Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Genesee County Airport (KGVQ)

Lat: 43.03°NLon: 78.17°WElev: 914ft.

Fair

62°F

17°C

Humidity 70%
Wind Speed S 5 mph
Barometer 29.75 in (1007.0 mb)
Dewpoint 52°F (11°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 16 Jun 11:56 pm EDT
Extended Forecast for

2 Miles SSW Pavilion NY

  • Overnight

    Overnight: A chance of showers between 2am and 5am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 6 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    Low: 56 °F

    Chance
    Showers

  • Wednesday

    Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. South wind 8 to 13 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 74 °F

    Chance
    Showers

  • Wednesday Night

    Wednesday Night: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am.  Low around 58. Light south wind becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Low: 58 °F

    Showers

  • Thursday

    Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  High near 75. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 75 °F

    Showers and
    Breezy

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: A chance of showers before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    Low: 56 °F

    Chance
    Showers and
    Breezy then
    Partly Cloudy

  • Juneteenth

    Juneteenth: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    High: 70 °F

    Mostly Sunny
    then Chance
    T-storms and
    Breezy

  • Friday Night

    Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 10 to 14 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Low: 53 °F

    Chance
    T-storms then
    Partly Cloudy

  • Saturday

    Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 14 to 17 mph.

    High: 69 °F

    Mostly Sunny

  • Saturday Night

    Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

    Low: 53 °F

    Partly Cloudy

Detailed Forecast

Overnight
A chance of showers between 2am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. South wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Low around 58. Light south wind becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 75. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Juneteenth
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 14 to 17 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
A chance of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
2 Miles SSW Pavilion NY
 42.85°N 78.01°W (Elev. 1096 ft)
9:57 pm EDT Jun 16, 2026
12am EDT Jun 17, 2026-6pm EDT Jun 23, 2026
 
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Additional Resources

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