Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Genesee County Airport (KGVQ)

Lat: 43.03°NLon: 78.17°WElev: 914ft.

Partly Cloudy

69°F

21°C

Humidity 61%
Wind Speed S 12 G 17 mph
Barometer 29.66 in (1003.9 mb)
Dewpoint 55°F (13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 17 Jun 10:56 am EDT
Extended Forecast for

3 Miles SSE Pavilion NY

  • Today

    Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    High: 74 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Tonight

    Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am.  Low around 59. Breezy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 59 °F

    Showers
    Likely then
    Showers and
    Breezy

  • Thursday

    Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 74 °F

    Showers
    Likely and
    Breezy

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

    Low: 56 °F

    Partly Cloudy
    and Breezy
    then Partly
    Cloudy

  • Juneteenth

    Juneteenth: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    High: 71 °F

    Mostly Sunny
    then Chance
    Showers and
    Breezy

  • Friday Night

    Friday Night: A chance of showers before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 11 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Low: 53 °F

    Chance
    Showers then
    Mostly Clear

  • Saturday

    Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

    High: 69 °F

    Sunny

  • Saturday Night

    Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind 8 to 13 mph.

    Low: 53 °F

    Mostly Clear

  • Sunday

    Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

    High: 72 °F

    Mostly Sunny

Detailed Forecast

Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Low around 59. Breezy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Juneteenth
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind 8 to 13 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
3 Miles SSE Pavilion NY
 42.83°N 77.96°W (Elev. 1099 ft)
9:57 am EDT Jun 17, 2026
11am EDT Jun 17, 2026-6pm EDT Jun 23, 2026
 
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Additional Resources

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