National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heat Wave and Severe Thunderstorms this Independence Day

A prolonged, dangerous heat wave will persist through the Independence Day weekend across the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Numerous temperature records are expected. Clusters of severe thunderstorms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic this Independence Day, with potential for widespread damaging winds. Additional severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field (KHEF)

Lat: 38.72°NLon: 77.52°WElev: 194ft.

Fair

97°F

36°C

Humidity 51%
Wind Speed Vrbl 3 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint 76°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index111°F (44°C)
Last update 4 Jul 12:56 pm EDT
Extended Forecast for

2 Miles NW Bull Run VA

Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm
Click here for hazard details and duration
Extreme Heat Warning
  •  
    Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm

    NOW until 9:00pm Sat

    Extreme Heat Warning

  • Independence Day

    High: 100 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms

  • Tonight

    Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 4am. Low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 72 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms
    then Chance
    Showers and
    Patchy Fog

  • Sunday

    Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 96 °F

    Patchy Fog
    then Showers
    Likely

  • Sunday Night

    Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 69. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 69 °F

    Showers then
    Chance
    Showers

  • Monday

    Monday: A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 86. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    High: 86 °F

    Chance
    Showers then
    Showers

  • Monday Night

    Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    Low: 67 °F

    Showers

  • Tuesday

    Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    High: 84 °F

    Slight Chance
    Showers then
    Showers
    Likely

  • Tuesday Night

    Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Low: 67 °F

    Showers
    Likely

Detailed Forecast

Independence Day
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Sunny early, then becoming mostly cloudy and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 110. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 4am. Low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 69. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 86. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
2 Miles NW Bull Run VA
 38.81°N 77.55°W (Elev. 253 ft)
Last Update:
12:33 pm EDT Jul 4, 2026
Forecast Valid:
1pm EDT Jul 4, 2026-6pm EDT Jul 10, 2026
 
Forecast Discussion
 
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Additional Resources

Radar & Satellite Image

Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data

Hourly Weather Forecast

National Digital Forecast Database

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

High Temperature

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Chance of Precipitation