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000
FXUS64 KMEG 200553
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED TO SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. WE SHOULD BE RAIN FREE IN AN HOUR OR SO AND
NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN GROUND MOISTURE FROM STORMS...PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. MORNING LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY NORMAL EARLY/MID SUMMER WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. 12Z NAM
MODEL DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM
SOUTHERN KS INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. GFS FAILED TO INITIALIZE
THIS MCS AND APPEARS A LITTLE NOISIER WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD... WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40CORRIDOR.
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER TX WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER AL/GA WILL HELP ORGANIZE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS... A FEW OF WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST
MS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER DEEPER INTO THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN AR.

FOR THE WEEKEND PERIODS...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENTLY SO TO PRECLUDE
MENTIONABLE DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER. EARLY
NEXT WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE KMKL AREA
WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY TOMORROW...AROUND 5 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  93  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  20
MKL  89  65  91  68 /  30  10  30  20
JBR  91  70  92  71 /  30  10  30  20
TUP  91  68  91  70 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$