Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251737 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Skies around the Mid-South are mostly clear this morning with
temperatures ranging from the lower to upper 80`s at 9:30 AM. The
need for a heat advisory today is still being assessed. Dewpoints
in the upper 70s should begin to mix out soon as surface
temperatures continue to rise, but if they don`t a heat advisory
is likely. No other updates to the forecast are needed at this
point.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...issued 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016
Another hot and muggy day, yet today should not be as bad as
yesterday. Expecting dew points a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. So no plans to put out an advisory, however, will have
to watch closely as a couple of degrees more in temperature
and/or dew point will cause a heat advisory.

Models in general agreement on the general pattern. Mesoscale and
short term models don`t agree much on how storms will develop
today and even where they will develop.

In general upper level pattern starts out with a upper high over
the Mid-South beginning on Sunday it starts to retrograde to the
west and northwest flow develops aloft by Tuesday. At the surface
we have the weak frontal system still over the area, yet there
aren`t many clouds associated with it. However, it may be the
trigger for some afternoon isolated thunderstorms today. By Monday
a surface high from the north begins to push into the area being
ushered in by a frontal system. It`s slow moving and finally gets
through by Tuesday evening. And by Wednesday lower temperatures
and dew points move into the Mid-South. This should last to the
end of next week, with temperatures below normal (normal is around
90).
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Greatest pooling of low level moisture will occur near the TN
valley this afternoon, with isolated TSRA favoring primarily MKL
and TUP. Surface winds will remain light areawide. Could see
localized IFR conditions develop at MKL late tonight, especially
if additional rainfall occurs in the area this afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-
     Mississippi.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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