-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
331
FXUS61 KAKQ 131406
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1006 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible into the mid week period
before heat builds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1005 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms are expected again today, mainly west of the
  Chesapeake Bay.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the slow-moving
  convection this afternoon and evening with continued threat
  for localized flash flooding.

Cloud cover has struggled to break up across a majority of our
forecast area this morning, which has led to a delay in temperatures
increasing. This has likely stunted morning convective development
like we experienced yesterday. A quick look at SPC mesoanalysis
shows that MLCAPE is sitting at between 500-1500 J/kg this morning,
which is still modest for this time of day. Soundings from across
the region measured a range of 1.55-2.10" PW values and
negligible shear values. A weak front remains draped across our
area, which will likely serve as the main initial trigger for
convection. Outflow boundaries will then become the secondary
lifting mechanism that will induce additional storm development
as the day. progresses. Another day of scattered convection is
in store for the local area, with a similar environment to what
we have seen over the past few days. Instability will increase
as the cloud cover breaks and temperatures are able to rise.
Convective development will likely start a little later than
yesterday, with early to mid- afternoon the timeframe expected.
With the heavy rainfall the Tri-Cities saw yesterday and the
very low flash flood guidance for that area, we are considering
doing a targeted Flash Flood Watch for the Richmond metro and
adjacent areas. We will continue to monitor convective
development trends over the next few hours and see how the
atmosphere has recovered since yesterday wash out. WPC has the
western portion of our forecast area in a Slight ERO, and areas
from the Richmond metro though just west of the Hampton Roads
area in a Marginal ERO. Temperatures today are forecast to
reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Areas immediately along
the coast and Eastern Shore are forecast to reach the lower to
mid 80s thanks to the onshore flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday, resulting
  in greater coverage of showers and storms. A Flood Watch may
  be necessary for portions of the area.

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday with additional rounds of
  showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area.

Warm and humid again on Monday with greater coverage of showers and
storms expected, mainly across the western 2/3 of the area. Sounding
like a broken record here but we will again see ample instability
and weak shear along with anomalously moist conditions, resulting in
slow-moving showers and storms. Depending on how today plays out, a
Flood Watch may be necessary for portions of the area as cumulative
days of rainfall and soil saturation require less additional
rainfall to flood. WPC has most of the area in a slight ERO with a
marginal ERO from eastern North Carolina NE through Norfolk and into
the Eastern Shore. The highest PoPs are focused west of the
Chesapeake. SPC does not have a severe risk for the area on Monday
but gusty winds will certainly be possible in water-loaded
downdrafts. Showers and storms likely linger later into Monday
evening and even the overnight hours as the focus for precip
shifts east toward the coast. High temps range from the upper
80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. Lows again in the
70s.

The front stalls west or NW of the area on Tuesday, bringing yet
another day of showers and storms with heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. More clouds through the day result in cooler high temps,
generally in the mid 80s inland with upper 80s along the coast.
Highest PoPs are favored over the Piedmont, tapering to chance along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Stagnant pattern continues mid to late week with daily shower and
  storm chances

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Rinse and repeat pattern continues Wed-Sat with storm chances each
afternoon and evening. Upper ridging builds across the area Thursday
and especially Friday, resulting in the potential for Heat
Advisories. Rising heights aloft argue for lower convective coverage
but have continued with the blended guidance in the extended
forecast which maintains 30-50% PoPs (highest W). Highs generally in
the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, increasing to the low/mid 90s on
Thursday and Friday. Friday still looks to be hottest day of the
forecast period. Heat indices 100-104F are likely Thursday with some
areas of 105+F on Friday. Perhaps a touch cooler on Saturday with
triple digit heat indices confined to the southern third of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Wide mix of flying weather out there this morning with IFR most
widespread along US 58. All terminals become VFR over the next
hour or two. Light and variable winds this morning become E or
SE this afternoon. Showers and storms are possible again this
afternoon but low confidence in coverage precludes mention in
the TAF for now.

Outlook: Another round of isolated to scattered afternoon-late
evening tstms are expected to recur each day into early next
week, along with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

High pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning and
extends SW toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A trough is
located inland over the Piedmont, with weak low pressure well E of
the VA coast. The wind is primarily E 5-10kt early this morning,
with seas ~2ft, and waves 1ft to occasionally 2ft in the Ches. Bay.
Additionally, patchy marine fog is possible early this morning. A
similar pressure pattern continues today into this evening with the
wind becoming SE and generally remaining 5-10kt, although a later
aftn/evening diurnal increase to 8-12kt is expected in the Ches.
Bay. High pressure retreats E of the Canadian Maritimes later
tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, subtropical high pressure rebuilds
off the Southeast coast through the middle of the week. This will
allow the wind to become S to SW 5-10kt early in the week, with a
mid-aftn to early evening sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE Monday
and Tuesday. The pressure gradient tightens Wednesday night into
Thursday as low pressure tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St.
Lawrence Valley. This will potentially bring SCA conditions in a SW
wind, with the best chc in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes by
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front
dropping to the region. Seas will mainly be ~2ft through Tuesday and
then 2-3ft by Wednesday, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday night
and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Aftn/evening showers/tstms will have limited coverage over the
marine area today, with higher chances during the aftn/evening hours
Monday through Wednesday. The main hazards with tstms will be brief
strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy
rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/NB