Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 171729
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

IR SATELLITE SHOWING PATCHY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
HOUR...WITH MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH A
FEW STORMS FORMING. ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WAS A LARGE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH A COOL 50F IN PARIS TENNESSEE...AND
66F OBSERVED IN ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 MPH.

FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN AN UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TIMING WILL BE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE ACROSS
THE WEST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING
WAS TO LOWER FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS LINGERING NORTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOW THE START OF LOW LEVEL WAA. BY SATURDAY
THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD TAKE HIGHS TO NEAR 90F FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED...AT LEAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST...WHILE THE
COMBINATION OF ODILE REMNANTS AND A DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED MORE WITH A WETTER
ECMWF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO BOTH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
TIMING. BELIEVE THE GFS IS JUST TO DRY AND FAST WITH THE
APPROACHING ENERGY.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE
SUNDAY...GIVING THE ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE EURO SOLUTION ALSO LINGERS ACTIVITY
INTO MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY SLOWS THE FRONT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. WITH THIS SETUP EURO
QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD SOUNDS MUCH MORE
REASONABLE...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL SLOWING WOULD MAKE THESE
INITIAL AMOUNTS TO CONSERVATIVE. IN RESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO WIDESPREAD 70S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO KJBR AND KMEM. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH KJBR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON SO MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KMKL AND KTUP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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