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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
715 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly lift north across the region through
this evening. A cold front will cross the area from the
northwest late tonight into Monday morning. Canadian high
pressure returns Monday night through Tuesday. Low pressure
tracks off the Carolina coast Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...

Significant changes made to the temp grids this eve as the models
are not handling the frontal bndry vry well. What should be a
northward moving front has trended back to the south over the past
few hrs resulting in tmps falling arnd 10 degrees across parts of
sern VA. In addition, widespread drizzle/fog have dvlpd north of
the bndry across the Piedmont. Have issued an SPS to cover VSBYS
aob 1/2 mile.

Hrly tmp guid not much help either, so will give this the old
"hand edited college try". Had to lwr mins for the nite by 5-10
degrees in some areas based on the mins occuring at 00Z with stdy
or slowly rising readings across the south thru the nite. Appears
the Piedmont may get stuck arnd 50 for quite a while.

PoP wise, rain conts across the nrn most zones with addntl rain
moving in from the west attm. Highest PoPs across the north after
midnite.

PVS DSCN:
The cold front is expected to pass through the early Monday
morning through midday bringing a period of rain to the entire
area. A SW wind should become rather breezy ahead of the front
across SE VA/NE NC late tonight into early Monday morning with
speeds of up to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. High-res
guidance still depicts some semblance of a thin convective line
across SE VA/NE NC immediately along the front. This could
produce some locally stronger wind gusts as 950mb wind is
forecast to be 40-45kt. Additional QPF with the front is
expected to be 0.2-0.35". Drier air arrives from NW-SE Monday
afternoon with high temperatures Monday ranging from the low 60s
NW to near 70F SE, but a somewhat non-diurnal temperature curve
is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...

Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the area Monday night
into Tuesday. The sky is expected to clear along with the
arrival of cooler temperatures. Forecast lows Monday night range
from the upper 20s to low 30s, followed by highs in the low to
mid 40s E, to upper 40s/around 50F W Tuesday. Another system
moves across the Carolinas Tuesday night to off the Carolina
coast later Wednesday. The latest guidance supports the best chc
of rain across srn VA and NE NC. Precipitation may start out as
a rain/snow mix across portions of the Piedmont late Tuesday
night before transitioning over to rain. Confidence still
remains below average with this solution due to widely differing
model solutions. Forecast lows Tuesday night are in the upper
20s to mid 30s, followed by highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Sunday...

Mainly dry weather for Thursday into Friday. Generally near
normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the
extended period. Another system potentially develops off the
coast Friday night into Saturday. However, the general
consensus amongst 28/12z deterministic and ensemble guidance
continues to show low pressure to be well off the coast with
cool high pressure to the N, and dry conditions locally. Cool
and dry into next weekend per the latest guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Sunday...

A front bndry remains nrly stnry across sern VA/ne NC this eve with
widespread IFR ST/drizzle/fog north of it. VFR south of it at ECG.
Models are showing srly winds increasing overnite allowing for some
of the fog/ST to scour out with the frnt inching northward. Not
confident this occurs at RIC/SBY but should at ORF/PHF after 06Z.

Areas of rain will accompany a cold front as it crosses the area
Mon. This keeps MVFR CIGS/VSBYS continuing into the aftrn. WSW
winds become gusty ahead of it (15-25 kts), shifting to the NW
behind it.

OUTLOOK...
High pressure builds in Mon night into Tues. Low pressure moves
off the Carolina coast Wed. High pressure returns Thurs/Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 PM EST Sunday...

Issued a marine dense fog advisory for zones ANZ650 and ANZ652
until midnight. Obs off of OXB and WAL are down to half mile
visby, and with the front still to the south over Virginia
Beach, expect fog conditions to remain for at least several more
hours.

Previous discussion...

Warm front extends off the Virginia coast this afternoon. Winds
have become southerly across NC waters, but remain easterly to
northeast north of Cape Charles. The warm front will continue to
move north this evening. Winds will turn SW across all coastal
waters. SCA has been issued for the southern portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound tonight
through Monday morning for SW winds 15-20 kt. Gusts will likely
be around 20 kt for a few hours tomorrow morning. SCAs remain in
effect for the ocean zones north of Cape Charles for seas
around 5 ft.

A strong cold front will move off the coast Monday morning.
There may be a line of heavy showers producing gusty winds as
the cold front moves off the coast between 7 AM and 11 AM
Monday. Behind the front, winds will become NW 15-20 kt by
Monday afternoon. Another SCA will likely be need for the bay.

Colder air will move into the area Monday night, bringing an
increase in the NW flow. Gale Watch remain in effect for the
central portion of the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean north
of Cape Charles. Winds will be NW 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40
kt in these area. Elsewhere, winds will be NW 20-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt. SCAs will most likely be needed for the
remainder of our coastal waters.

High pressure is expected to move over the region Tuesday with
sub- SCA conditions. An area of low pressure is forecasted to
track off the Carolina coast Wednesday, bring the next threat of
SCA conditions, mainly for our southern waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ631>634.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for
     ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ638.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST
     Monday night for ANZ652-654.
     Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/MPR
MARINE...CMF/CP