Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241922 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 322 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure builds over New England through tonight. A warm front pushes north across the area Tuesday. Low pressure approaches the Mid Atlantic coast from the southeast Tuesday night, then pushes offshore Wednesday. A cold front moves into the middle Atlantic Wednesday night, then stalls across the far southern part of the local area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Showers and isolated storms have developed across SE VA due to the coastal front convergence and afternoon heating. Expect this precip to diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, the wedge continues across the middle Atlantic, likely being reinforced by the rain falling across MD and PA, with low stratus having a tough time scouring out across the interior north. The wedge should persist through the night but will gradually start to break down somewhat as the parent high over New England shifts offshore. As such, will maintain cloudy conditions across the north and Piedmont, although the SE part of the forecast area should remain clear/partly cloudy. Between the drizzle and the light rain associated with the retreating 850mb warm front/warm advection, will need to maintain high chance pops across the north, quickly tapering to chc/schc south. Lows generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Low level flow turns more southeasterly as low pressure off the NC/SC coast moves northwest toward the Outer Banks on Tuesday. NWP suggest that the moisture associated with this system will start to impact the SE part of the forecast area Tue aftn/night. Other than some scattered showers/storms am not expecting much more from this system as it is forecast to remain just offshore with the best lift and moisture remaining offshore or to the south. Meanwhile, moisture associated with the Great Lakes trough will remain west of the region, but given the increased sunshine due to the wedge breaking down there will be at least some scattered afternoon/evening diurnal showers and storms. Better chances for showers/storms late Wed night through Thursday as the Great Lakes upper trough moves east allowing the sfc cold front to move through the area. The frontal boundary slows down and stalls out over the SE part of the forecast area Wed night into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow aloft. Meanwhile, an upper wave moves across the area in the SW flow aloft. This will allow for Thursday to be a generally rainy day and have gone likely pops across much of the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday rise into the 80s most areas and mid-upr 80s on Wednesday. Rain and clouds combined with developing NE flow will yield temps back into the upr 60s NW and mid 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Monday... Forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the day on Friday, so did lower pop slightly Friday afternoon, but did maintain a slight chance mention for all but far NW piedmont zones. Weekend looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least relatively temperatures look to fall back toward climo normal w/high pressure building over the region. Highs generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly each day late Friday into the weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... IFR conditions continue at all sites except ORF and ECG as the wedge remains in place. Expect IFR conditions to persist through tonight at RIC/SBY and perhaps PHF while VFR or MVFR conditions will continue at ORF/ECG. The wedge breaks down by Tuesday so all sites should become VFR by late Tue morning. Outlook...Scattered showers/storms possible Tue afternoon, however a better chance for showers/storms Wed afternoon-Thu as a cold front moves into the middle Atlantic and stalls out by Thursday. Could see IFR conditions on Thursday similar to today as another wedge establishes itself. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EDT Monday... Latest observations show easterly flow of 15-25 knots across the marine area. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for the rivers, bay, and coastal waters. Waves and seas are elevated as well while easterly flow persists today. Winds should begin to subside this evening and overnight as parent high pressure across New England, responsible for our easterly flow, begins to move away to the east and relax the local pressure gradient a bit. As this transition takes place during the overnight hours, our winds will take on a southeasterly component for Tuesday into Wednesday but will retain at least some onshore character through about mid week. Small craft conditions are expected to continue for the coastal zones through at least Wednesday as large seas will be slow to subside after the wind takes on a greater southerly component by mid week. The latter half of the week looks somewhat unsettled as a cold front with associated showers and storms approaches the area late Wednesday and into Thursday, allowing local winds to briefly take on a northerly component in its wake. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... Onshore winds do increase across the entire region later today as strong sfc hi pres remains centered invof New England. Tidal anomalies will once again increase at bit for much of the area, with possible shallow/minor flooding late tonight through Tue (esp for counties in VA/MD invof middle and upper Ches Bay). && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are received. However, no return to service time is available at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635- 636-638. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...AJB/MAM AVIATION...MRD MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... 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