Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 212329
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
629 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to add pops in early this evening areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Diurnally forced convection will linger into early this evening
before diminishing after 9 pm. Skies will clear out after
convection ends with some areas of fog likely developing again
after midnight and persisting through early Tuesday morning. Warm
and humid conditions can also be expected with lows in the 70s.

Updated forecast products have been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this hour, with a
cumulus field over the entire region. The sun is shining again in
full after being beautifully eclipsed by the moon over the past
few hours. Temperatures have recovered, with most locales now
experiencing mid 80s to lower 90s. Latest H5 analysis depicts an
upper high to the east of the Mid-South, with a trough axis
entering the Dakotas, while resultant southwest flow ongoing over
the local region.

A surface low will deepen across Wisconsin later today, supported
by the longwave trough aloft. This will produce a cold front which
will impact the local region beginning by early Tuesday with
showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon high temperatures will again
be in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday, but this will likely be the
last 90 degree day of the next week. With guidance suggesting a
moderately unstable atmosphere in advance of the front, with
SBCAPE values over 2000 J/KG by Tuesday evening areawide, a few
storms Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday could be strong
to severe. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms,
and some locally heavy rainfall could also be possible. The front
slows as it moves through the region, keeping showers and
thunderstorms possible through early Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees cooler on Wednesday as
cooler and drier air moves in behind the front. Highs will only be
in the low to mid 80s for midweek and continuing into the
weekend. Surface high pressure remains in control over the
region, keeping conditions mostly dry to end the week. The upper
trough axis moves further to the east by the weekend, with the
region becoming entrenched beneath northwest flow aloft. This will
allow for shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as
several weak impulses traverse this flow.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Set

VFR conditions should continue for much of the forecast period.
The only exception will be the potential for MVFR/IFR VSBY at MKL
during the early morning hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will develop with the best coverage affecting JBR and MKL. Feel
MEM and TUP could see activity but just beyond this period. Light
to calm winds overnight will become southwest through west at
5-9kts before noon. Stronger winds from convection may affect JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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