Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251130 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles
center an upper level ridge over Middle Tennessee and Northern
Alabama early this morning. Low level moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico is advecting north on the back side of the ridge up into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is resulting in a continuation
humid air and surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. As of
4 am CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 70s at
most locations.

Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure will continue to
bring moist air up into the Mid South today. High temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be similar to yesterday. Heat index
values are expected to range between 100-105 degrees during peak
heating. Short term models indicate the potential for
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Decided to hold
off on the issuance of a heat advisory due to marginal heat index
values along with the potential for convective activity this
afternoon. Heat trends will continue to be monitored today for the
potential of an advisory if dewpoints remain high and convective
coverage is less than currently forecasted.

A continuation of warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico and
a slow approaching cold front over Missouri will result in
scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage across the area Friday
and Saturday. Long term models indicate a weak front may drop into
the area by early next week with a potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the northern third of the area and
coverage being more isolated elsewhere. Long term model consensus has
trended towards Florida and the Carolinas for the track of a
tropical system and keeping any potential impacts away from the
Mid-South. This will continue to be monitored in the event the
system tracks further west in subsequent model runs.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

Light winds and VFR to prevail under an upper level subtropical
height ridge. Density altitudes will remain high in the humid heat
of the afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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