Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 290848
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
CURRENTLY...Upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley is
lifting northeast while weak upper level ridging is spreading
into the Mid-South. Skies are mostly clear with mild temps
generally in the mid and upper 60s. Patchy fog has developed
across the region.
Today through Tuesday...Weak upper ridging will continue across
the area through the period. Afternoon heating combined with humid
conditions will produce enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon areawide though they may not reach 15
percent coverage. After any morning clouds burn off temps will
warm into the upper 80s with some locations touching 90. Any
convection will quickly dissipate early this evening. Weak high
pressure will develop over the region as TS Bonnie tracks into the
Carolinas. Surface flow will shift from light south this morning
gradually to the northeast tonight. This will bring slightly drier
air into at least eastern sections of the Mid-South resulting in
slightly cooler overnight lows tonight and Monday night and
shutting down chances for showers and thunderstorms across eastern
sections...generally Jackson to Tupelo east...Monday and Tuesday.
Will continue small pops along and west of the Mississippi River
Monday and Tuesday as weak upper level disturbances may push in
from the west per the NAM. High temps Monday and Tuesday will be
similar to today. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid
60s along the Tennessee River to upper 60s elsewhere.
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level trough and cold front will
move into the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase. High temps will hit the upper 80s again Wednesday ahead
of the front but by Thursday clouds and precip will help knock
temps back a bit. An overall increase in shear combined with
moderate amounts of instability could lead to a few severe storms
during this period.
Friday and Saturday...The southern part of the upper trough cuts
off over the Lower Mississippi Valley. As a result the cold front
stalls just south of the area and precip chances continue mainly
south of I-40. Highs will struggle to hit 80F over much of the
VFR to prevail through the early overnight. 00Z NAM and RUC
indicate a SCT to occasional BKN layer possible after 09Z at
around FL015, behind a weak elevated cold front / wind shift.
Where a broken cig does not develop, MVFR/patchy IFR visibilities
may develop. Confidence not necessarily great, given the weak wind
fields. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail areawide after 15Z.
NAM indicates some midlevel moisture Sunday evening, north of an
MEM/MKL line. May see a brief SHRA/TSRA late in the afternoon, but
too isolated to mention at this time.