Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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438 FXUS65 KABQ 270558 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Pleasant warm weather with a light breeze is expected for Memorial Day tomorrow. Storm chances return to eastern New Mexico Tuesday and will likely stick around through the end of the week. A few storms may be strong to severe in the east Tuesday afternoon and later in the week as well. Gusty east canyon winds are also possible in east Albuquerque Tuesday night. Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal averages throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 A departing upper level trough has kept breezy to locally strong northwest winds over the region today. These winds will diminish quickly after sunset, even along the east slopes of the central mt chain and nearby highlands. A weak surface boundary will move to the southwest across eastern NM tonight as a 1012mb surface high moves down the Front Range. Other than a subtle northeast wind shift and slightly higher humidity, there will be very little impact to the sensible weather. Flow aloft will back from northwest to west thru Monday as a weak shortwave ridge moves quickly northeast across the Great Basin. Surface winds will trend even lighter on Monday. However, a large dry intrusion arriving with the upper ridge will keep it very dry with humidity below 10% in many areas. The exception may be closer to the CO border where a weak mid level speed max interacts with sufficient mid level moisture to allow for a few high-based gusty showers and sprinkles by late day. The shortwave ridge will break down quickly Monday night with flow aloft becoming west to southwest over NM. A subtle northeast wind is expected to move into northeast NM Monday evening as a weak cold front approaching from southeast CO becomes stationary over the area. Meanwhile, moist low level return flow will be spreading west into east-central and northeast NM thru Monday night. A few more showers may develop over far northeast NM in this area of improving low level convergence and deepening moisture. Some low clouds are even possible by daybreak Tuesday over far eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Convectively driven moist easterly flow from storms over TX will likely continue in eastern NM through early Tuesday, forcing a moisture boundary to stall out somewhere in eastern NM. The amplified ridge directly overhead will also help to keep dry westerlies from pushing this moisture back to the east during the afternoon. While instability will be high across far eastern NM, low clouds may inhibit convection from developing here and instead force it to develop further west closer to the central mountain chain along the stalled boundary. If discrete cells are able to develop across the northeast or east-central plains, they will likely become strong to severe. 0-6 km bulk shear around 30kts looks marginal for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates favor strong pulsy updrafts. Convective outflows will likely generate at least a weak east canyon wind in eastern Albuquerque Tuesday night. Tuesday also looks like the warmest day of the week given the aformentioned amplified ridge overhead. The ridge will begin to shift east on Wednesday, but westerly flow should remain weak enough for more convection in eastern NM. There`s a chance the ridge will be too strong that it suppresses convection in the absence of strong forcing, but a trailing shortwave could help to counteract that. Another east wind could impact east Albuquerque Wednesday night, depending on convective activity in the east. Shower and storm chances will stick around through the end of the week in eastern NM. Troughing over the Intermountain West could push moisture to the east later in the week, but there is uncertainty on whether this feature will be deep enough to bring strong westerlies into New Mexico. Temperatures will hover near to a few degrees above average mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 A ridge of high pressure will build over NM on Monday with lighter winds. High temperatures will climb near to as much as 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, making density altitude an increasingly important consideration for flights near complex terrain. Smoke from the Indios Fire on the western edge of the Chama River Canyon Wilderness will drain into the lower elevations around Abiquiu Lake and Espanola potentially impacting ceilings and visibilities in the morning. During the afternoon, smoke from the Indios Fire is progged to remain pretty much in the same area with more of an impact on ceilings than visibilities, especially close to the fire. Meanwhile, smoke from the Blue 2 Fire in the northern Sacramento Mountains is forecast to mainly impact south central and southeast Lincoln County today, including KSRR, where occasional ceiling and visibility restrictions will be possible in the morning, then mainly ceiling impacts in the afternoon. Ceiling and visibility impacts will probably redevelop in the drainage basins below both of these fires again Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Winds have trended lighter over the region today. However, northwest winds have been strong with near-critical RH to produce localized critical fire weather over the Central Highlands today, mainly in the area from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn. Winds will taper off quickly this evening. Overnight humidity recovery will still be poor to fair in most areas however winds will be much lighter than last night. Monday will also be very dry again but with even lighter winds than today. A weak boundary will move southwest across eastern NM Monday night with significantly better humidity recovery westward to the Pecos Valley. This moisture will allow for greater coverage of showers and storms over eastern NM beginning Tuesday. Some of this moisture may even make it to the central mt chain with some high-based dry storms possible, mainly in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A few storms closer to the TX border may become strong to severe with wetting rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 37 80 37 84 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 41 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 37 83 40 85 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 41 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 84 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 42 81 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 43 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 86 40 88 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 49 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 73 39 77 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 50 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 47 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 20 Red River....................... 35 69 38 71 / 0 5 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 34 72 35 72 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 38 79 42 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 46 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 30 Espanola........................ 48 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 48 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 49 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 50 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 50 89 54 92 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 50 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 52 84 55 87 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 53 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 56 92 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 49 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 48 83 47 85 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 47 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 48 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 46 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 54 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 52 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 44 76 46 77 / 0 5 5 50 Raton........................... 44 81 46 81 / 0 5 0 40 Springer........................ 45 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 30 Las Vegas....................... 46 80 47 79 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton......................... 49 84 54 81 / 0 0 10 30 Roy............................. 47 82 52 81 / 0 0 5 30 Conchas......................... 53 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Rosa...................... 55 87 53 86 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 52 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 55 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 53 95 58 96 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 54 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 61 98 60 101 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 56 91 56 93 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 52 91 53 92 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44