461
FXUS65 KABQ 311138 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

The weather pattern for today and Saturday will continue to be
divisive with western New Mexico remaining dry and warm while much
of the eastern half stays warm, but more moist and humid with a
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms
could turn strong to severe in eastern New Mexico where large hail
and damaging downburst winds will be possible, mainly in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Drier air will sweep into the
Land of Enchantment on Sunday, carrying rain chances eastward out
of the state. Temperatures will consequently warm several degrees
in eastern areas of the state on Sunday with dry and warm to hot
conditions continuing through the middle of next week. Some faint
moisture may return late next week with low chances for rain
returning to some parts of northern and central New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Outflow from yesterday`s convective activity across eastern NM has
brought increased low-level moisture washing up to the east slopes
of the central mountain chain. Dewpoints along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley sit in the low teens while those along and east rise
into the 40s with 50s closer to the TX border and a few low 60s near
Roswell where low-level Gulf moisture resides. This boundary has
pushed through the gaps producing a strong east canyon wind at the
Albuquerque Sunport gusting to 40mph. These gusty east winds will
steadily diminish through the early morning hours, but not before
briefly replenishing low level moisture in the central Rio Grande
Valley this morning. Meanwhile, smoke is likely to have settled in
northern valley areas in the area from Abiquiu to Dulce to
Farmington from the Indios Fire. Did include a mention of haze in
this area for this morning and again late tonight into Saturday
morning. A less active day for the Blue 2 fire yesterday precluded
mention of smoke in the Sacramento Mountains this morning.

The focus shifts back to development of thunderstorms and potential
for severe weather across eastern NM this afternoon and evening. The
additional moisture across eastern NM will allow for increased
instability highlighted by 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Convective
initiation will favor the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains near 12pm to 1pm MDT where surface easterly upslope flow
will underlay a weak upper level perturbation skirting over CO.
Storms here will be collocated with drier air mixing out the higher
moisture, and subsequently lowering the amount of available fuel for
these initial storms to grow with. Westerly flow aloft will track
these storms east toward higher low-level moisture and instability
and these cells do have a chance to grow in strength as they reach
toward the TX border by 5pm to 7pm MDT timeframe. There is a slight
risk for severe highlighted by SPC in northeastern NM where timing
of these cells reaching higher instability and better bulk shear of
~30kts will occur. Less shear and lower chances for initiation will
be present further south, but some hi-res CAMs are showing a few
storms trying to get going over the Sacramento Mountains moving into
Chaves County. Did extend slight chance to chance PoPs to this area
to account for this.

Moisture swashes back west to the central mountain chain Friday
night into Saturday morning thanks to another round of convective
outflows. The synoptic setup for Saturday`s convective weather will
be slightly different with an approaching upper level troughing
pattern moving over AZ. This shortwave trough will be approaching
southeasterly return flow through most of eastern NM. Convective
initiation looks to favor more the south-central mountains with
lesser to equal initiation over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With
low-level surface moisture looking to hold on longer Saturday
compared to today, storms developing along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain in the early afternoon will have an easier
time reaching areas of higher instability and bulk shear by mid-
afternoon. SPC`s expansion of the slight risk area across eastern NM
is very reasonable as a result. Gusty winds and large hail will be
possible with these cells as they track east toward TX. Outflow
boundary collisions will expand coverage into east-central NM late
day and early evening. Convective activity steadily moves into TX or
dies out near the midnight hour Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Another subtle shortwave trough will move across the southwestern
states and over the central Rockies through Sunday. This will be
coupled with a lee-side surface trough that will deepen to about
992 mb Sunday afternoon. Not only will it boost breezes by a few
knots (both aloft and at the surface), but with more of a
southwesterly component working into the plains, much of the low
layer moisture should mix eastward into TX. This will shove storm
chances to the TX border and eastward while the drier downsloping
winds boost temperatures in eastern NM zones.

During the Monday through Wednesday timeframe, a gentle upstream
trough will slowly evolve into a closed subtropical circulation
offshore of the Baja peninsula while a continental ridge of high
pressure begins expanding over the Rio Grande valley, southern
Rockies and Great Basin, the precursor to the monsoon. Dry and
warm to hot temperatures will be the rule Monday and Tuesday, but
a weak backdoor front will sneak into eastern zones Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, setting readings down several degrees in
eastern zones by Wednesday afternoon. There could be some faint
moisture/surface convergence and/or upslope to kick off a couple
of storms over the Sangre de Cristos late Wednesday. Rain chances
appear higher into Thursday with a better southward tap of
subdued subtropical moisture and the possible aide of a
reinforcing backdoor front (mostly advertised by ECMWF and
Canadian runs).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

East canyon winds have subsided at KABQ this past hour. Low clouds
with pockets of MVFR persist through portions of Lincoln and
Chaves County and near KROW and KSRR this hour but are slowly
clearing from east to west. VFR prevails until the afternoon when
isolated to scattered thunderstorms initiate along the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo Mts around 19Z to 20Z. These cells will
track east to southeast over northeastern and east-central NM to
the TX border by 00Z to 02Z. Some of these storms will become
strong to severe. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible
further south along the Sacramento Mts and have maintained the
PROB30 at KROW highlighting the lesser chances there. Outflow from
these storms will kick moisture back west tonight likely giving
ABQ another east canyon wind, but not expecting it to reach AWW
strength as it did last night. There is a bit higher potential for
low clouds and IFR/MVFR cigs however.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

No large scale critical fire weather concerns are expected through
the forecast period. A generic dry and warm weather pattern will
hold true over western NM with higher moisture and better recoveries
holding true over eastern NM. Daily rounds of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms, with some becoming severe, will start along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain in the early afternoon and push
east to TX today and Saturday. The highlands and mainly the Middle
Rio Grande Valley zones will see the low level moisture swash east
and west each day with good recoveries in the morning and low near
10 percent MinRHs in the afternoon. High Haines6 will be present
through the western two-thirds of the state allowing for active
fires like the Indios Fire to produce active smoke plumes each
afternoon. Some of this smoke is likely to settle into surrounding
valley areas each morning as well.

Drier and warmer weather expands through eastern NM Sunday through
Tuesday thanks to increasing southwesterly flow pushing into the
region Sunday. Winds looks to produce elevated fire weather
conditions Sunday but subside in strength Monday and Tuesday.
Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the desert
southwest. While it looks fairly good, a backdoor front will
bring increased moisture into eastern NM by Wednesday and through
the end of next week, the question is where the upper ridge sets
up. Model discrepancies range from the ridge over the western
Great Basin to a more easterly position over the southern Great
Plains. This will greatly impact how afternoon thunderstorm
activity develops along and east of the central mountain chain and
how far west the low level moisture can push into the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  52  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  83  40  86  40 /   0   0  10   0
Cuba............................  83  47  84  49 /   0   0  10   0
Gallup..........................  87  43  87  42 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  82  47  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  87  45  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  85  48  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  85  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  82  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  90  42  90  41 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  93  55  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  42  79  42 /   5   0  20   5
Los Alamos......................  80  55  82  56 /  10   5  20   5
Pecos...........................  81  52  82  52 /  20  10  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  75  48  77  49 /  10  10  30  10
Red River.......................  71  41  73  43 /  20  20  40  10
Angel Fire......................  74  37  75  39 /  20  20  30  10
Taos............................  82  44  83  45 /  10  10  20  10
Mora............................  78  45  78  46 /  30  20  30  20
Espanola........................  87  51  90  52 /   5   5  20   5
Santa Fe........................  83  55  85  54 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  87  53  88  53 /   5   5  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  60  90  61 /   0   5   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  57  92  58 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  53  94  57 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  93  51  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  92  56  93  59 /   0   0   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  93  49  93  54 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  93  57  93  59 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  93  51  93  55 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  87  57  88  59 /   0   5   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  91  57  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  95  59  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  52  83  55 /   0   5  10   5
Tijeras.........................  85  52  86  55 /   0   5   5   5
Edgewood........................  86  49  88  52 /   5   5  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  45  88  48 /   5   5  10   5
Clines Corners..................  81  48  83  50 /  10  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  85  49  86  54 /   5   5   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  85  49  86  53 /   5   5   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  90  57  90  57 /   5   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  81  53  83  54 /  10   0  20  10
Capulin.........................  74  47  77  51 /  60  50  40  20
Raton...........................  80  47  80  48 /  50  40  30  10
Springer........................  80  49  81  49 /  50  30  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  79  49  80  50 /  50  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  78  54  83  58 /  40  30  20  20
Roy.............................  78  52  81  54 /  40  30  30  30
Conchas.........................  86  57  90  60 /  30  30  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  85  56  86  57 /  30  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  86  57  89  61 /  40  30  20  30
Clovis..........................  85  60  89  62 /  10  30  20  30
Portales........................  87  58  91  60 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  88  58  91  59 /  10  30  20  20
Roswell.........................  92  65  95  66 /  20  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  86  56  88  56 /  20   5  40  10
Elk.............................  86  53  89  54 /  20   0  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24