Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210106 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 906 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states through Monday. A strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure building in from the north Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Latest analysis indicating a weak sfc trough across the area with a strong upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the mid-Atlantic region. One cluster of tstms is ongoing over northern VA but generally looks to be struggling to hold together while moving slowly ESE. Will have 15-20% PoPs over the far NE portion of the CWA though around midnight in case this is able to maintain itself, otherwise just mostly clear and hot with temperatures still holding mostly in the mid 80s to around 90F as of 9pm (locally even a few lower 90s in the more urban areas of SE VA w/ heat indices still ~105F). It is a bit cooler W of I-95 where most areas are in the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s over the Piedmont, and 75-80F elsewhere (some lower possible urban areas of SE VA and the eastern shore with heat index values not much below 85-90F). Certainly a good shot at challenging or setting new record high mins for Sun 7/21 (see climate section). && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... H5 ridge remains strong enough to keep the excessive heat going and limit any convection thru 21Z Sun. Models show sct convection dvlpng along a sfc trof across the Blue Ridge then drifting se into the wrn Piedmont late. Will maintain slight chc PoPs across wrn most zones. Otw...mstly sunny, hot/humid. Highs mid 90s-lwr 100s with HI values 110-115, highest east of I95. Still very warm/humid Sun night. Sct convection across the nrn half of the fa due to a weak trof moving east across nrn VA. Lows 75-80, warmest once again in urban areas. H5 ridge begins to break down Mon as a cold front approaches from the NW. Another mstly sunny/hot day before any convection develops in the aftn. Highs in the mid-upr 90s. Grids would suggest a heat advsry will be needed along and east of I85 for heat index values 105-110. Dew points may mix out across the Piedmont holding HI`s to arnd 100. Convection develops to the NW then moves se across the region in the aftn. Lowered PoPs with 20-40% across the nw two thirds of the local area, remaining dry across the se. Cold front apprchs Mon night with showers/tstms overspreading the fa north to south thru the night. Will carry high chc to likely PoPs attm. Lows upr 60s NW to mid-upr 70s se. Cold front slowly crosses tracks se across the area Tue. Models show copious amounts of moisture with this bndry along with enough lift to produce some mdt to hvy rainfall. This will end the heatwave with highs upr 70s west to mid 80s se. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... The upper trough and associated cold front slide southeast of the area late Tuesday through Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with the timing of the frontal passage, with the majority of any precipitation coming to an from NW to SE through the day on Wednesday. The front likely lingers just to the SE of the area late Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, have a slight chance for a shower or storm across the far SE into the day on Thursday. High pressure will be building in from the north behind the front, leading to drier conditions across the entire region late this week and into next weekend. Wednesday will start out as the coolest day of the forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s across much of the area. Low temperatures will dip back into the 60s with even some upper 50s across the NW Wednesday night. A gradual warming trend is anticipated Thursday and Friday with temperatures climbing back into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will also trend warmer with values in the mid to upper 60s (lower 70s along the immediate coast). && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 00z TAF period with only FEW to SCT cumulus Sunday afternoon. WSW winds in the 5 to 10 kt range will continue into the day on Sunday. OUTLOOK: Upper level ridge slowly breaks down Sunday night and Monday, allowing for a better coverage of late day/evening convection over the Piedmont. A cold front approaches and drops across the area erly Tuesday. High probability for showers/tstms late Mon night into Tuesday as that front is slow to push to the east and south. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft remains anchored off the coast with southwesterly flow in place across the region. Winds are somewhat variable with 5-10 knots noted across the Bay and 5-15 knots for the offshore zones. Waves are around 1 ft and seas are running 2-3 ft. SSW winds mainly 5-15 kt will continue into Monday night, as high pressure remains off the SE coast. Large scale ridging will begin to break down on Monday, as a surface trough precedes an upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. SW winds will increase as the pressure gradient begins to tighten Mon aftn into Mon night, generally 10-20 kt over the waters, highest in the srn Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal waters. Waves will build to around 2 ft, while seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft in the nrn three coastal zns. A period of showers and storms will accompany the surface trough Monday evening into the overnight with the potential for strong winds and locally higher waves/seas. A cold front will then drop across the waters Tue into Tue evening, with winds shifting to the NW or N around 10 kt behind the boundary into Wed morning. && .CLIMATE... For today Sat 7/20: No record highs were broken or tied at the 4 main CLI sites, but pending a significant temperature drop through midnight LST, ECG will have a new record high min at 79 and ORF will have tied their record high min at 79. Good chance for several record high mins to be tied or broken for Sun 7/21. Record highs and record high mins are listed below: * Richmond: Record High Record High Min * Sat (7/20): 103/1930 78/2013 * Sun (7/21): 104/1930 77/1930 * Mon (7/22): 103/1952 79/2011 * Norfolk: Record High Record High Min * Sat (7/20): 102/1942 79/1977 *today low so far 79F * Sun (7/21): 101/1926 80/1983 * Mon (7/22): 102/2011 82/2011 * Salisbury: Record High Record High Min * Sat (7/20): 104/1930 83/2013 * Sun (7/21): 106/1930 77/2017 * Mon (7/22): 104/1930 80/2011 * Eliz City: Record High Record High Min * Sat (7/20) 104/1942 78/2012 *today low so far 79F * Sun (7/21) 102/1987 79/1983 * Mon (7/22) 104/1952 79/2011 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>025. NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...AKQ

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