Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport (KROC)

Lat: 43.12°NLon: 77.68°WElev: 558ft.

Mostly Cloudy

61°F

16°C

Humidity 78%
Wind Speed SE 8 mph
Barometer 29.73 in (1007.0 mb)
Dewpoint 54°F (12°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 16 Jun 10:54 pm EDT
Extended Forecast for

3 Miles SSE Churchville NY

  • Tonight

    Tonight: A chance of showers, mainly between 3am and 5am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 3 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

    Low: 56 °F

    Chance
    Showers

  • Wednesday

    Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm.  Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then becoming sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 76 °F

    Chance
    Showers

  • Wednesday Night

    Wednesday Night: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am.  Low around 59. Light south wind becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Low: 59 °F

    Showers

  • Thursday

    Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  High near 78. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 78 °F

    Breezy.
    Showers then
    Chance
    Showers

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

    Low: 57 °F

    Partly Cloudy

  • Juneteenth

    Juneteenth: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    High: 74 °F

    Mostly Sunny
    then Chance
    T-storms and
    Breezy

  • Friday Night

    Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 11 to 13 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Low: 54 °F

    Chance
    T-storms then
    Partly Cloudy

  • Saturday

    Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

    High: 72 °F

    Mostly Sunny

  • Saturday Night

    Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

    Low: 54 °F

    Partly Cloudy

Detailed Forecast

Tonight
A chance of showers, mainly between 3am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then becoming sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Low around 59. Light south wind becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. High near 78. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Juneteenth
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 74.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
A chance of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
3 Miles SSE Churchville NY
 43.08°N 77.85°W (Elev. 600 ft)
9:57 pm EDT Jun 16, 2026
11pm EDT Jun 16, 2026-6pm EDT Jun 23, 2026
 
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Additional Resources

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Hourly Weather Forecast

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