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000
FXUS64 KMEG 310914
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$