Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 092003 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure off the South Carolina coast, will continue to intensify while tracking northeast to near Cape Hatteras by early this evening. The low will then be slow to push east farther off the Carolina coast Monday into Monday night. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1200 PM EST Sunday... Latest analysis indicates ~1008 mb sfc low pressure just offshore from Charleston SC, with ~1030+ mb sfc high pressure centered from southern New England to eastern PA. Still snowing here at AKQ with 2" on the ground as of 12 noon. Overall through noon, amounts have ranged from 6"+ in south central VA to 2-4" across metro Richmond, with lesser amounts to the east. A consensus for the best frontogenesis this aftn will be aligned WSW to ENE from south central VA to the VA eastern shore. NAM remains higher with overall QPF than the GFS, though some of the high-res guidance resembles the NAM. Also, the latest 12Z GFS has trended higher in QPF and aligns well with the expected evolution of the frontogenesis from 18-00Z. Of course areas within the eastern 1/2 of this best forcing (far SE VA) have already turned to rain so accumulating heavy snow will not be an issue. Areas to the west however have been updated with increased snow totals. Based on a slower arrival of the warmer marine airmass from the SE (with the sfc low well to our S), snow amounts have been raised over portions of the I-95 corridor and in the southern/central Piedmont. A winter storm warning was raised for portions of southside VA where now 3-6" of snowfall is anticipated. Amounts over metro Richmond will avg 4-8" (locally up to 10" in southern Chesterfield/Amelia), and portions of the Piedmont from South Hill to Farmville will avg 8-12" with locally higher amounts. Highs today will range from the upper 20s/lower 30s in the VA piedmont west of I-95, to the lower to mid 40s near the Bay and coastal areas. In addition, with the tightening gradient between the high to the north and the low to the south, gusty NE winds can be expected especially near the coast. As such, a wind advisory is in effect for Virginia Beach and Currituck for winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 500 AM EST Sunday... Expect the precipitation to gradually diminish and end fm NW to SE late tonight into Mon morning, although the warm nose hangs on, as there is very little cold advection as the system moves up the coast. As such, there actually may be a little freezing rain/drizzle overnight across the western tier and with that in mind, have opted to keep any headlines going until 09z Mon despite the precip diminishing. Expect improving conditions acrs most of the area fm Mon aftn thru Mon night, as high pressure starts to build in fm the NNW. However, lingering low pressure off the Carolina coast will maintain more clouds and a slgt to sml chance for pcpn over extrm scntrl/SE VA and NE NC. Highs on Mon will range fm the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows Mon night will range thru the 20s acrs most of the area, and in the lower to mid 30s over SE VA and NE NC. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Sunday... Strong amplification of trough aloft through the MS Valley expected Thu which will progress E Fri through Sat. Milder air along w/ increasing moisture will be spreading NE into the mid- Atlantic region ahead of potent lo pres and its associated cold front (beginning late Thu). That lo pres system is expected to track into the OH Valley Fri/Fri night...then continue into New England during next weekend. Ramping up PoPs (to 70-90%) from Fri morning into Fri night...then will the cold front pushing off the coast on Sat...will be lowering PoPs (from W-E). Lows Wed night from the m-u20s inland to the m30s along the coast. Highs Thu in the l-m40s W to the u40s-l50s E. Lows Thu night in the l-m30s inland to the m40s at the coast. Highs Fri from the l50s far W to the l60s in far SE VA-NE NC. Lows Fri night in the 40s...except l50s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sat/Sun in the m-u50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Sunday... The storm is continuing to unfold across the region. Worst conditions currently at RIC with LIFR and moderate to heavy snow. Expect these conditions to continue at RIC before gradually diminishing after sunset while possibly changing to a rain/snow mix. At ORF/PHF and ECG, expect IFR conditions with generally moderate rain. May see brief LIFR at times this afternoon with any heavier rain. These sites will also see improved conditions especailly overnight as the system moves out to sea. SBY will be largely spared from the worst conditions. May see some light rain/snow at SBY later this afternoon or this evening, but at worst MVFR conditions. On Monday, all sites should become VFR as high pressure slowly starts to build in from the NW and drier air moves in. In addition, N-NE winds will be rather gusty, especially at ORF and ECG through this evening. Gusts to 35 kt certainly possible. Low pressure lingers off the Outer Banks Monday into Monday night resulting in locally breezy conditions for ORF/ECG. High pressure prevails Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 420 AM EST Sunday... Low pressure is approaching from the WSW early this morning as high pressure remains anchored N of the region. An ENE wind will increase to 10-20kt with seas building to 3-5ft, and waves of 2-3ft in the Bay. Low pressure then deepens off the Carolina coast this aftn into tonight. A NE wind will increase to 15-25kt N, to 25-30kt with gusts of 35-40kt for the Lower Bay, Lower James, and 30-40kt for the ocean S of Cape Charles and the Sound. Wind gusts to 45kt are expected for the srn ocean zones. Seas build to 5-8ft N, to 8-12ft S (12-15ft possible off the Currituck Outer Banks), and 3-5ft waves in the Bay, and locally 4-8ft in the Mouth of the Bay. Gale warnings have been added for the Lower James and ocean from Parramore Is. to Chincoteague. Ramp-up SCAs have been cancelled and other Gale and SCA flags remain as is, with the exception of SCAs being extended into Monday. Low pressure pulls offshore tonight into Monday. However, secondary development is possible by Monday night, before tracking offshore Tuesday. SCA conditions likely linger into early this week. High pressure returns by midweek. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 725 AM EST Sunday... Low pressure will strengthen off the Carolina coast today into tonight. A strong NE wind is expected to push tidal anomalies to 1.0-2.0 ft above normal from the Lower Bay S to Outer Banks Currituck. This has the potential to produce minor tidal flooding tonight into Monday. High tide this evening is the lower of the astronomical, with the higher occurring Monday morning. Additionally, minor beach erosion is expected due to large breaking nearshore waves. A high surf advisory is in effect for VA Beach and Outer Banks Currituck from late this aftn through Monday morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ012. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-079>082-087-088-092-509>516. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ064-075- 076-083-089-090-093-517>522. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ098. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ650. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-652. Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MRD MARINE...AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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