMBER
WITH VALUES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MEMPHIS
METRO AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TO THE MID 60S ELSEWHERE TONIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS WARM...IF NOT
WARMER THAN TODAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MORE
WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION RAISING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. WHILE SOME STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY IN THE HAIL GROWTH
REGION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE NWS SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR COVERAGE AREA IN ARKANSAS AND THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING AREA...THE REGION SHOULD BE CLEAR BY
FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT MAKING FOR A REALLY NICE FIRST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FOR MOST OF THE COVERAGE AREA. ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY DOESN/T
ALLOW FOR A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST AS FAR AS IMPACTS...IF ANY...
EXPECTED.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE KMKL AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO
5 TO 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.