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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the coast this
afternoon through Wednesday bringing clouds and isolated to
scattered showers. Gradually improving conditions are expected
later in the week, as high pressure builds into the area and
low pressure weakens offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1025 AM EDT Tuesday...

Late this morning, weak sfc low pressure was spinning off the NC
coast. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure was centered over New England
and Atlantic Canada. The sky was mostly cloudy to cloudy across
the area with the latest radar showing just isolated showers
moving into/over portions of the region from east to west. Temps
were ranging through the 60s into the lower 70s. Sfc low pressure
will linger off the NC coast this aftn, as high pressure nudges
into the VA Piedmont resulting in NE flow and persistent cloud
cover. High temps will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with
a NE wind of 15-20 mph along the coast, 10-15 mph inland to the
I-95 corridor, and ~10 mph over the Piedmont. Easterly flow along
the northern periphery of the low will push mid-level moisture
onshore, with 30-40% PoPs for showers from the coast to the
I-95 corridor, and ~20% over the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure retrogrades back toward the NC coast tonight into
Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored off the New England
coast. This will result continued unsettled and mostly cloudy
conditions. However, the low and hence the forcing will diminish
with PoPs lowering to 20-30% toward the coast and 15% or less
well inland. High temperatures Wednesday range from the upper
60s along the coast, to the mid 70s well inland, after morning
lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The low weakens and sinks
southward Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure and
drier air push in from the N. Clouds will be slow to clear
Wednesday night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Partial
clearing is possible inland Thursday while clouds persist along
the coast. High temperatures range from the lower 70s along the
coast, to the upper 70s/near 80F well inland, along with a
slight chc of afternoon showers/tstms inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure is expected to be located well offshore of the
Southeast coast Thursday night into Friday with weak high
pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region. Light NE flow will keep
highs in the mid/upper 70s along the coast Friday, with lower to
mid 80s well inland, after morning lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Mainly dry with only a slight chc of afternoon
showers/tstms. A backdoor cold front pushes through the area
Saturday afternoon/Saturday night bring a slight chc/low chc of
showers/tstms. Highs Saturday range from the mid/upper 70s along
the coast to the mid 80s well inland. High pressure returns
Sunday/Monday with highs Sunday in the 70s, then upper 70s to
lower 80s Monday with mainly dry conditions. Low temperatures
will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure was centered just off the NC coast early this aftn.
Meanwhile, sfc high pressure was centered over New England.
Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS were prevailing at the TAF sites, with
isolated to sctd showers producing occasional vsby restrictions.
NE or N winds were 5-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Low pressure
is expected to linger off the NC coast this aftn through Wed, as
high pressure builds in from the NNE. Expect CIGs to remain IFR
to MVFR through the period, with possible VFR CIGs at SBY this
aftn into this evening, before their CIGs go back down to IFR
tonight into Wed aftn. Low pressure will gradually sink farther
south of the area or dissipate later Wed night through Fri, as
sfc high pressure builds down into the region. Some improvement
is expected later Thu through Fri. Another backdoor cold front
potentially pushes through the area Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Afternoon analysis shows a very similar pattern across the area:
high pressure to the N and weak low pressure offshore the
Carolinas. This is maintaining brisk NE winds across most of the
local waters given a tight(ish) pressure gradient. A diffuse
boundary/weak cold front is located near the NC/VA border, with
stronger winds to the N and lighter winds S. This is evident
with obs showing 10-20 kt winds across the Bay and Ocean N of
the NC/VA border with 5-15 kt S of the border.

Breezy NE winds persist through the rest of today and into the
overnight hrs. SCAs N of New Point Comfort and for the lower
James remain in effect until 2z/10 pm. There may be a brief
lull in the winds from 4-8z, but the gradient tightens yet again
for Wednesday, especially across the S. Have extended the small
craft advisories for the Bay S of New Point Point Comfort
through most of Wednesday for NE winds 15-20 kt w/ ~25 kt gusts,
in addition to adding the Currituck Sound to the SCA for Wed.
Benign marine conditions are generally expected for later Thurs
and Fri. There is the potential for another area of low
pressure to organize off the Southeast coast Friday into this
weekend as a stronger high builds across Atlantic Canada.
Additionally, a backdoor cold front will likely cross the waters
from the NE sometime later Sat/early Sun. This would act to
enhance the NE winds given models showing a decent shot of CAA.
Winds could approach 20-25 kt, highest across the coastal
waters.

Seas have gradually been building through the aftn w/
seas around 5 ft S to around 7 ft N. As seas are near 5 ft
everywhere, needed to start the SCA early for the coastal waters
S of the NC/VA border. The SCAs for the coastal waters continue
through early Thursday for seas (in addition to winds Wed).
Seas remain elevated to 5 feet through at least Wednesday
evening/Wednesday night. Waves in the Bay are generally running
2 to 3 feet. At the mouth of the Bay, waves will likely remain
near 4 ft through Thursday, which necessitates the SCA through
early Thurs there (despite decreasing winds).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 530 AM EDT Tuesday...

The rip risk increases to high today across the Eastern Shore
beaches as waves build to 4-5 ft. w/ a stronger NE flow. Across
the south, the models generally show the front weakening or
stalling in the vicinity of the VA-NC border. High rip risk for
Wed given 4-5 ft nearshore waves forecast for all zones. The
rip risk will likely remain elevated (moderate or high) through
this week into next weekend with a persistent NE wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...