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000
FXUS64 KMEG 301947
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
247 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Only change from 24 hours ago is a bit more sun and warmer
temperatures across the far north...otherwise the area was
enjoying another Fall day. This hour a partly to mostly cloudy
sky was seen with a few sprinkles in northwest Tennessee. Winds
are generally 5 to 15 mph from the west or northwest.

This weekend...models continue to hold a strong agreement that
the current upper level low near Louisville will slowly drift
to to near Detroit by early Sunday. From this action the Midsouth
will experience a decline in cyclonic flow and the tapering of
low and mid level moisture. More sun will be the start a nice
warming trend for all Midsoutherners.

Monday through Friday...the aforementioned upper low is progged
to decay further early next week becoming an open wave across New
England. In the western U.S. the current deep mid latitude
cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will have moved into the Snake
River Valley early in the period...before turning northeast to
the Northern Plains. In between both systems heights will increase
over the Mississippi valley bringing continued dry weather and
above normal temperatures. Highs will range from 5 to 10 degrees
above normal through Midweek with afternoon RH`s dropping to near
30 percent. Winds will be light at the start of the period
becoming southerly and increasing ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday. This increase should bring 60+F dewpoints northward and
a few isolated WAA storms to points west of the Mississippi
River. Believe better rain chances will arrive Thursday when the
front crosses the region. The timing and intensity seen from this
GFS and EURO is better matched this run...with the EURO still
just a hair faster and bolder. After careful analysis severe
weather with the boundary appears marginal at best...as most of
the associated upper trough energy lifts into the Western Great
Lakes. A drier pattern will return next Friday with temperatures
remaining above normal.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF Set
VFR Conditions are expected to prevail for most of the next 24
hours. Mid level stratus will remain over much of the region with
enhanced cumulus this afternoon. Winds will be
northerly...generally 5-10kt today and after mid morning
tomorrow...less than 5kt tonight. Patchy fog may result in MVFR
or lower vis at TUP and MKL tonight.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$