Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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