Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF FROST ADVISORY AND TO INCREASE
CLOUDS AND POPS BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY DIVING SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH LEADING
EDGE OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS COUPLED WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
STAYING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI IN THE ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND SKIES CLEARER OVER A LARGE SWATH OF THE HOLLY SPRINGS
NATIONAL FOREST VICINITY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE FREEZE
WARNING HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 30S...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S EVEN AS THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IN THE 3-5AM
TIME FRAME BEFORE STARTING TO RISE SLOWLY BY DAWN AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD EAST. SO SET THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE FREEZE
WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY TO 7 AM INSTEAD OF 10 AM.

IN ADDITION...THE EXTREME NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 4 AM...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS THIS
POTENTIAL.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TWO CONSECUTIVE FREEZES POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME REPORTS OF GRAUPEL ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN RECEIVED BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THESE ARE LARGELY DRIVEN BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
ALREADY SHOWING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH WHICH
SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY AND GIVEN THE
ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S. FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA COVERED BY THE FREEZE
WARNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD FAVOR HEAVY FROST FORMATION LATE TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE DETAILS SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCATION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
VALID WATCHES/WARNINGS.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES RAPIDLY AROUND THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH PRECIP BEGINNING IN
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS THERMAL PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE PRECIP AS A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVIER PRECIP COULD SET UP. LOCATING THIS BAND AT THIS TIME IS
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
DOES NOT LOOK PROBABLE BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
A FEW SNOWFLAKES PRIOR TO NOON ON SATURDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THERMAL PROFILES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER
TO ALL LIQUID. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ISSUED FOR
MANY OF THE SAME AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. DO NOT EXPECT THE FREEZE TO EXTEND AS FAR SOUTHWEST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S AGAIN WHICH COULD
FURTHER DAMAGE SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

BY SUNDAY...A MODERATING TREND SHOULD ENSUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE BUT THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE. IN THE LONG-
TERM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOW AND
MID 70S BY MID NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
DEVELOPS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-SOUTH.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY
BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS. NAILING
DOWN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PRECIP EVENTS AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

DIURNAL CU AND TOWERING CU ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD TEMPORARILY
CLEAR THROUGH MID EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE THOUGH THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE AT KJBR AND KMEM. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING MODERATE SHOWERS. FURTHER EAST...LESSER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AT KMKL...BUT
THERE MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS AT KTUP ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MISSISSIPPI.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-UNION.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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