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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
543 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across northern North Carolina will gradually
move south into the Southeast through Wednesday, as high pressure
lingers across the northeast. Meanwhile, a surface low across
eastern North Carolina will become nearly stationary off the coast
this evening through Wednesday allowing for widespread cloud cover.
The front returns north as a warm front Thursday morning. A cold
front crosses the area late Friday into Saturday, bringing showers
and storms late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Latest analysis reveals 1028 mb sfc high pressure centered over New
England, ridging south into the mid-Atlantic region. To the south, a
nearly stationary front lingers across NE NC with a sfc low in E NC
riding ENE along it this afternoon. The low will stall off the coast
this evening through Wed.

Light rain/drizzle is expected to continue into the afternoon before
tapering off from W to E this evening into tonight apart from
lingering drizzle. Any storms across NE NC have weakened with only a
slight chance for a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. A Slight
Risk in the day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains for NE NC area
today but flash flooding appears unlikely as convection is
beginning to taper off. Additional rainfall of <0.15" expected
over the next 12 hrs.

Temps as of 330 PM ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s NW and in
the Eastern Shore to the mid 60s in SE VA and upper 60s to mid 70s
in NE NC. Expect temps to remain relatively steady this evening,
dropping slowly overnight given the cloud cover. Lows in the mid to
upper 50s NW to the mid to upper 60s SE expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Sfc low lingers off the Outer Banks through Wed night with high
pressure lingering over the NE. The result will be continued
cloud cover and NE onshore flow Wed with breezy conditions along
the coast and lingering drizzle and occasional light showers,
particularly near the coast. Given widespread cloud cover,
expect a cool day with highs only in the lower to mid 60s for
most and upper 60s to lower 70s in SE VA/NE NC. Lows Wed night
in the upper 50s NW to the lower to mid 60s SE.

The CAD front south of the area lifts north as a warm front early
Thurs with mostly cloudy skies early and perhaps some breaks in the
clouds by late afternoon, especially across the SE. With winds
shifting to the S/SSE by Thurs afternoon, expect mild conditions to
return with highs in the mid 70s N and lower 80s S. Cannot rule out
a brief shower/storm across the far W Piedmont Thurs afternoon, but
a better chance for showers exists across the W half of the FA Thurs
night. This is in response to a digging trough and closed upper
level low moving in from the W across the TN Valley Thurs/Thurs
night before moving into the Appalachians Fri into Sat. Models still
vary with regards to timing, but Fri looks to be the best chance for
thunderstorms with highs in the upper 70s W to the lower to mid 80s
E. SPC does not currently have the area under a risk for severe
weather Fri, but will need to monitor for the potential for strong
storms as we get closer. Thunderstorms/showers gradually move E and
taper off Fri night. Lows Fri night in the lower 60s W to the upper
60s E.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Monday...

Models still disagree with regards to how Memorial Day weekend turns
out. The GFS which has been the most pessimistic with keeping an
upper level low over the area has now become the most progressive
with the trough/upper level low moving offshore Sat evening. The
Euro has trended towards this Sat solution as well. However, the
Canadian now keeps the low over the area into Sun. That being said,
considerable uncertainty remains particularly for Sat into Sun. For
now, have a chance for showers/storms Sat, tapering off Sat night,
and only a slight chance for a few showers along the coast Sun and
with most areas remaining dry. Memorial Day and Tues look to be dry.

Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sat, lower to mid 80s Sun, mid
to upper 80s Mon (Memorial day), and upper 80s to near 90 Tues
except mid 80s along the coast. Lows in the upper 50s to around 60F
W to mid 60s E Sat and Sun nights, lower 60s W to mid 60s E Mon
night, and mid to upper 60s Tues night expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday...

Low pressure continues to move ENE across E NC this afternoon,
stalling near the coast this evening through Wed. Widespread
IFR/LIFR CIGs continue through the 18z taf period with
rain/showers (isolated thunderstorms near ECG) this afternoon
tapering off to light rain/drizzle this evening through tonight,
potentially lingering into Wed, especially near the coast. The
exception is SBY where CIGs have been bouncing between MVFR/IFR
as drier air from the high to the north filters in. However,
even SBY will likely drop to IFR CIGs overnight. Primarily NE
winds ~10 kt should also become occasionally gusty (highest at
the coast) this afternoon and this evening and again Wed
afternoon.

Outlook: Some improvement to CIGs at KSBY Wednesday. Otherwise,
degraded CIGs (to IFR or lower) likely to persist into
Wed night and perhaps Thurs morning before a warm front lifts
north Thurs and conditions improve. Another round of CIG/VSBY
restrictions are possible late Friday into Saturday with another
system approaching from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Strengthening onshore flow regime in place this afternoon as weak
low pressure over NC coastal plain makes slow eastward progress.
Surface high pressure centered over New England results in an
enhanced pressure gradient over the local waters with easterly winds
15-25 kt. Waves are 2-3 ft in the Ches Bay and seas offshore range
from 3-6 ft.

Pressure pattern will remain largely unchanged tonight into
Wednesday with continued E/NE flow. Winds average 20 with gusts
25-30 kt in the bay, sound, and tidal rivers and 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt for the coastal waters. SCA headlines remain in
effect for all local waters into Wednesday. Seas build to 4-7 ft
offshore by late tonight and continue into Wednesday night.
Waves over much of the Ches Bay will be 2-3 ft through this
event but 3-5 ft waves near the mouth are likely into Wednesday
night. Pressure gradient will slowly relax from north to south
on Wednesday as low pressure begins to pull away from the coast
but winds will take some time to fall below SCA thresholds. Seas
will be even slower to subside with 5 ft seas forecast for the
coastal waters into Thursday.

Flow turns southerly on Thursday as a warm front lifts north across
the waters ahead of the next cold front. Winds look to stay below
SCA thresholds with this front but seas are likely to build offshore
once again by late in the week.

*Rip currents: Moderate rip risk continues today with a high
risk at all beaches forecast for Wednesday. Conditions improve a
bit later this week but lingering swell argues for moderate rip
risk into Thursday.

*Tides and Coastal Flooding: While no coastal flooding is
forecast at this time, enhanced NE winds at the mouth of the
Ches Bay has resulted in a series of flood tides at Cape Henry
with tidal anomalies rising, especially for the middle and upper
bay. Nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible later this
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 545 PM EDT Tuesday...

Rip currents: High rip current risk for primarily the Atlantic
beaches of Virginia Beach, Accomack, and Northampton counties
for Wednesday. Moderate rip current risk for the remaining area
beaches. Conditions improve a bit later this week but lingering
swell argues for moderate rip risk into Thursday.

Tides and Coastal Flooding: While no coastal flooding is
forecast at this time, enhanced NE winds at the mouth of the
Ches Bay has resulted in a series of flood tides at Cape Henry
with tidal anomalies rising, especially for the middle and upper
bay. Nuisance to low-end minor flooding is possible later this
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-
     638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJB/RHR