National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather Threats Across the Plains; Dangerous Heat and Wildfire Concerns for the West; Watching the Tropics

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Central Plains accompanied by damaging wind gusts and large hail. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead to instances of flash flooding from the Plains and mid-Atlantic regions. The heavy rainfall threat continues across Florida and across the northern Gulf as we monitor a tropical disturbance tracking westward. Critical fire weather for the Great Basin. Read More >

Hazardous Weather Conditions

Current conditions at

Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport (KCHO)

Lat: 38.14°NLon: 78.46°WElev: 640ft.

Overcast

84°F

29°C

Humidity 70%
Wind Speed E 6 mph
Barometer 30.04 in (1016.5 mb)
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index90°F (32°C)
Last update 15 Jul 5:53 pm EDT
Extended Forecast for

2 Miles ESE Lake Monticello VA

Flood Watch July 15, 06:44pm until July 16, 12:00am
Click here for hazard details and duration
Flood Watch
  •  
    Flood Watch July 15, 06:44pm until July 16, 12:00am

    NOW until 12:00am Wed

    Flood Watch

  • Tonight

    Low: 72 °F

    Chance
    T-storms

  • Wednesday

    Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 89 °F

    Slight Chance
    T-storms then
    T-storms
    Likely

  • Wednesday Night

    Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 74 °F

    T-storms
    Likely then
    Slight Chance
    T-storms

  • Thursday

    Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 92 °F

    Mostly Sunny
    then Chance
    T-storms

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    Low: 74 °F

    Chance
    T-storms then
    Partly Cloudy

  • Friday

    Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

    High: 92 °F

    Mostly Sunny
    then T-storms
    Likely

  • Friday Night

    Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Low: 72 °F

    T-storms
    Likely then
    Mostly Cloudy

  • Saturday

    Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    High: 88 °F

    Partly Sunny
    then Chance
    T-storms

Detailed Forecast

Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 102. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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Forecast Area
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ABOUT THIS FORECAST

 
Point Forecast:
2 Miles ESE Lake Monticello VA
 37.92°N 78.3°W (Elev. 299 ft)
Last Update:
6:04 pm EDT Jul 15, 2025
Forecast Valid:
6pm EDT Jul 15, 2025-6pm EDT Jul 22, 2025
 
Forecast Discussion
 
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Additional Resources

Radar & Satellite Image

Link to Local Radar Data Link to Satellite Data

Hourly Weather Forecast

National Digital Forecast Database

National Digital Forecast Database Maximum Temperature Forecast

High Temperature

National Digital Forecast Database Weather Element Forecast

Chance of Precipitation