Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230848 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the southeastern states into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the Great Lakes into New England. The front will lift back north as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 900 PM EST Friday... Latest MSAS has a stalled frontal boundary across the sern states with a sfc trof extending north along the mts. Meanwhile, 1032 mb sfc high was located over Michigan. A steady steam of moisture in the form of mainly light rain (amounts aob .10 inches) conts to move east across the area this evening while drier air to the north keeping the nrn neck/lwr Md ern shore dry. Temps 40-45. High res data basically keeps the same conditions going thru 06Z then begins to shift the main batch of pcpn along and south of I64. Thus, adjusted grids a bit according to current conditions. Highest PoPs across the sw, quickly tapering off to chc north of I64. Staying dry across the lwr MD ern shore. Just enough dry air progged to come in from the north to allow dew point temps to fall a bit from current readings, thus overnight lows should end up in the upr 30s-lwr 40s, except mid 30s lwr Md ern shore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Friday... Sat will feature competing influences on local temperatures. The aforementioned surface high to the north will slide off the New England coast in response to deepening low pressure across the central Plains moving northeast into the Midwest. An in- situ CAD wedge airmass will be entrenched across the Piedmont, as widespread clouds and pcpn help to reinforce the near sfc stable layer. At the same time, a warm front will lift northward twd the area fm the south. There will likely be a sharp gradient in temperatures across the region on Sat, with highs ranging fm the lower 40s across the far northwest to the lower 50s across the extrm southeast. Widespread pcpn (possibly at least moderate rain) is expected over the area Sat aftn thru Sat night, as the warm front lifts into and acrs the region. Winds become SE then S in the wake of the front with steady rain transitioning to showers after the warm front passes. Lows Sat night will range fm the upper 30s extrm NW, to around 50 extrm SE. A cold front will approach the region Sun morning, then push acrs the area and off the coast Sun aftn into Sun evening. Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn into early Sun evening behind the cold front. Rain chances will come to an end as the front crosses the region, with a clearing sky expected fm west to east. Storm total precip will average between 0.75-1 inch with the highest totals expected across the southwest/west quadrant of the area where 1.25-1.50" is possible. Given the recent wet weather, and what is expected to fall this weekend, we will certainly see some river flooding issues into early next week. Downsloping westerly winds and increasing late-Feb sun angle will help temps to warm considerably Sun aftn, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected across most of the region. Decreasing dewpoints and cooler temps will filter into the area for Sun night and Mon, as high pressure builds in fm the NW. Clear and chilly Sun night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to lower 40s. Sunny on Mon with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Friday... Generally dry conditions thru Thurs as Canadian high pressure tracks across the northern states. Models show a coastal trof dvlpng Wed. GFS wetter than ECMWF so kept slght chc shwrs along the coast Wed. Models differ Fri with the GFS quickly returning moisture on an incrg ssw flow while the ECMWF holds off pcpn until Fri night with a low tracking ne along the coast. Will carry chc rain Fri, increasing PoPS a bit Fri night. Highs each day mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Lows in the 30s to near 40 se. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Saturday... Unsettled pattern will continue through the forecast period. Widespread light to moderate rain is expected through the overnight at all by SBY where dry low level air courtesy of high pressure to the north has kept precip at bay. Seeing occasional reductions in visibility to MVFR levels in areas with heavier precip. Included TEMPO groups at RIC, ORF, and ECG to cover this threat overnight. CIGs visibility will gradually lower through the period as a warm front attempts to make northward progress on Saturday. CIGs become IFR by late morning and potentially LIFR into the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will generally remain out the northeast through the period but may become southeasterly at ORF and ECG as the warm front makes northward progress late in the period. Outlook...A cold front will push acrs the area and offshore Sun, with conditions improving to VFR fm west to east behind the front. Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Saturday... Strong sfc high pressure centered north of the area will move east off the northern mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast this aftn, before pushing well offshore tonight/early Sunday. Meanwhile, a sfc trough of low pressure extends east across the southern states and ENE off the SE coast. While conditions are fairly benign over the marine area early this morning, a much more active period is expected over the next few days. Seas avg only 2 ft north to 3-4 ft south and Bay waves are mostly 1 foot or less. We will see some increase in winds later this morning into the aftn as the sfc trough deepens a bit off the Carolina coast. The models generally keep sub-SCA conditions in place this aftn/evening but will need to monitor the potential for low-end SCA conditions over the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters S of Cape Charles. The boundary continues to lift N later tonight, with winds ramping down a bit, then shifting to the SSE to SSW overnight/early Sunday morning. With the approach of a cold front from the west on Sunday and a significant tightening of the pressure gradient, expect SCA conditions to develop over all zones by late morning or aftn (SW winds sustained to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt). As this is 3rd period, did not raise any SCA headlines yet. The front is expected to move across the region late Sun aftn into Sun evening, with a brief surge of potentially higher winds possible in the immediate wake of the front with pressure rises of 7-9 mb/6hr for the period ending Sun evening. A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island for Sun night through Mon where a prolonged period of W to NW winds gusting to ~40 kt is expected. For the remainder of the area, opted against a Gale Watch given only the brief period of potentially higher winds with the front late Sat aftn/evening. The offshore flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6 ft. For Mon, a gradual diminishing of the winds/seas is expected, with the strongest winds over the northern coastal waters. By Monday night, high pressure is building into the area and with the cold advection weakening, should see conditions relaxing below SCA levels. This area of high pressure will slowly track across the region through the mid week time period with generally benign conditions expected through midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 900 PM EST Friday... Flood warnings cont portions of the James, Nottoway and Meherrin rivers thru the weekend. See FLSAKQ for details. Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches could see some locations climb at least into action stage if not reaching minor flood at locations like Farmville. The amount of rain will be key as the soil across the region remains saturated lead to much of the rain running off not soaking in. && .CLIMATE... As of 330 AM EST Saturday... Very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday but record highs are currently not forecast. For reference they are listed below: * Site: Record High for Sun 2/24 * RIC: 82 (1985) * ORF: 82 (2012) * SBY: 77 (2012) * ECG: 79 (1985) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...TMG/RHR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...LKB HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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