Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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294 FXUS65 KABQ 310540 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1140 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Strong to severe storms are possible in eastern NM today and again Friday and Saturday afternoons. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats each day, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Breezy east winds are possible in eastern Albuquerque both tonight and Friday night, but confidence in gusty winds is relatively low. Drier air takes over Sunday, pushing moisture to the east and helping dry weather prevail areawide Sunday through the middle of next week. Temperatures will also soar to the highest values of the season thus far early to mid-next week when highs will push 105 degrees in Roswell. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Updrafts have begun to develop within the past couple hours along the dryline in far eastern NM. Hail will be the main severe threat over the next few hours as these storms intensify in the moderately sheared environment. There are several boundaries around the area so collisions could help storms congeal into a line by the time they exit into TX around 6PM this evening. There`s a chance that another storm grazes the northeast corner of the state late this evening, but it would likely be elevated given the surface stabilization in the wake of this afternoon`s round of storms. The aformentioned cluster of storms over the TX Panhandle will send an outflow boundary south and west overnight, with gusts up to 30kts possible in its wake. It should eventually push through the gaps of the central mtn chain around midnight. Models have been slow to catch onto the east wind, but expecting gusts to around 25kts through Tijeras canyon. Friday`s storms will once again favor the northeast where SPC has already introduced a slight risk for severe storms. Gusty showers and storms are possible throughout central NM and along the central mountain chain at the western edge of the dryline, especially if the boundary pushes further west tonight than currently modeled thanks a deep cold pool. The HREF is already showing a greater than 50% chance of 40kts of bulk speed shear across eastern NM, supporting strong updraft development with storms that do develop. Storms will likely cluster together, transitioning the threat over to damaging wind gusts later in the afternoon closer to the TX border. High LCLs should limit the tornado potential, but a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out. Another westward moisture surge is expected Friday night after the evening round of storms. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 With the westward moisture surge Friday night, convective activity is expected to develop further west than previous days. A westerly shortwave moving over central NM will also help storms develop slightly further south than previous days. Storms will quickly race off to the east during the afternoon and exit into TX during the evening. A much drier airmass will enter from the west Sunday and remain over the state early in the week thanks to troughing over the northern Rockies. Mid and upper level winds will come up a bit, particularly in the northern mountains and adjacent highlands with deep afternoon mixing. Mostly sunny skies and the very unstable boundary layer will help to temps rise to several degrees above seasonal averages areawide. Confidence is high that a ridge will continue to amplify over the Great Basin mid-week, keeping dry northwesterly flow over New Mexico. During this time frame, temperatures will soar to the highest values of the season thus far with Roswell approaching 105F and Santa Fe in the low 90s. This will begin to create some high heat risk across Chaves county, but clear dry nights should at least help temps cool off into the mid 60s overnight. There is still a 50/50 split in the models on whether the ridge will continue to amplify over the Pacific Northwest or further east over the spine of the Rockies. The former scenario would increase the chances of backdoor cold front surges with any troughs descending into the high plains, but the latter may actually favor greater precipitation chances with moisture sneaking up underneath the ridge. Either way, it looks to be hot with highs 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Conditions continue to clear over eastern NM with remnant showers and a few isold thunderstorms between KTCC and KCAO moving east into the TX Panhandle this hour. Outflow boundaries providing an easterly wind shift have made it into the east mountain communities and will reach KABQ and KSAF between 06Z and 08Z. East canyon winds gusting 18 to 25kts can be expected at these terminals, likely reaching KSAF first near 06Z and KABQ by 08Z. Wind directions at KAEG will be quite tricky as winds wrapping around the northern side of the Sandia Crest will be more northerly, competing against the easterly winds squeezing through the Tijeras Canyon. Did including a TEMPO group here to try and account for this. Some low clouds are possible across the eastern plains tonight, but confidence is low for any single terminal like KLVS, KTCC and KROW so only included a generic few/sct mention. Otherwise, the main TAF impact will be afternoon convection initiating along the east slopes of the central mountain chain from KRTN to KLVS to KSRR near 19Z Friday. These scattered thunderstorms will progress eastward toward TX, reaching the border after 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Strong to severe storms are possible each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with the best chances in the far eastern plains near the TX border. Gusty showers and storms are possible along the western edge of the dryline, generally close to the central mountain chain Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Drier air enters from the west late on Saturday and sticks around through at least mid-next week, allowing dry and hot conditions to prevail. Afternoon minimum humidity will be in the single digits in most areas each afternoon and deep afternoon mixing will bring some gustier winds down to the surface, particularly in the northeast. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are likely during this timeframe with near critical conditions in the east Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the western US around the middle of the week, although there is some uncertainty with regard to its exact location. If the ridge develops over the Rockies or even slightly east, then some moisture may be able to sneak underneath the ridge, resulting in higher humidities and and increased shower and storm chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 88 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 83 42 85 / 5 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 46 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 40 86 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 45 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 42 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 46 84 48 86 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 54 85 55 86 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 49 82 52 84 / 0 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 90 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 56 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 76 44 78 / 5 5 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 55 80 55 81 / 0 10 5 20 Pecos........................... 48 82 52 82 / 0 20 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 75 48 77 / 10 20 10 30 Red River....................... 38 70 41 71 / 10 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 33 74 39 74 / 0 30 20 30 Taos............................ 41 82 45 82 / 0 10 10 20 Mora............................ 44 77 46 77 / 5 30 20 40 Espanola........................ 50 88 52 89 / 0 10 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 53 82 54 83 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 86 53 87 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 89 59 89 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 90 58 91 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 52 92 54 93 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 56 91 57 92 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 52 92 54 93 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 54 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 52 92 55 93 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 58 87 58 88 / 0 5 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 57 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 58 95 59 97 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 81 53 82 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 53 85 53 86 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 51 86 50 86 / 0 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 87 48 88 / 0 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 48 80 51 81 / 0 20 10 20 Mountainair..................... 50 85 50 86 / 0 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 48 86 51 87 / 0 10 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 56 91 58 90 / 0 5 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 52 83 54 83 / 0 10 5 20 Capulin......................... 46 74 48 77 / 30 70 30 50 Raton........................... 46 81 48 80 / 20 60 20 40 Springer........................ 48 81 49 81 / 5 50 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 47 78 49 77 / 5 40 20 30 Clayton......................... 53 80 54 83 / 30 40 40 40 Roy............................. 51 79 52 80 / 20 50 30 40 Conchas......................... 57 86 58 89 / 20 40 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 55 85 57 86 / 5 30 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 56 85 58 88 / 20 30 40 20 Clovis.......................... 58 85 61 88 / 20 20 30 20 Portales........................ 58 87 60 91 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 57 89 59 91 / 10 20 30 20 Roswell......................... 62 93 65 94 / 0 5 10 20 Picacho......................... 56 87 55 88 / 0 10 5 20 Elk............................. 53 87 54 87 / 0 5 5 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...24