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FXAK67 PAJK 120642
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1042 PM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.UPDATE...Update to Long Term Discussion

&&

.SHORT TERM...Breezy conditions primarily for the evening portion
of today, breaks in clouds for the southern panhandle, and a
system moving in from the southwest describes the next 36 hours.
We are currently in a post frontal environment with plenty of dry,
warm air advection above 700 mb, sapping rain chances south of
Angoon. Areas on the west face of mountains such as Craig,
Klawock, and Hydaburg are expected to stay relatively socked in
from the westerly moist flow at the surface, upsloping on the
mountains. However, on the wayward side of the mountains, such as
Ketchikan, sunnier skies and less clouds are present.

Going into tomorrow, another developing system looks to move in
from the southwest, with a warm front moving up from the south. At
this time, we are expecting this warm front to move up as far as
Angoon, bringing more precipitation and winds. Not expecting
nearly as much precipitation compared to this last Thursday`s
system. While freezing levels look above 10,000 ft yet again, the
full depth of saturation extends only to around 600 mb. That in
combination with the bulk of the jet aloft passing to the south,
means that less moisture looks to push into the panhandle. While
still expecting some moderate rainfall in the southern panhandle,
no flooding is expected.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...

Key messages:
- Low continues precip for southern panhandle Sunday morning
- High pushes up from the south, dry but clouds linger next week

Details: Remaining precipitation over the southern and central
panhandle will diminish through the day, allowing potential for
blue skies to peek out in northernmost regions. Ridging moving
north through the gulf will push the low out of the panhandle and
set up for potential drier weather by Sunday afternoon. Clouds
are expected to linger through the beginning of next week, with
potential for skies to clear out in the southern panhandle for
Tuesday. Clearing skies, from south to north, along with warmer
temperatures aloft should allow for temperatures to rise near 70
degrees at the surface for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the highest chances for the southern panhandle and
communities in the inner channels. These temperatures could be
offset in many areas by the development of an afternoon sea
breeze. In the interior, Hyder could even see temperatures reach
near 80 degrees during this time.

A disorganized surface level low with associated upper level
troughing looks to bring precipitation back to the northern
panhandle Thursday, spreading south through Friday. Model spread
leaves much to be desired at this point, with many aspects of this
system varying from run to run including timing and associated
precipitation amounts. Stay tuned for further updates as we go
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../06z Saturday thru 06z Sunday/ Scattered showers are
lingering over the region Friday evening with quite apparent
mountain wave clouds visible with satellite imagery under the W-SW
flow. The showers are causing variable conditions changing from VFR
down to MVFR or even IFR CIGs at times, therefore extended tempos
are needed. After about 12z, expect to feel the influence of the
next low approaching the southern panhandle from the SW. This will
shift wind directions across the north and cause steady rain and
MVFR conditions across the south for most of Saturday. The
northern edge of the rain should lie just south of PAJN/PAGS, but
wouldn`t rule out some lower conditions there in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: Westerly moderate to fresh breezes (20 knots) will give
way tonight to southeasterly winds as the next incoming system
moves up from the southwest. Interestingly enough, run to run
models have the low track shifting ever so slightly northward, to
between the tip of Baranof Island and Sitka. A somewhat uncommon
pattern for the panhandle, will result in strong breezes to near
gales for the entrance to Dixon and the western outer coast of
Prince of Wales Island. A tip jet is expected to develop out of
Cross Sound, enhancing winds from the north to 20-25 knots. This
system is expected to become stationary, blocked by the mountains,
before shifting southward as the jet aloft shifts southward.

Inside: A southerly push is currently working its way through Icy
Strait, Stephens Passage, and soon to be Lynn Canal through this
evening. For Icy Strait, gap flow is expected to bring winds up to
a fresh to strong breeze (20-25 kt) from the SW. With the westerly
low level CAA, expecting continued pressure rises, which will is
currently driving the southerly push that will move into Lynn
Canal shortly. With the incoming system moving in from the
southwest, expecting a shift to the NE in Frederick Sound,
northern Chatham Strait, and easterlies in Sumner Strait, all up
to a moderate to fresh breeze. Clarence is expected to increase to
at least a small craft as the warm front moves in from the south.
Near Point Couverden, not expecting any tip jet development, as
sunny skies in Canada is expected to cause lower pressure, thus
limiting pressure gradient driven flow in Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-036-641-642-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....ZTK/STJ
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...NC

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