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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the southeastern
states into Saturday, as high pressure builds eastward from the
Great Lakes into New England. The front will lift back north as
a warm front Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front
will cross the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 900 PM EST Friday...

Latest MSAS has a stalled frontal boundary across the sern states
with a sfc trof extending north along the mts. Meanwhile, 1032 mb
sfc high was located over Michigan. A steady steam of moisture
in the form of mainly light rain (amounts aob .10 inches) conts
to move east across the area this evening while drier air to the
north keeping the nrn neck/lwr Md ern shore dry. Temps 40-45.

High res data basically keeps the same conditions going thru 06Z
then begins to shift the main batch of pcpn along and south of
I64. Thus, adjusted grids a bit according to current conditions.
Highest PoPs across the sw, quickly tapering off to chc north
of I64. Staying dry across the lwr MD ern shore. Just enough dry
air progged to come in from the north to allow dew point temps
to fall a bit from current readings, thus overnight lows should
end up in the upr 30s-lwr 40s, except mid 30s lwr Md ern shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Sat will feature competing influences on local temperatures.
The aforementioned surface high to the north will slide off the
New England coast in response to deepening low pressure across
the central Plains moving northeast into the Midwest. An in-
situ CAD wedge airmass will be entrenched across the Piedmont,
as widespread clouds and pcpn help to reinforce the near sfc
stable layer. At the same time, a warm front will lift northward
twd the area fm the south. There will likely be a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the region on Sat, with highs
ranging fm the lower 40s across the far northwest to the lower
50s across the extrm southeast. Widespread pcpn (possibly at
least moderate rain) is expected over the area Sat aftn thru
Sat night, as the warm front lifts into and acrs the region.
Winds become SE then S in the wake of the front with steady
rain transitioning to showers after the warm front passes. Lows
Sat night will range fm the upper 30s extrm NW, to around 50
extrm SE.

A cold front will approach the region Sun morning, then push
acrs the area and off the coast Sun aftn into Sun evening.
Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn into early
Sun evening behind the cold front. Rain chances will come to an
end as the front crosses the region, with a clearing sky
expected fm west to east. Storm total precip will average
between 0.75-1 inch with the highest totals expected across the
southwest/west quadrant of the area where 1.25-1.50" is
possible. Given the recent wet weather, and what is expected to
fall this weekend, we will certainly see some river flooding
issues into early next week.

Downsloping westerly winds and increasing late-Feb sun angle
will help temps to warm considerably Sun aftn, with upper 60s
to mid 70s expected across most of the region. Decreasing
dewpoints and cooler temps will filter into the area for Sun
night and Mon, as high pressure builds in fm the NW. Clear and
chilly Sun night with lows ranging fm the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Sunny on Mon with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Generally dry conditions thru Thurs as Canadian high pressure
tracks across the northern states. Models show a coastal trof
dvlpng Wed. GFS wetter than ECMWF so kept slght chc shwrs along
the coast Wed. Models differ Fri with the GFS quickly returning
moisture on an incrg ssw flow while the ECMWF holds off pcpn
until Fri night with a low tracking ne along the coast. Will
carry chc rain Fri, increasing PoPS a bit Fri night.

Highs each day mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Lows in the 30s
to near 40 se.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Saturday...

Unsettled pattern will continue through the forecast period.
Widespread light to moderate rain is expected through the
overnight at all by SBY where dry low level air courtesy of high
pressure to the north has kept precip at bay. Seeing occasional
reductions in visibility to MVFR levels in areas with heavier
precip. Included TEMPO groups at RIC, ORF, and ECG to cover this
threat overnight. CIGs visibility will gradually lower through
the period as a warm front attempts to make northward progress
on Saturday. CIGs become IFR by late morning and potentially
LIFR into the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will generally
remain out the northeast through the period but may become
southeasterly at ORF and ECG as the warm front makes northward
progress late in the period.


Outlook...A cold front will push acrs the area and offshore
Sun, with conditions improving to VFR fm west to east behind
the front. Southwest winds will become west and gusty Sun aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Strong sfc high pressure centered north of the area will move
east off the northern mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast
this aftn, before pushing well offshore tonight/early Sunday.
Meanwhile, a sfc trough of low pressure extends east across the
southern states and ENE off the SE coast. While conditions are
fairly benign over the marine area early this morning, a much
more active period is expected over the next few days. Seas avg only
2 ft north to 3-4 ft south and Bay waves are mostly 1 foot or
less. We will see some increase in winds later this morning into
the aftn as the sfc trough deepens a bit off the Carolina coast.
The models generally keep sub-SCA conditions in place this
aftn/evening but will need to monitor the potential for low-end
SCA conditions over the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters S
of Cape Charles. The boundary continues to lift N later
tonight, with winds ramping down a bit, then shifting to the SSE
to SSW overnight/early Sunday morning.

With the approach of a cold front from the west on Sunday and a
significant tightening of the pressure gradient, expect SCA
conditions to develop over all zones by late morning or aftn (SW
winds sustained to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt). As this
is 3rd period, did not raise any SCA headlines yet. The front is
expected to move across the region late Sun aftn into Sun
evening, with a brief surge of potentially higher winds
possible in the immediate wake of the front with pressure rises
of 7-9 mb/6hr for the period ending Sun evening. A Gale Watch
has been issued for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island for
Sun night through Mon where a prolonged period of W to NW winds
gusting to ~40 kt is expected. For the remainder of the area,
opted against a Gale Watch given only the brief period of
potentially higher winds with the front late Sat aftn/evening.
The offshore flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6
ft. For Mon, a gradual diminishing of the winds/seas is
expected, with the strongest winds over the northern coastal
waters. By Monday night, high pressure is building into the
area and with the cold advection weakening, should see
conditions relaxing below SCA levels. This area of high
pressure will slowly track across the region through the mid
week time period with generally benign conditions expected
through midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 900 PM EST Friday...

Flood warnings cont portions of the James, Nottoway and Meherrin
rivers thru the weekend. See FLSAKQ for details.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches could see some locations
climb at least into action stage if not reaching minor flood at
locations like Farmville. The amount of rain will be key as the
soil across the region remains saturated lead to much of the
rain running off not soaking in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday but record highs
are currently not forecast. For reference they are listed below:

* Site: Record High for Sun 2/24

* RIC:  82 (1985)
* ORF:  82 (2012)
* SBY:  77 (2012)
* ECG:  79 (1985)



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...TMG/RHR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ