Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281610 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1210 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary laying across North Carolina early this morning, will slowly lift back north as a warm front later this morning into Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the area from the west northwest late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Monday and Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1210 PM EDT Saturday... Latest weather analysis reveals a potent upper level trough over the central plains at midday, with the associated sfc low over NE KS/SE NE. The associated warm front extends east across the Ohio Valley into the lower Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, with regional radar mosaic showing a swath of light to moderate rainfall across the upper eastern shore up into the northeast CONUS. Locally, showers from early this morning have pushed offshore...with clouds scouring out quickly over the central and southern portions of the local area. Temperatures are already well into the 70s across the hwy 58 corridor in far southern VA and into NC...with 50s to mid 60s over central VA over to the northern neck and lower MD eastern shore. Temps will warm quickly this afternoon for most of the area, as the low over the plains states slides NE, which will serve to shunt the warm front farther north into this evening. Have pushed temps up toward the high end of the guidance envelope (hi-res HRRRX and NAM Nest blend). Forecasted high temps mainly the mid 70s to mid 80s along and south of Interstate 64. Farther north, highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s over the northern neck and eastern shore (coolest over Lwr MD). Frontal boundary becomes hung up north of KRIC tonight. Therefore expect continued low clouds/fog and drizzle over the VA nrn neck and the Lwr MD and VA ern shore tonight into mid morning Sun before the entire area is in the warm sector. Farther south, partly to mostly clear and mild. Temps won`t fall very far this evening...and will mainly range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday... A cold front will then approach and push into the region from the WNW during Sun. Decent SW sfc winds in advance of the front combined with at least some sunshine, will help temps climb into the mid to upper 80s west of the Ches Bay, while readings over the Lower MD and VA ern shore will be cooler at 75 to 80. Ocean City may only reach around 70. Only widely sctd showers and possibly a tstm will develop ahead of the front in the aftn into the evening, as low level moisture will be limited. The front will push off the coast Sun night, with west winds behind the boundary ushering in drier air and a clearing sky. Lows Sun night ranging through the 50s to near 60. Dry wx expected Mon and Mon night. Generally mostly sunny on Mon with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s (may end up warmer). Mostly clear or partly cloudy Mon night with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... The pattern begins to change dramatically Tuesday as a strong southern stream system move across Arkansas and Tennessee and towards the mid Atlantic midweek. Clouds will rapidly increase Tuesday ahead of the storm system, though things will remain and rain chances quickly ramp back up for Tuesday with increasing rain chances especially through Tuesday afternoon with moisture spreading in form the south and west. Both the GFS and ECMWF are fairly amplified system though there are slight timing differences in regards to how fast rain moves in. As of snow expect rain Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as the surface low intensifies across the Carolinas and then moves up along the coast. This looks to be a significant shot of rainfall especially across Central VA to the coast. Rain should start to taper off during the day Wednesday depending on the exact timing and movement of the storms systems. Even in the strong northerly flow behind the system some lingering light rain may persist through a goof portion of Wednesday especially in the east and close to the Bay and coast. Temperatures Tuesday will be tricky depending on the timing of the system, but for now highs look to be in the lower 60s. Temperatures cool some behind the system with the north flow Wednesday night and Thursday. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Sctd rain showers will continue to affect mainly NNE portions of the area today into early this evening, as frontal boundary laying across NC early this morning, will slowly lift back north as a warm front. With E or SE winds in place over the area, expect MVFR or IFR CIGs at all the TAF sites later this morning into this aftn. Once IFR CIGs develop at SBY by 16Z today, expect them to last into early Sun morning, along with sctd showers or drizzle. CIGs will first lift and SCT out across NE NC (ECG) to VFR by early aftn, and improve from south to north as the front begins to lifts through the day. Also, could be some patchy fog, especially at ECG, due to ESE winds off the water/sound. Outlook: A cold front will pass through late Sun into Sun evening with widely scattered showers possible. Dry/VFR conditions expected Sun night and Mon. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday... Weak high pressure is located over New England early this morning, with a frontal boundary over central and ern NC. The wind is E 5-10kt, with seas ranging from ~3ft N to 3-4ft S. The wind is expected to increase to 10-15kt from the E or ESE through this morning as some tightening of the pressure gradient is expected. By this aftn, an E wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt off the MD coast, and this is expected to produce seas ~5ft. Therefore, SCA headlines have been issued from Chincoteague to Fenwick Is. from noon through 6 pm. Elsewhere, the wind is expected to decrease and become SSE as the boundary lifts N as a warm front. The boundary remains in vicinity of the region tonight, with the wind becoming very light for much of the area, with the exception of SW 10-15kt for the ocean S of Cape Charles. Seas subside to 2-3ft. The warm front continues to lift nwd Sunday with the wind becoming SSW 10- 15kt for the entire area. A cold front crosses the region Sunday night, with the wind shifting to W with speeds of 10-15kt Sunday night into Monday. A cold front drops across the region Sunday night with a sub-SCA NNW surge. Weak high pressure builds N of the region Tuesday. Low pressure impacts the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with SCA conditions likely, and the potential for gale conditions for at least a portion of the marine area. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ/RHR

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