National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heat Wave and Severe Thunderstorms this Independence Day

A prolonged, dangerous heat wave will persist through the Independence Day weekend across the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic. Numerous temperature records are expected. Clusters of severe thunderstorms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic this Independence Day, with potential for widespread damaging winds. Additional severe thunderstorms in the Great Plains. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field (KHEF)

Lat: 38.72°NLon: 77.52°WElev: 194ft.

Fair

94°F

34°C

Humidity 54%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.00 in (1016.1 mb)
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index106°F (41°C)
Last update 4 Jul 10:56 am EDT
Extended Forecast for

2 Miles NW Bull Run VA

Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm
Click here for hazard details and duration
Extreme Heat Warning
  •  
    Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 09:00pm

    NOW until 9:00pm Sat

    Extreme Heat Warning

  • Independence Day

    High: 99 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms

  • Tonight

    Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then isolated showers between 2am and 3am. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 72 °F

    Severe
    Thunderstorms
    then
    Scattered
    Showers

  • Sunday

    Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 94 °F

    Sunny then
    Showers
    Likely

  • Sunday Night

    Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Low around 70. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 70 °F

    Showers

  • Monday

    Monday: A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 87. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    High: 87 °F

    Chance
    Showers then
    Showers

  • Monday Night

    Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    Low: 68 °F

    Showers

  • Tuesday

    Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    High: 85 °F

    Slight Chance
    Showers then
    Chance
    T-storms

  • Tuesday Night

    Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Low: 67 °F

    Chance
    T-storms then
    Chance
    Showers

Detailed Forecast

Independence Day
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Increasing clouds and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 111. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then isolated showers between 2am and 3am. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 103. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Low around 70. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 87. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
2 Miles NW Bull Run VA
 38.81°N 77.55°W (Elev. 253 ft)
Last Update:
10:52 am EDT Jul 4, 2026
Forecast Valid:
11am EDT Jul 4, 2026-6pm EDT Jul 10, 2026
 
Forecast Discussion
 
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Additional Resources

Radar & Satellite Image

Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data

Hourly Weather Forecast

National Digital Forecast Database

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

High Temperature

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Chance of Precipitation