Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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656 FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1136 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Smoke from area wildfires will be noticable for at least the next couple of days and may bring poor air quality to some areas. Otherwise, expect a warming trend through at least Tuesday with temperatures rising above normal most areas. Albuquerque is forecast to hit a high of 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday. A backdoor front will bring moisture to eastern NM Tuesday and will fuel a few late day storms that may become severe. The front will continue southwest across the area Tuesday night and bring gusty east canyon winds to the Rio Grande Valley. Chances for storms will stay mostly across eastern NM through the work week, with some storms possibly becoming severe near the OK and TX borders. The heat will turn up a bit more over the weekend as high pressure moves north from Mexico over the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 A ridge of high pressure will build over the forecast area today enabling high temperatures to climb from near to around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. In addition, winds will be less gusty than they were Sunday, shifting out of the southwest in most places. Smoke plumes should be less vigorously developed today, but they may extend east and northeastward enough during the afternoon and evening enough to reach Taos, Angel Fire, Capitan, Arabela, and Encinoso. This evening, a weak perturbation clipping northeast NM and a backdoor cold front sagging into northeast areas may trigger isolated virga showers and even a few thunderstorms near the CO border mainly near and east of Raton Pass. Dry microbursts could produce wind gusts up to 45 mph there. The backdoor front should reach the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early on Tuesday, and get tied up somewhere on western parts of the east central plains further south. Moisture with the front and a disturbance embedded in the ridge aloft will trigger scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon mainly from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, and across the far eastern plains. On the eastern plains, bulk shear in the 35-45 KT range, and CAPE around 1500-4000 J/KG, should enable some severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 A few strong to severe storms will continue into the evening hours Tuesday as they advance east toward the OK/TX borders. The backdoor front, aided by convective outflow, will race southwest into central NM Tuesday night and result in a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below advisory threshold at this time. Going forward from Wednesday through Friday, daytime heating triggered storms will favor eastern NM with the best chances for severe storms closer to the OK/TX borders where greater instability and higher surface dewpoint temperatures will exist. There is some spread among the 00Z medium range model solutions with regard to a northern stream trough moving across the central/southern Rockies on Saturday and a trailing ridge. So, lower forecast confidence for the weekend at this time, but above normal temperatures are a solid bet as the upper high over Mexico starts to creep northward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 During the afternoon and early evening, smoke from the Indios Fire just west of Abiquiu Reservoir is forecast to spread east and northeast of the fire with potential visibility impacts around KSKX and possibly KAXX. This smoke plume is expected to move off to the west and northwest tonight as surface winds turn east and southeast. Meanwhile, smoke from the Blue 2 fire in the northern Sacramento Mountains is forecast to impact portions of Lincoln County to the northeast and east of the fire location including KSRR, where ceiling and visibility impacts are possible. Smoke is then forecast to drain into the river valleys below these fires once again tonight, impacting the Espanola Valley, Capitan, and the greater Ruidoso area including KSRR through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 After dry weather today, moisture will slosh into the eastern plains nightly with backdoor fronts, then mix eastward each afternoon with an active dryline through the end of the week. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the moisture, which could result in new fire starts in the Sangres. Elsewhere it will be dry and warm with high temperatures near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 84 48 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 38 84 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 83 41 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 78 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 84 42 85 43 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 81 45 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 83 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 79 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 86 40 87 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 90 51 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 41 77 40 / 0 0 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 78 54 80 54 / 0 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 78 50 81 50 / 0 0 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 47 75 47 / 5 5 30 20 Red River....................... 69 37 71 37 / 5 5 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 71 25 72 28 / 0 0 30 20 Taos............................ 79 39 81 43 / 0 0 20 10 Mora............................ 77 45 78 45 / 0 0 30 20 Espanola........................ 86 50 89 50 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 80 54 83 53 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 55 92 56 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 56 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 89 49 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 89 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 89 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 89 57 92 57 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 89 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 84 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 88 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 92 56 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 81 50 84 49 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 84 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 43 85 47 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 79 48 81 49 / 0 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 82 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 83 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 87 57 89 55 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 81 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 76 46 76 48 / 10 10 60 40 Raton........................... 81 45 81 48 / 5 10 50 20 Springer........................ 81 46 83 51 / 5 0 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 80 47 80 49 / 0 0 20 30 Clayton......................... 84 53 81 54 / 5 10 50 50 Roy............................. 81 50 82 53 / 5 5 40 40 Conchas......................... 89 53 90 58 / 0 0 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 87 52 89 55 / 0 0 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 90 56 90 57 / 0 0 20 40 Clovis.......................... 92 58 94 58 / 0 0 20 30 Portales........................ 94 56 97 58 / 0 0 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 91 53 94 58 / 0 0 10 20 Roswell......................... 98 61 101 63 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 91 57 93 55 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 91 55 92 52 / 0 0 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...33