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798
FXUS61 KAKQ 160720
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. Low
pressure across the Plains states will lift a warm front into
the Ohio Valley later Sunday through Monday, bringing an
increase in clouds and a chance for a few rain showers to the
local area. Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected during
the middle to late portion of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Saturday...

Temps as of 10 PM ranged from the low to mid 50s for most and
upper 40s for Louisa. The latest analysis indicates a broad
area of sfc high pressure over the eastern CONUS, with a weak
trough aloft along/just off the northern mid- Atlantic coast. It
is very dry in the low levels with dew pts in the 30s/40s. High
pressure will become centered just offshore later tonight. A
light S/SE return flow will develop overnight, and there will be
an increase in mid level clouds after midnight from W to E.
With the mainly clear evening, some of the inland areas will
still likely become decoupled for much if not all of the night
so went on the cool side of guidance. Not quite as cool as the
past few nights, but lows will still range from the mid 40s to
upper 40s across most of the region (some lower 40s will be
possible over interior southern VA and Louisa). Some overnight
ground fog will also be possible in far SE VA/NE NC and
Northampton county late tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

A weak/sheared-out shortwave trough will track over the area
Sunday and there will be ample mid/high level moisture which
should allow for mostly cloudy skies across at least
western/central portions of the CWA. There is little in the way
of deep layered moisture and lift however, so PoPs have
generally been capped at around 20%, except over the far NW
where a 20-30% PoP for afternoon showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm will be maintained. Chance of rain
decreases closer to the coast and remains at 10% or less with
partly cloudy skies. It will be a bit cooler well inland with
more clouds, with highs in the upper 60s NW to lower 70s over
much of central and south central VA (high lower-mid 70s SE).

Models continue to differ in the coverage of rain showers
Monday as an upper level trough over the SW CONUS extends E to
the central/southern Plains, lifting a warm front into the OH
Valley. ECMWF/NAM remain wetter than the GFS, but all of the
models indicate the bulk of the moisture will stay W of the
Appalachians. Will have PoPs to 30-40% across most of the area
Mon into Mon evening, but QPF amounts will remain rather
minimal. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with high
temperatures in the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE and lows in the
50s. High pressure is then forecast to nose back S into the
region on Tue, with highs mainly in the 70s under partly to
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

The latest 12Z/15 models are in good agreement that the upper
level pattern will feature a amplifying upper ridge developing
over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS. There are some subtle
differences between the models and ensembles regarding how far
south an upper trough dives SE from central Canada by next
weekend, which could bring some showers and tstms into the local
area by Sat. Since the overall consensus keeps all of that N of
the mid Atlantic at this time, will have a dry forecast for the
entire medium range period. Lows mostly in the 50s Tue night,
with highs a little above normal for Wed (upper 70s to lower
80s). Temperatures then trend to well above normal by Fri- Sat
as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to 15 to 17C, and
have highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s Fri-Sat. Skies will
be partly- mostly sunny.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure remains over the region with primarily VFR
conditions and winds mainly 5-10kt (variable directions inland
and onshore E/SE near the coast). Light winds tonight with CU
diminishing over the next couple of hours with mainly clear
skies early. Models have come into better agreement in a period
of ground fog developing overnight in SE VA/NE NC and
Northampton county with MVFR VIS around 3-5 SM likely between
8-12z Sun. Can`t rule out a period of IFR VIS fog with around 2
SM between 9-11z for ECG, but confidence is not high enough at
this time to reflect this in the tafs. Expect high clouds to
increasing overnight through Sunday, lowering in the late
morning and afternoon. CIGs expected to be VFR (generally
7000-10000 ft) with a brief window of potentially isolated MVFR
CIGs (~3000 ft) in the far western piedmont in the late morning
and early afternoon. High pressure becomes centered off the
coast on Sunday with a light S/SE wind 5-10 kt inland and E near
the coast. There could be a sprinkle or a chance for light rain
Sun but most areas stay dry.

A frontal boundary will lift NE into the OH Valley Mon/Tue, but
the front will weaken along and to the E of the Appalachians
and into the local area. While a few showers will be possible
Sun night through early Tue the bulk of moisture looks to remain
W of the local area so mainly VFR conditions are expected. High
pressure is expected to become centered over the area later
Tue-thu with dry wx and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

No headlines expected thru mid week as high pres remains in control.
A weak sfc trof off the Mid Atntc coast will help to keep winds
onshore (E-SE) aob 15 kts thru Tues. Some swell emanating from a low
near 30N 70W has resulted in 3-4 ft seas from Va Beach south across
the nrn OB while any convection remains out near the Gulf Stream.
Given this, elected to go with a moderate risk for rip currents
across the northern OB today.

Winds turn S-SW Wed thru Fri as Bermuda high pres dominates. Seas 2-
3 ft. Waves 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...CP/LKB
LONG TERM...CP/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...MPR