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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241922
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds over New England through tonight. A
warm front pushes north across the area Tuesday. Low pressure
approaches the Mid Atlantic coast from the southeast Tuesday
night, then pushes offshore Wednesday. A cold front moves into
the middle Atlantic Wednesday night, then stalls across the far
southern part of the local area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Showers and isolated storms have developed across SE VA due to
the coastal front convergence and afternoon heating. Expect this
precip to diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, the wedge continues across the middle Atlantic,
likely being reinforced by the rain falling across MD and PA,
with low stratus having a tough time scouring out across the
interior north. The wedge should persist through the night but
will gradually start to break down somewhat as the parent high
over New England shifts offshore. As such, will maintain cloudy
conditions across the north and Piedmont, although the SE part
of the forecast area should remain clear/partly cloudy. Between
the drizzle and the light rain associated with the retreating
850mb warm front/warm advection, will need to maintain high
chance pops across the north, quickly tapering to chc/schc
south. Lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Low level flow turns more southeasterly as low pressure off the
NC/SC coast moves northwest toward the Outer Banks on Tuesday.
NWP suggest that the moisture associated with this system will
start to impact the SE part of the forecast area Tue aftn/night.
Other than some scattered showers/storms am not expecting much
more from this system as it is forecast to remain just offshore
with the best lift and moisture remaining offshore or to the
south. Meanwhile, moisture associated with the Great Lakes
trough will remain west of the region, but given the increased
sunshine due to the wedge breaking down there will be at least
some scattered afternoon/evening diurnal showers and storms.
Better chances for showers/storms late Wed night through
Thursday as the Great Lakes upper trough moves east allowing the
sfc cold front to move through the area. The frontal boundary
slows down and stalls out over the SE part of the forecast area
Wed night into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
aloft. Meanwhile, an upper wave moves across the area in the SW
flow aloft. This will allow for Thursday to be a generally rainy
day and have gone likely pops across much of the forecast area.
Highs on Tuesday rise into the 80s most areas and mid-upr 80s on
Wednesday. Rain and clouds combined with developing NE flow will
yield temps back into the upr 60s NW and mid 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

Forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the
area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of
the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker
to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the
day on Friday, so did lower pop slightly Friday afternoon, but
did maintain a slight chance mention for all but far NW piedmont
zones. Weekend looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least
relatively speaking...as temperatures look to fall back toward
climo normal w/high pressure building over the region. Highs
generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through
Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly each day late Friday
into the weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland
and upper 60s to low 70s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

IFR conditions continue at all sites except ORF and ECG as the
wedge remains in place. Expect IFR conditions to persist through
tonight at RIC/SBY and perhaps PHF while VFR or MVFR conditions
will continue at ORF/ECG. The wedge breaks down by Tuesday so
all sites should become VFR by late Tue morning.

Outlook...Scattered showers/storms possible Tue afternoon,
however a better chance for showers/storms Wed afternoon-Thu as
a cold front moves into the middle Atlantic and stalls out by
Thursday. Could see IFR conditions on Thursday similar to today
as another wedge establishes itself.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Latest observations show easterly flow of 15-25 knots across the
marine area. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the
rivers, bay, and coastal waters. Waves and seas are elevated as well
while easterly flow persists today. Winds should begin to subside
this evening and overnight as parent high pressure across New
England, responsible for our easterly flow, begins to move away to
the east and relax the local pressure gradient a bit. As this
transition takes place during the overnight hours, our winds will
take on a southeasterly component for Tuesday into Wednesday but
will retain at least some onshore character through about mid week.
Small craft conditions are expected to continue for the coastal
zones through at least Wednesday as large seas will be slow to
subside after the wind takes on a greater southerly component by mid
week.

The latter half of the week looks somewhat unsettled as a cold
front with associated showers and storms approaches the area
late Wednesday and into Thursday, allowing local winds to
briefly take on a northerly component in its wake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Onshore winds do increase across the entire region later today
as strong sfc hi pres remains centered invof New England. Tidal
anomalies will once again increase at bit for much of the area,
with possible shallow/minor flooding late tonight through Tue
(esp for counties in VA/MD invof middle and upper Ches Bay).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635-
     636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...AKQ