Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242031 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 431 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks the local area today through tonight...then will be slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... The main rain band is along the I-64 corridor at the moment and is lifting northward with some scattered showers continuing to develop over the Carolinas. These showers will continue to move northward ahead of the surface low and warm front that will be moving into the region tonight. The surface low is currently near CLT and will continue to slide NE tonight arriving in Srn VA by Wed morning. At the same time the warm front will continue to push north along the coast tonight and should lift across the Delmarva by Wed morning as well. With the main band of pcpn already moving north, will see the chances for rain gradually diminish tonight with temperatures holding near steady or perhaps even rising a few degrees by Wed morning in the vicinity of the warm front. For overnight low did lean toward the warmer guidance thinking clouds will keep temperatures from dropping too much. On Wednesday, the initial surface low and warm front will lift north of the area, but the upper level low will settle over the area. This will allow for some cooler air aloft to settle over the area with more showers developing in the afternoon. Could potentially see some thunder if there is enough heating ahead of the upper lows arrival. Right now, it looks like it will stay a little too cloudy, but it can`t be ruled out especially east of I-95. Guidance is pretty spread on temps tomorrow with the MET much cooler than the MAV. Have generally gone in between with temps in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... The upper low will exit the region early Wed night taking any chance of rain with it. Show a gradual decrease in pops from SW to NE during the evening. Behind this system the newer model runs are not as aggressive in pushing the drier air with the next sfc high into the region. This is more like what the GFS had been depicting in previous runs. As a result have kept the clouds a little longer and also raised overnight lows by a few degrees getting closer to guidance in the low to mid 50s. With the front not pushing as far south on Wed night into Thursday and stalling more along the NC/VA border expect to see a little less sunshine especially across srn VA/Nrn NC. The next surface wave is now progged to arrive sooner on Thursday night. So expect to see clouds on the increase during the afternoon and could even see some light pcpn in the Piedmont counties around sunset. At this point held off on adding late afternoon pcpn but will need to see how quick the overrunning develops. For highs on Thursday did have readings back into the low to mid 70s with the best warming in the eastern portion of the CWA. With the next wave arriving sooner have sped up pops on Thursday night and Friday morning. The best chance for rain looks to be in the Piedmont counties so have increased pops to 50 for now and they may need to be increased. Once the surface low lifts through the area by Friday morning should see the chances for rain diminish by later morning/early afternoon. For temperatures, kept readings a little warmer Thurs night with the sw flow and clouds. For highs on Friday did keep highs in the low to mid 70s as the return of the sun in the afternoon should allow for temperatures to warm especially ahead of the cold front for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches. After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Tue 75-80. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday... East to southeasterly flow continues across the region this afternoon ahead of the the developing low over South Carolina. The ceilings have been slowly lowering as the rain band has moved northward, but along the coast the ceilings have remained in mvfr range around 2k - 3k ft. Farther inland however the ceilings have dropped lower to ifr range, but they have remained just to the sw of RIC. Guidance still suggest that as the rain moves northward and the easterly flow continues that ceilings should drop to ifr levels across the region. So as the low approaches the area this afternoon and evening will forecast that the ceilings do drop to ifr levels for at least a period of time. The warm front lifts northward as the low tracks into the area this evening. The warm front should slowly move north along the coast and all taf sites except RIC should move into the warm sector. This usually will bring ceilings up, but the guidance is slow to do that waiting until Wed after 12z to show improvement. So have gone against guidance a little bit to improve ceilings after 6z in the south and slowly improve conditions heading north by around 12z. But again confidence is not very high in that part of the forecast. By Wednesday, the upper level low will move over the area which should allow the ceilings to rise to at least mvfr levels if not vfr with some scattered showers in the area. Outlook...Wed night - Sunday... The upper low departs Wed night as high pressure noses into the area. The system will impact the region on Thursday night with some showers and mvfr conditions. A second cold front swings across the the region on Saturday with vfr conditions returning on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Broad low pressure is situated over Upstate SC this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well off the New England coast. The resultant pressure gradient between these two features is causing east to southeast winds of 15-25 kt with gust up to 30 kt that will last into this evening. Seas will continue to build to 6-10 ft by this evening; waves reaching 3-5 ft, except up to 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Winds/waves/seas diminish/subside overnight into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs remain in effect for all waters through late evening, with SCAs for the Rivers coming down at 11 pm Tue, and for the Bay/Sound at 1 am Wed. SCAs have been extended into Thursday morning for the southern coastal waters and Thursday afternoon for the northern coastal waters due to seas remaining elevated. A High Surf Advisory for OBX Currituck will also remain in effect until 5 am Wednesday for nearshore waves of 8- 10 feet. Broad low pressure lifts north through the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. After a brief lull midweek the next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM

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