833
FXUS65 KABQ 041114 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Heat with highs in the 100s continues at Roswell today,
spreading to other lower elevation areas in the Rio Grande Valley
and eastern NM Wednesday and Thursday and persisting to Saturday.
This includes the ABQ metro area Thursday. Heat induced illnesses
will be a main concern for those unable to get out of the heat each
day. Increased moisture enters eastern NM Wednesday morning,
allowing for an afternoon thunderstorm or two along the east slopes
of the central mountain chain. Thunderstorm coverage steadily
expands mainly along and east of the Rio Grande Valley Thursday and
through the weekend. Any storms developing along and west of the
central mountain chain will mostly be dry in nature. High
temperatures finally back down from the 100s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A band of cirrus stretching from central NM northeastward across the
Front Range denotes an upper level trough axis crossing the southern
Rockies this morning. Fast northwest flow aloft in the wake of this
trough axis can be seen by widespread high clouds surging southeast
from the Great Basin into the Four Corners. Northwest winds will
trend stronger today across central and western NM with many areas
gusting to between 25 and 35 mph by early afternoon. Weak moisture
advection in this pattern will allow surface dewpoints to rise and
minimum humidity will not be as desiccating as the past two days.
Thicker patches of high clouds will help to keep max temps near
Monday`s values for central and western NM. The forecast max today
of 104F at Roswell is only 1 degree shy of a `Heat Advisory`
again. If clouds clear for longer than anticipated we may reach
105+. Nonetheless, it will still be very hot for a 3rd day in a
row so folks are encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid heat-
related illnesses.

Meanwhile, a north to northeast wind shift will enter northeast NM
this afternoon along a moist, backdoor cold front. Abundant moisture
that has been pooling over the TX/OK panhandle the past several days
will surge southwestward into eastern NM behind this front tonight.
Several CAMs, including the HREF, show a small area of storms firing
up along the boundary late this afternoon and evening near the TX/NM
border of northeast NM. Global models and several other CAMs do not
initiate storms later today which limits forecast confidence. If
convection does strengthen along the boundary then moisture will get
a stronger push southwestward into eastern NM tonight. A light gap
wind may develop in the RGV with moisture advection westward as far
west  as the Cont Dvd (based on the latest NAM3km). If there is no
convection then the front will move more slowly to the west and
potentially not even reach the central mt chain. The westward extent
and depth of the moisture will have implications on max temps across
eastern NM on Wednesday. There will still be a slight cooling trend
behind the boundary and confidence is high that Roswell will remain
below 105F. An upper level ridge building over AZ and western NM
during this period will allow max temps to trend much warmer over
western NM. This upper ridge along with potential moisture and weak
convergence along the central mt chain and nearby highlands may lead
to some terrain dominated storms by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The ridge of high pressure builds to 594dm by Thursday,
squarely placed over NM as higher low-level moisture remains across
eastern NM. There are notable discrepancies in MOS guidance
regarding high temperatures Thursday for eastern NM, specifically
with the NAM MOS pushing more Gulf moisture into eastern NM compared
to the GFS and ECMWF, resulting in a 99F forecast at Roswell. The
drier GFS and ECMWF MOS solutions advertise 107 and 106 at Roswell.
Continued to take a compromise between these two scenarios and kept
Roswell just below Heat Advisory threshold at 104. Meanwhile, went
with the warmer solutions for areas along and west of the Rio Grande
Valley given the high confidence low moisture scenario for this
area. The ABQ Sunport has a forecast high of 98, with valley areas
along the Rio Grande reaching 100. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will favor the east slopes of the central
mountain chain and a surface convergent boundary draped west to east
over northeastern NM. Any isolated high based storms through west-
central NM will be dry in nature. Outflow from storms across eastern
NM will try to push low-level moisture westward further into the Rio
Grande Valley. This will yield an expansion of scattered dry and wet
thunderstorms along and east of the Rio Grande Valley Friday
afternoon. Saturday sees another round of this basic weather pattern
as the 592dm ridge of high pressure remains centered over NM and low
level moisture remains mostly along and east of the Rio Grande
Valley.

Thereafter, the GFS and ECMWF both show a shortwave perturbation
sliding over the apex of the ridge that sends down a backdoor
frontal boundary into eastern NM. The ridge itself is also breaking
down with the approach of an upper low over the northern Baja.
Increased moisture across the eastern plains behind the frontal
boundary and lowering pressure heights results in a 5 to 8 degree
drop in high temperatures areawide Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm
coverage mainly along and east of the Rio Grande Valley will depend
on how close the aforementioned upper low over the northern Baja
tracks into the Desert Southwest. A closer approach would bring
further diffluence aloft aiding the development of more convection
and thunderstorms. If this is the case, Sunday has the potential to
see the most widespread thunderstorm activity of the forecast
period. But will have to wait and see how these various features
lineup with each other.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An upper level trough swinging thru NM this morning will generate
gusty northwest winds across much of the region today. Gusts of 20
to 30 kt will be common from KFMN to KABQ/KAEG and KCQC by 11am.
High level turbulence will be widespread with the trough passage.
A northerly wind shift with better moisture over northeast NM may
lead to an area of SHRA/TS east of KTCC this afternoon. This area
of storms may give an assist to the westward moisture push later
this evening across eastern NM. Winds will shift out of the east
across the plains with slight potential for an area of low cigs to
develop from KLVS to KCQC around sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Northwest winds will strengthen today with the strongest gusts from
near Farmington to Albuquerque and Clines Corners. These speeds will
intersect marginally critical humidity between 12 and 15% along with
hot temperatures. Low level moisture is expected to shift westward
into eastern NM tonight. This moisture may help develop a few late
day showers and storms near the central mt chain. Some dry lightning
is possible depending on how deep the moisture increases over the
area. An upper level ridge will build into western NM Wednesday then
move directly over the state Thursday and Friday. Moisture beneath
this ridge may allow terrain-dominated showers and storms to develop
each afternoon. A mixture of wet/dry activity is expected over
western NM with the best chance for wetting rainfall along and east
of the central mt chain. Temps will be very hot thru the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  41  90  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  83  50  88  55 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  86  46  91  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  82  51  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  86  47  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  83  51  89  55 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  86  60  89  63 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  82  56  88  59 /   0   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  90  46  95  50 /   0   0   5   5
Glenwood........................  92  62  98  64 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  79  44  84  49 /   0   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  59  85  63 /   0   0  10   0
Pecos...........................  84  55  86  58 /   0   0  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  78  49  82  53 /   0   5  10   0
Red River.......................  73  43  76  48 /   0   5  10   0
Angel Fire......................  77  39  80  42 /   5   5  10   0
Taos............................  85  46  89  51 /   0   0  10   0
Mora............................  83  49  83  53 /   0   5  10   0
Espanola........................  91  55  94  58 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  84  58  86  62 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  89  55  91  60 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  64  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  62  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  61  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  63  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  95  57  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  93  61  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  94  56  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  93  61  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  94  57  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  89  61  92  65 /   0   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  92  62  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  97  64  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  58  85  61 /   0   0  10   0
Tijeras.........................  87  57  89  61 /   0   0  10   0
Edgewood........................  88  54  89  57 /   0   0  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  51  91  53 /   0   0  10   0
Clines Corners..................  84  54  85  58 /   0   0  10   0
Mountainair.....................  87  55  89  58 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  87  55  89  58 /   0   0  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  92  62  95  65 /   0   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  85  58  86  61 /   0   0  30   5
Capulin.........................  81  51  85  55 /   5   5  10   0
Raton...........................  87  51  89  54 /   5   5  10   0
Springer........................  88  53  90  56 /   5   5  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  86  53  85  56 /   0   5  10   0
Clayton.........................  87  58  91  62 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  88  55  88  59 /  10   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  95  61  95  65 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  93  61  91  63 /   0   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  96  61  95  66 /  10   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  97  64  95  66 /   0   5   0   5
Portales........................  99  64  96  65 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  97  63  95  66 /   0   5   0   5
Roswell......................... 104  70 101  71 /   0   0   5   5
Picacho.........................  95  63  94  63 /   0   0  20   5
Elk.............................  94  60  92  61 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42