Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 210545
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE MIDSOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH OK...INTO AR.

NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM CONTINUES EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA...TO
ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI...TO MONROE LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL OUT THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD LIKELY INTO MEMPHIS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE
NORTH. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY STAY DRY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE SURGING WARM FRONT.

AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT OUT OF TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING A SHORT WINDOW BETWEEN MID-MORNING TO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES COULD SURGE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THAT PARTICULAR
REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THUS
LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROF WILL QUICKLY
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z(6 PM) SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY
EVENING. THUS A LINE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN
WOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING. THE ECMWF KEEPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AFTER THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT UNTIL THANKSGIVING WHEN IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND
GO WITH A COMPROMISE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22/00Z. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY JBR AND MEM. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN 4-6 KTS TONIGHT THEN VEER ESE BETWEEN 4-8 KTS AT
SITES ON FRIDAY AND SSE AT TUP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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