Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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753
FXUS64 KMEG 070402
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1002 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES TO COMPENSATE. THE REMAINING FORECAST
TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER
EASTERN TX WHICH IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
FLOW EVOLUTION IS DEPICTED WITH NUMEROUS INTERACTING
FEATURES. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE BUT THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND MIDDLE TN
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SHOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AT 8 KTS
OR GREATER WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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