Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242143 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 543 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front across northern North Carolina will gradually move south into the Southeast through Wednesday, as high pressure lingers across the northeast. Meanwhile, a surface low across eastern North Carolina will become nearly stationary off the coast this evening through Wednesday allowing for widespread cloud cover. The front returns north as a warm front Thursday morning. A cold front crosses the area late Friday into Saturday, bringing showers and storms late Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday... Latest analysis reveals 1028 mb sfc high pressure centered over New England, ridging south into the mid-Atlantic region. To the south, a nearly stationary front lingers across NE NC with a sfc low in E NC riding ENE along it this afternoon. The low will stall off the coast this evening through Wed. Light rain/drizzle is expected to continue into the afternoon before tapering off from W to E this evening into tonight apart from lingering drizzle. Any storms across NE NC have weakened with only a slight chance for a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. A Slight Risk in the day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains for NE NC area today but flash flooding appears unlikely as convection is beginning to taper off. Additional rainfall of <0.15" expected over the next 12 hrs. Temps as of 330 PM ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s NW and in the Eastern Shore to the mid 60s in SE VA and upper 60s to mid 70s in NE NC. Expect temps to remain relatively steady this evening, dropping slowly overnight given the cloud cover. Lows in the mid to upper 50s NW to the mid to upper 60s SE expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday... Sfc low lingers off the Outer Banks through Wed night with high pressure lingering over the NE. The result will be continued cloud cover and NE onshore flow Wed with breezy conditions along the coast and lingering drizzle and occasional light showers, particularly near the coast. Given widespread cloud cover, expect a cool day with highs only in the lower to mid 60s for most and upper 60s to lower 70s in SE VA/NE NC. Lows Wed night in the upper 50s NW to the lower to mid 60s SE. The CAD front south of the area lifts north as a warm front early Thurs with mostly cloudy skies early and perhaps some breaks in the clouds by late afternoon, especially across the SE. With winds shifting to the S/SSE by Thurs afternoon, expect mild conditions to return with highs in the mid 70s N and lower 80s S. Cannot rule out a brief shower/storm across the far W Piedmont Thurs afternoon, but a better chance for showers exists across the W half of the FA Thurs night. This is in response to a digging trough and closed upper level low moving in from the W across the TN Valley Thurs/Thurs night before moving into the Appalachians Fri into Sat. Models still vary with regards to timing, but Fri looks to be the best chance for thunderstorms with highs in the upper 70s W to the lower to mid 80s E. SPC does not currently have the area under a risk for severe weather Fri, but will need to monitor for the potential for strong storms as we get closer. Thunderstorms/showers gradually move E and taper off Fri night. Lows Fri night in the lower 60s W to the upper 60s E. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 405 PM EDT Monday... Models still disagree with regards to how Memorial Day weekend turns out. The GFS which has been the most pessimistic with keeping an upper level low over the area has now become the most progressive with the trough/upper level low moving offshore Sat evening. The Euro has trended towards this Sat solution as well. However, the Canadian now keeps the low over the area into Sun. That being said, considerable uncertainty remains particularly for Sat into Sun. For now, have a chance for showers/storms Sat, tapering off Sat night, and only a slight chance for a few showers along the coast Sun and with most areas remaining dry. Memorial Day and Tues look to be dry. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sat, lower to mid 80s Sun, mid to upper 80s Mon (Memorial day), and upper 80s to near 90 Tues except mid 80s along the coast. Lows in the upper 50s to around 60F W to mid 60s E Sat and Sun nights, lower 60s W to mid 60s E Mon night, and mid to upper 60s Tues night expected. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday... Low pressure continues to move ENE across E NC this afternoon, stalling near the coast this evening through Wed. Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs continue through the 18z taf period with rain/showers (isolated thunderstorms near ECG) this afternoon tapering off to light rain/drizzle this evening through tonight, potentially lingering into Wed, especially near the coast. The exception is SBY where CIGs have been bouncing between MVFR/IFR as drier air from the high to the north filters in. However, even SBY will likely drop to IFR CIGs overnight. Primarily NE winds ~10 kt should also become occasionally gusty (highest at the coast) this afternoon and this evening and again Wed afternoon. Outlook: Some improvement to CIGs at KSBY Wednesday. Otherwise, degraded CIGs (to IFR or lower) likely to persist into Wed night and perhaps Thurs morning before a warm front lifts north Thurs and conditions improve. Another round of CIG/VSBY restrictions are possible late Friday into Saturday with another system approaching from the west. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday... Strengthening onshore flow regime in place this afternoon as weak low pressure over NC coastal plain makes slow eastward progress. Surface high pressure centered over New England results in an enhanced pressure gradient over the local waters with easterly winds 15-25 kt. Waves are 2-3 ft in the Ches Bay and seas offshore range from 3-6 ft. Pressure pattern will remain largely unchanged tonight into Wednesday with continued E/NE flow. Winds average 20 with gusts 25-30 kt in the bay, sound, and tidal rivers and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt for the coastal waters. SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters into Wednesday. Seas build to 4-7 ft offshore by late tonight and continue into Wednesday night. Waves over much of the Ches Bay will be 2-3 ft through this event but 3-5 ft waves near the mouth are likely into Wednesday night. Pressure gradient will slowly relax from north to south on Wednesday as low pressure begins to pull away from the coast but winds will take some time to fall below SCA thresholds. Seas will be even slower to subside with 5 ft seas forecast for the coastal waters into Thursday. Flow turns southerly on Thursday as a warm front lifts north across the waters ahead of the next cold front. Winds look to stay below SCA thresholds with this front but seas are likely to build offshore once again by late in the week. *Rip currents: Moderate rip risk continues today with a high risk at all beaches forecast for Wednesday. Conditions improve a bit later this week but lingering swell argues for moderate rip risk into Thursday. *Tides and Coastal Flooding: While no coastal flooding is forecast at this time, enhanced NE winds at the mouth of the Ches Bay has resulted in a series of flood tides at Cape Henry with tidal anomalies rising, especially for the middle and upper bay. Nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible later this week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 545 PM EDT Tuesday... Rip currents: High rip current risk for primarily the Atlantic beaches of Virginia Beach, Accomack, and Northampton counties for Wednesday. Moderate rip current risk for the remaining area beaches. Conditions improve a bit later this week but lingering swell argues for moderate rip risk into Thursday. Tides and Coastal Flooding: While no coastal flooding is forecast at this time, enhanced NE winds at the mouth of the Ches Bay has resulted in a series of flood tides at Cape Henry with tidal anomalies rising, especially for the middle and upper bay. Nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible later this week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654-656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJB/RHR

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