Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180954 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 554 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves south across the Carolinas today, then stalls over the southeastern states through Friday. High pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region today and tonight, then moves east to a position off the New England coast Friday. Low pressure approaches from the south Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 600 AM EDT Wednesday... Latest MSAS has the cold front moving off the coast with any shwr activity moving se across ern NC ahead of it. Adjusted pop/wx grid a bit to keep slght chc shwrs for the next few hrs along zones that border the Albemarle Sound. Otw, high pressure over the Gt Lakes region builds se today pushing the frontal boundary south into the Carolinas today. Drier air with falling dew point temps (into the upr 50s-mid 60s) result in a mstly sunny and less humid day ahead (for mid July standards). Highs mid-upr 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday... Mainly clr / comfy tonite. Lows in the 60s, except nr 70s se. Mstly sunny and continued less humid Thurs as high pressure tracks north of the region. Highs low-mid 80s. Mstly clr again Thurs nite. Lows lwr 60s nw to lwr 70s se. Forecast gets rather interesting later this week as the models are now showing the beginning of a pattern change across the area. Low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary across the se Thurs night then drifts slowly ne pulling a warm front north along the Carolina coast Fri. Models then diverge with its track for the Fri nite / Sat time frame. Although not a tropical low, it appears it will transport higher PW`s north especially east of the I95 corridor. Given these trends, went ahead and introduced low chc pops across sern zones Fri aftrn with low chc pops spreading north across the local area Fri night. Highs Fri in the low-mid 80s, Lows Fri nite mid 60s-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Monday... A sustained chance of showers and thunderstorms through the extended period, with temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, is in store. A low pressure system is expected to develop over the Outer Banks of NC by 06z Saturday and quickly propagate northeastward. In turn, the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday will be along and east of I-95, especially focused along the immediate coast. Wrap- around moisture will be the culprit for continued showers into Saturday night over the northeastern CWA (VA/MD). Attention quickly turns to the west-southwest as southerly flow pumps in respectable amounts of moisture. Sun-Tue will be underscored by an upper level trough that parks itself atop the area, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day...mainly during the afternoon hours. Not everyone wins the rain lottery, but if you do get caught underneath a storm, expect a quick burst of moderate to heavy rainfall. Temperatures each day will generally be in the mid 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the low to middle 70s. This weather pattern is virtually "shooting par" for the middle of July. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 600 AM EDT Wednesday... The cold front has moved off the coast with any pcpn moving se across ern NC ahead of it. Still plenty of mstr arnd this morning with lcl IFR ST along the Delmarva coast and MVFR SC across the sern coastal areas. Expect VFR at all TAF sites as the morning wears on due to much drier air filtering in from the nw. Winds bcmg N-NE at less than 10 kts. Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Friday. Low pressure approaching from the south will bring unsettled weather with an increase in convection over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday... No headlines in the short term today thru Thu night. A cold front will push south of the waters this morning, with the center of high pressure building SE thru the Great Lakes today into this evening. WNW winds 15 kt or less early this morning, will shift to the N later this morning, then become NNE 10 kt or less by this evening. The center of the high will build into nrn PA by Thu morning, then slides to along the New England/nrn Mid Atlc coast by Thu evening. Expect NNE winds arnd 10 kt or less late tonight into Thu aftn, then E 10 kt or less by Thu evening. High pressure will slide ewrd into the nrn Atlc Fri into Sat morning, with a weak area of low pressure lifting nwrd along the NC coast Fri night into Sat morning. This will result in increasing E or SE winds Fri aftn into Sat morning. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. Earliest return to service is later today. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG EQUIPMENT...MPR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.