Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210751 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 351 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure becomes anchored along or just off the Carolina coast through this weekend. A weak cold front will push across the area Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Latest analysis indicating ~1026mb sfc high pressure centered over eastern NC. WNW flow prevails aloft as the local area is situated in between a ridge over the deep south and a trough over the Canadian Maritimes. Clear and pleasant this morning with cool temperatures (though not as cool as yesterday at this time). Readings are coolest over interior NE NC and SE VA (50-55F) closest to the sfc high and are generally a little warmer elsewhere ranging mostly in the 50s to around 60F. For today, the sfc high more or less remains in place or shifts just slightly off the NC coast by aftn. This will result in more of a southerly flow developing around the backside of the sfc high, allowing aftn highs to climb several degrees above what occurred on Fri. Highs will avg in the mid to upper 80s over the Piedmont and central VA, with 80-85F closer to the coast (locally upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). While dew pts rise compared to the past few days, it will still be pleasant as they are expected to avg in the mid/upper 50s to lower 60s this aftn. May see some scattered clouds this aftn but it will still avg mostly sunny. Bufkit soundings suggest some mid level clouds will also be possible tonight, but overall it would be partly cloudy at most. Warmer with a light SSW flow yielding overnight mins mostly ranging from the lower to mid 60s, though some upper 50s will likely occur over interior southern VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Turning a bit warmer Sunday with increasing S flow...resulting in highs 85-90F inland and low to mid 80s near the coast. Sfc hi pres becomes elongated ENE-WSW from the wrn Atlantic to the SE CONUS and ridge aloft flattens out by Mon as an upper trough moves E from the Great lakes to the St Lawrence Valley. Locally it will be very warm w/ SW winds and partly to mostly sunny conditions. PoPs remain aob 10% through the day with highs 85-90F for all areas. A cold front will be entering the mountains late which may throw a bit more significant cloudiness into the Piedmont by late in the day. The front will be weakening significantly as it crosses the Mtns Mon evening with best moisture and dynamics staying well to our N. Will have 20-30% PoPs confined to the NE sections of the area for ISOLD/SCT SHRAs- tstms, with PoPs at or below 14% elsewhere. Lows Mon night ranging from around 60F NW to the upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Mainly dry through the period other than a minimal chance for rain late Thu w/ a second (weakening) cold front). Dry wx and temperatures averaging aoa normals will prevail through the extended forecast period. Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s...Wed mainly 80-85F...Thu and Fri in the m-u80s. Lows Mon night in the u50s-m60s...m50s-l60s Tue night...l-m60s Wed night and m-u60s Thu night. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions through the period. There is some patchy ground fog developing over interior sections of far SE VA and NE NC but this is not expected to impact any of the main terminals. High pressure is located along the coast of SE VA/NE NC and will drift off the coast this aftn. Light SSW winds (less than 10kt) are expected today with mainly clear skies. Outlook...High pressure remains in control through the remainder of the weekend. Southerly flow increases a bit but still only in the 10-15kt range Sun/Mon ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will cross the area late Monday into early Tuesday; some mid level clouds are likely, but little to no rain is expected with the front. Behind the front, high pressure builds back into the region with N to NE winds. Expect mostly VFR conditions through this extended period. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered over ern NC. Winds have now veered to the SW over the waters and have increased to 10-15 kt (highest over the ern Ches Bay). A few gusts to 20 kt have been noted at elevated sites on the bay during the past few hours. Seas are still 5-6 N/7-8 ft S of the VA-NC border due to swell from what was TC Humberto. Waves are ~2 ft over most of the Ches Bay, with 3 ft waves at the mouth of the bay. Seas are expected to slowly diminish during the day today before falling below 5 ft this aftn-evening (from N to S). SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 20z/4 PM, and until 23z/7 PM for the srn coastal waters. 5 ft seas may persist through the late evening/early overnight hours for areas S of the VA-NC border, but not confident enough to extend the SCA for just a few hours attm. The area of high pressure moves offshore this weekend. Expect SW winds to diminish to ~10 kt by sunrise and remain around 10 kt through much of the day today. Winds turn to the S and increase slightly (with sustained winds of 12-15 kt) by this evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the aforementioned high and a developing lee trough. A few gusts to 20 kt are likely on the Ches Bay (mainly at elevated sites) from 00-06z Sun. Winds turn to the SW tonight and diminish to ~10 kt by 12z Sun. Winds again increase Sunday evening and persist through the day on Monday (S-SW 15-17 knots over the bay/15-20 kt over the ocean...highest N) before a weak cold front crosses the region late Monday into Tuesday. Not anticipating the need for SCAs today/tonight. However, there is a chc of SCAs late Sun night-Mon...mainly over the nrn coastal waters where local wind probs are showing an 80% chc of 25 kt wind gusts at Buoy 44009. There is also a decent chc of frequent 20 kt gusts over the nrn Ches Bay (from 00-12z Mon), so there is the potential for a short duration SCA there as well. Sub-SCA are conditions expected with the FROPA Mon night-Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... A high rip current risk will continue through this evening due to increased wave activity and near shore-normal swells. Use extra caution if visiting the beach this weekend and always heed the advice of lifeguards. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...CMF/LKB MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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