Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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798 FXUS61 KAKQ 160720 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. Low pressure across the Plains states will lift a warm front into the Ohio Valley later Sunday through Monday, bringing an increase in clouds and a chance for a few rain showers to the local area. Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected during the middle to late portion of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 PM EDT Saturday... Temps as of 10 PM ranged from the low to mid 50s for most and upper 40s for Louisa. The latest analysis indicates a broad area of sfc high pressure over the eastern CONUS, with a weak trough aloft along/just off the northern mid- Atlantic coast. It is very dry in the low levels with dew pts in the 30s/40s. High pressure will become centered just offshore later tonight. A light S/SE return flow will develop overnight, and there will be an increase in mid level clouds after midnight from W to E. With the mainly clear evening, some of the inland areas will still likely become decoupled for much if not all of the night so went on the cool side of guidance. Not quite as cool as the past few nights, but lows will still range from the mid 40s to upper 40s across most of the region (some lower 40s will be possible over interior southern VA and Louisa). Some overnight ground fog will also be possible in far SE VA/NE NC and Northampton county late tonight into early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... A weak/sheared-out shortwave trough will track over the area Sunday and there will be ample mid/high level moisture which should allow for mostly cloudy skies across at least western/central portions of the CWA. There is little in the way of deep layered moisture and lift however, so PoPs have generally been capped at around 20%, except over the far NW where a 20-30% PoP for afternoon showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be maintained. Chance of rain decreases closer to the coast and remains at 10% or less with partly cloudy skies. It will be a bit cooler well inland with more clouds, with highs in the upper 60s NW to lower 70s over much of central and south central VA (high lower-mid 70s SE). Models continue to differ in the coverage of rain showers Monday as an upper level trough over the SW CONUS extends E to the central/southern Plains, lifting a warm front into the OH Valley. ECMWF/NAM remain wetter than the GFS, but all of the models indicate the bulk of the moisture will stay W of the Appalachians. Will have PoPs to 30-40% across most of the area Mon into Mon evening, but QPF amounts will remain rather minimal. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures in the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE and lows in the 50s. High pressure is then forecast to nose back S into the region on Tue, with highs mainly in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... The latest 12Z/15 models are in good agreement that the upper level pattern will feature a amplifying upper ridge developing over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. There are some subtle differences between the models and ensembles regarding how far south an upper trough dives SE from central Canada by next weekend, which could bring some showers and tstms into the local area by Sat. Since the overall consensus keeps all of that N of the mid Atlantic at this time, will have a dry forecast for the entire medium range period. Lows mostly in the 50s Tue night, with highs a little above normal for Wed (upper 70s to lower 80s). Temperatures then trend to well above normal by Fri- Sat as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 15 to 17C, and have highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s Fri-Sat. Skies will be partly- mostly sunny. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure remains over the region with primarily VFR conditions and winds mainly 5-10kt (variable directions inland and onshore E/SE near the coast). Light winds tonight with CU diminishing over the next couple of hours with mainly clear skies early. Models have come into better agreement in a period of ground fog developing overnight in SE VA/NE NC and Northampton county with MVFR VIS around 3-5 SM likely between 8-12z Sun. Can`t rule out a period of IFR VIS fog with around 2 SM between 9-11z for ECG, but confidence is not high enough at this time to reflect this in the tafs. Expect high clouds to increasing overnight through Sunday, lowering in the late morning and afternoon. CIGs expected to be VFR (generally 7000-10000 ft) with a brief window of potentially isolated MVFR CIGs (~3000 ft) in the far western piedmont in the late morning and early afternoon. High pressure becomes centered off the coast on Sunday with a light S/SE wind 5-10 kt inland and E near the coast. There could be a sprinkle or a chance for light rain Sun but most areas stay dry. A frontal boundary will lift NE into the OH Valley Mon/Tue, but the front will weaken along and to the E of the Appalachians and into the local area. While a few showers will be possible Sun night through early Tue the bulk of moisture looks to remain W of the local area so mainly VFR conditions are expected. High pressure is expected to become centered over the area later Tue-thu with dry wx and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 320 AM EDT Sunday... No headlines expected thru mid week as high pres remains in control. A weak sfc trof off the Mid Atntc coast will help to keep winds onshore (E-SE) aob 15 kts thru Tues. Some swell emanating from a low near 30N 70W has resulted in 3-4 ft seas from Va Beach south across the nrn OB while any convection remains out near the Gulf Stream. Given this, elected to go with a moderate risk for rip currents across the northern OB today. Winds turn S-SW Wed thru Fri as Bermuda high pres dominates. Seas 2- 3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM SHORT TERM...CP/LKB LONG TERM...CP/LKB AVIATION...LKB/RMM MARINE...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.